AZERBAIJAN: AIRLINES THREATEN TO CEASE BAKU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000400 SIPDIS COMMERCE FOR DANICA STARKS, EEB/CBA FOR TIM GILMAN, EEB/TRA FOR JOHN BYERLY, MOSCOW FAA FOR BRIAN STAURSETH, FRANKFURT FOR FRDCD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2019 TAGS: ECON EAIR ETRD ADCO AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: AIRLINES THREATEN TO CEASE BAKU SERVICE, THEN PULL BACK Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Rob Garverick for reasons 1 .4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 22, 2009, officials at Baku's Heydar Aliyev International Airport announced that a nightly curfew, to begin July 2, 2009, would shut the airport from 0000 to 0700. Airlines reacted with shock and said they might cease operations to Baku, as trans-Atlantic connections in Europe would be jeopardized. Less than two weeks later, though, Lufthansa and BMI both announced new timetables that accommodate the curfew. Rumors as to why the curfew was enacted range from the First Lady's insomnia to aggressive anti-competitive tactics from national carrier Azal. Even if all foreign airlines adjust their schedules, a pending 950,000 USD lawsuit against Lufthansa for "mental anguish" caused by a flight delay in December 2008 continues. If the lawsuit is not resolved according to international legal conventions, the carrier may respond by ceasing service, and the Embassy's classified pouch, as well as other official correspondence and travel, could be affected. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On April 22, 2009 officials at Baku,s Heydar Aliyev International Airport announced that the airport would begin a nightly curfew from 0000 to 0700 each night, effective July 2, 2009. The announcement stated that exceptions would be made for "state, sanitary (medical),humanitarian, and emergency" flights. Foreign airlines said the short notice was not in compliance with international norms. At present, Austrian, Lufthansa, and Baltic Airlines operate all of their flights within the proposed curfew window, and BMI, Turkish Airlines, and Aeroflot operate a portion of their flights within the window. Wolfgang Groeger, the Country Manager for Austrian Airlines, told participants in an AmCham meeting that if the curfew goes ahead, Austrian may cease operations to Baku on either a temporary or a permanent basis. Control of the airport is (on paper) now separate from control of the airline, but business leaders and foreign airline staff all believe that true control of both still rests in the hands of Azerbaijan Airlines (Azal) President Jahangir Askerov. -------------- PRESERVING WHOSE ENVIRONMENT? -------------- ¶3. (U) Rumors abound as to why this curfew was imposed. Officially, Azal says the curfew was imposed "to ensure convenience and normal rest for Baku residents at night." The airport is located 25 km from Baku in a sparsely populated area, and most landing aircraft approach the runway from over the Caspian Sea. The road to the airport offers a view of land polluted by centuries of oil production. ¶4. (C) The President's summer cottage is on the shores of the Caspian, not far from the airport, and one theory has it that First Lady Mehriban Aliyeva (who rumor suggests was also behind an earlier ban on automotive window tinting) could not sleep and ordered her husband to do something about it. On the other hand, some Baku businessmen say that they suspect the curfew may be an attempt by airport authorities to cut costs. Azal has been losing money, laying off some employees and not paying salaries to others. In fact, these businessmen say Azal has openly admitted to them the reason for the nighttime shutdown is to cut more jobs. Others point to a history of anti-competitive acts by Azal as evidence the airline is trying to drive foreign competition out of Baku. Those who subscribe to this belief hold that the exits of KLM, Swiss, and Emirates in recent years underscore the hostile nature of Azal and GOAJ officials. In the murky political environment of Baku, each of these theories is plausible. -------------- -------------- "WE MAY CEASE FLIGHTS." (PAUSE) "HERE IS OUR NEW TIMETABLE." -------------- -------------- ¶5. (U) International businesses, all of which depend on regular connections to the outside world, were quite alarmed at rumors that some or all western airlines might cease operations in Baku. In response, AmCham's Tourism Committee asked Austrian Airlines country manager Wolfgang Groeger to BAKU 00000400 002 OF 003 speak to AmCham members on May 4 about the possible effects this ban would have on foreign airlines. Groeger said that while airport curfews are common worldwide, it is generally accepted practice to announce them one year in advance to allow airlines time to reschedule their aircraft. Groeger explained that because aircraft are so expensive, airlines schedule carefully to ensure maximum utilization and minimum time on the ground. Thus, if Baku authorities ask him to land several hours later, he does not simply have an extra jet on standby. Austrian must make another jet available at that hour by removing it from another route. This sets off a chain reaction in the scheduling system, where another aircraft must be substituted for the one that is now moved to Baku. Finally, all these new schedules must be harmonized to ensure connections work. Groeger said that if a flight from Baku reaches Vienna after connections to North America have departed, customers will choose another airline rather than spend a night in Vienna. This choreography takes time, he said, and if Austrian cannot find an available jet at the time slot requested by the GOAJ, they may temporarily or permanently cease Baku service. Groeger said no final decision has been made by Austrian because they still hold hope the GOAJ will grant a delay on this curfew. ¶6. (C) Lufthansa General Manager for Azerbaijan Hakan Tin first pled a similar case to the Embassy, but in a surprise move, Lufthansa told EmbOffs this week that it was able to swiftly adjust its schedule (its jets will now depart Baku at 08:00 daily) and has published this new timetable on its website. Similarly, BMI also published a new schedule. All its flights to London were outside the curfew, but the flights to Baku, which were not, have now been moved about 3.5 hours earlier, reaching Baku at 22:50 daily. Austrian, Azal, Turkish Airlines, and Aeroflot have not yet announced their new schedules, and it is unclear if they will reduce operations. (Turkish flies from Istanbul 21 times per week.) -------------- -------------- EVERYTHING'S SOLVED... EXCEPT THAT PESKY $1M OF "ANGUISH" -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Lufthansa still suffers from a separate problem: an ongoing lawsuit which has frozen its local bank accounts, making it difficult for the airline to continue to do business. A group of seven angry (and presumably well-connected) passengers sued the airline in local court after weather conditions and a technical alert forced their flight to divert to Ashgabat. After servicing Ashgabat, the flight continued back to Baku. (The flights normally stop in Baku both ways between Frankfurt and Ashgabat.) The passengers argued that the delay had caused them "mental anguish" and demanded Lufthansa pay them 100,000 EUR each (approx. 955,000 USD total) in compensation. None of the other passengers on board that flight have lodged any lawsuit claiming any anguish. The court has not yet ruled on the case but has frozen Lufthansa's local bank account, making it difficult for the company to do business. Lufthansa General Manager for Azerbaijan Hakan Tin said there is no basis for such a claim in the Warsaw Convention (which limits liability in cases of physical injury to approx. 9,300 USD per passenger). Lufthansa has appealed the asset freeze, and Tin says that he recently scored a small victory: the Supreme Court recently returned this case to the Court of First Instance for what Tin called "further negotiation." Tin says Lufthansa refuses to negotiate and insists on abiding by the Warsaw Convention. Local courts have a reputation of being easily bought or instructed from atop, and if the court finds in favor of the plaintiffs, Lufthansa's frozen assets are likely to be disbursed before the case completes the appeal process. In this case, Tin says the airline would consider ceasing operations. He says the worry is not merely the loss of the money, but the precedent it sets, opening the door for Lufthansa to continue to suffer such losses by vindictive, well-connected passengers. -------------- WHAT HAPPENS TO THE CLASSIFIED POUCH? -------------- ¶8. (C) If Lufthansa operations were shut down, the primary BAKU 00000400 003 OF 003 impact to Embassy operations would be a disruption of the classified pouch. Embassy Baku is served by a diplomatic courier based at the hub in Frankfurt; that same courier continues to Ashgabat on board the same jet. If Lufthansa ceased Frankfurt ) Baku operations, it is not immediately clear how the Department would re-route the classified pouch. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: The high drama of recent weeks, in which the business community and the airlines warned that Baku would fall off the map, appears to have toned down. It's unclear if Lufthansa really would cease Baku operations, but if they did, the Embassy's classified pouch operations could be seriously affected. Finally, it's also unclear, and also unlikely, that these seven passengers are acting on their own. It's more likely they are cogs in a larger machine (directed by Azal or some other powerful entity) to send a message that Lufthansa has overstayed its welcome in Azerbaijan. End Comment. LU