AZERBAIJAN: TURKISH AMBASSADOR PLEADS FOR REAL N-K

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000269 SIPDIS NOFORN DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, DAS BRYZA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2034 TAGS: PREL TU AM AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: TURKISH AMBASSADOR PLEADS FOR REAL N-K PROGRESS TO ACCOMPANY ARMENIAN OPENING REF: BAKU 258 (NOTAL) Classified By: Ambassador Anne Derse, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S/NF) Summary. Turkish Ambassador Hilusi Kilic called Ambassador Derse Sunday April 5 to relay his deep alarm at the coming "crisis" in Azerbaijan-Turkey relations and plead for U.S. assistance to ensure that Armenia continues to negotiate in good faith on Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) after achieving an agreement with Turkey to open the border and begin normalization of relations. Kilic relayed that the GOAJ had made it clear to him that if Turkey expects Azerbaijan to accept the border opening without a prior solution to N-K, then Turkey must demand Armenian agreement to the Minsk Group's Basic Principles. Shaken by his government's failure to convince President Aliyev to attend the Istanbul summit and by gathering signals that the rapprochement will have serious domestic political consequences in both Turkey and Azerbaijan, Kilic expressed hope that President Obama's personal involvement in the issue would suffice to avert a total breakdown in relations. End Summary. ¶2. (S/NF) Turkish Ambassador in Baku Hilusi Kilic asked to meet the Ambassador on Sunday, April 5 to relay his deep alarm over the looming &crisis8 in Turkey-Azerbaijani relations ) the most serious since Azerbaijan,s independence, he said ) and to plead for US assistance in pushing the Armenians to be constructive on NK and in crafting a &win-win-win8 solution. &We want to win Armenia, but not at the cost of losing Azerbaijan, the Turkic world, the Southern Corridor. We are trying to do something good (with the Armenians),but we are doing something bad too (with Azerbaijan). We have to balance. The processes must go together. We want to resolve the Armenian problem but we must think of Azerbaijan too ) why can,t we settle both at the same time? We cannot let Turkish-Azerbaijan relations crash. It is unimaginable, the costs are too high.8 He said the GOAJ has made clear to him that they want Armenian agreement on the Basic Principles as the price for their accepting the border opening. ¶3. (S/NF) Kilic said he is &in shock8 that Erdogan,s call Saturday to President Aliyev, which followed calls from Secretary Clinton and President Gul the previous evening, failed to win Aliyev,s presence in Istanbul. Erdogan pitched Aliyev hard on the opportunity Istanbul presented for discussion with President Obama and Turkish leadership, to no avail. Erdogan excused himself to Aliyev saying that he had been so busy during the elections he did not know how far the Turkey-Armenia issue had gone. President Gul also had spoken to Aliyev Friday, at which time Aliyev said he had not seen Gul,s statement with respect to reports that agreement to open borders would be signed April 16. The Turkish Embassy sent that statement and Erdogan,s London statement that strongly associated the border opening to the N-K issue to Aliyev, but they had not sufficed to win his presence. ¶4. (S/NF) Kilic pointed to strong reaction in the Azeri press Sunday, when the GOAJ began to comment publicly on the negative impact of the Turkey/Armenia process on prospects for resolution of NK. In addition to the MFA statement that Turkish-Armenian normalization was not in Azerbaijan,s interests, the Parliament, think-tank analysts, the opposition, had all commented strongly against Turkish &betrayal.8 Turkish citizens are getting rude comments from people on the street and the Embassy staff is getting threatening phone calls. It will get worse, he predicted, in Azerbaijan and in Turkey too. Next week, he expected, the Turkish opposition will take off the gloves and use this issue to strike a blow at Erdogan and the AKP. It will resonate with the Turkish public. Further, he said, Russia, Iran and Armenia are joined in pushing Turkish normalization without NK progress ) they want Azerbaijan and Turkey to be split, this strengthens their geopolitical position. ¶5. (S/NF) Kilic's view is that only U.S. pressure can compel the Armenians to stay constructively engaged in the N-K process. &We need US help to push the Armenians. We have to push them. They are not in a hurry ) they occupy Azerbaijan,s territory. If they want peace with Turkey at least they can be constructive. We are trying to do our best but everyone knows Azerbaijan,s territory is occupied by Armenia, and it is because of the Armenian lobbies in the US and Europe that Azerbaijan is paying the bill. It is not fair. Azerbaijan feels alone, between Russia and Iran.8 BAKU 00000269 002 OF 002 He said President Obama had shown with his work reassuring Turkey about the nomination of Anders Fogh Rasmussen to be NATO SYG that &he will lead, he will be the leader of the world.8 Turkey &trusts him and appreciates his initiative.8 Turkey needs President Obama's leadership on this issue, too, he said. ¶6. (S/NF) Ambassador reiterated to Kilic the points she and EUR DAS Matthew Bryza had made when she hosted Kilic at dinner (septel),namely that the United States supports Turkey's normalization process with Armenia; while at the same time recognizing that intensified effort is necessary to keep the N-K process moving in this time of change. The Secretary's personal involvement in Minsk Group issues and her dispatching DAS Bryza to Baku twice in one week to consult the GOAJ, are clear indications that the USG is serious about shepherding both sides of the N-K conflict to a just and lasting settlement. Comment -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) It was not fully clear whether Kilic's intensity represented official Ankara's thinking or his own views. The GOAJ has subjected Turkey, often through Kilic personally, to an intense display of displeasure and bluntly predicted a near-total breakdown in relations. In any case it has been our impression for some time that the Turkish Embassy has been lobbying the GOT furiously to "balance" the steps it takes so as not to destroy relations with its longtime ally Azerbaijan, while mending them with the Armenians. DERSE