AZERBAIJAN: MFA DEPMIN FURTHER EXPLAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000195 SIPDIS EUR FOR MATT BRYZA E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2019 TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS MARR AF AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: MFA DEPMIN FURTHER EXPLAINS AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN OUTLOOK REF: BAKU 160 Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C)Summary: Azerbaijan Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov described a stark situation in Pakistan and expressed fears of Afghanistan losing control of its southern regions in a February 2 meeting with the Ambassador. Social instability and corruption are exacerbating the situation, and many ordinary Afghans now see the NATO presence as an "intervention of values." To resolve the crisis in South Asia, he said, the Obama Administration ""needs to redefine goals," linking Afghanistan and Pakistan security and developmental issues. Moreover, he said, "we have to talk to the Taliban." Azerbaijan is active in Afghanistan, with 90 troops on the ground and working to craft an ambitious assistance program. Azerbaijan also increasingly sees Afghanistan as a business opportunity. End Summary ¶2. (C) Ambassador met February 2 with Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Araz Azimov to follow up on her recent conversation with President Aliyev on the U.S. strategic review of Afghanistan/ Pakistan (ref). Azimov, who served as an interpreter in the Soviet Army in Afghanistan 1980-1983, offered many insights, based on experience in South Asia and a September 2008 visit to the region. Azerbaijan, South Asia "Friends" -------------- ¶3. (C) Pakistan and Afghanistan, Azimov said, are "friends of Azerbaijan." Baku sees South Asia as a strategic region, and possibly as a future "exit route" for oil, gas and related products. With this in mind, Azerbaijan has promoted investment in Afghanistan, with a "wealthy private Azerbaijani" having already purchased a small oil refinery near Herat. ¶4. (C) Pakistan, however, is unstable and unpredictable, Azimov said. Pervez Musharraf was "in control," but did not hold on to power. As a result of opposition harassment, he "suffered a lot," but "did not deserve that." Now, Azimov said, the country is ruled by a "group of politicians," who cannot maintain order. This situation, he said, is untenable. Afghanistan, meanwhile, is at risk of losing control of southern regions. Infrastructure is not well developed and corruption is rampant. In this regard, "Afghanistan had not changed in 26 years." NATO cannot cover and protect the entire country; the responsibility is too large. Corruption, he fears, has spread to Afghanistan,s military, and narcotics are a huge problem. ¶5. (C) Azimov said that following his September 2008 visit to Afghanistan, which included an inter-agency team, he prepared a report for the Foreign Minister. That report concluded that Afghanistan,s long run is unclear, with the country,s security environmental at a critical stage. Social instability, as a result of corruption and the lack of social infrastructure, is a threat to the central government. Azimov stated that "foreign invaders" have a poor track record in Afghanistan; Soviet and British experience in the region notwithstanding. Many Afghans now see the NATO presence as an "intervention of values." In general, Afghans see U.S. soldiers as "a threat," while Turkish or other Muslim soldiers are "ok." Time To Redefine Goals -------------- ¶6. (C) Azimov noted that the U.S. and NATO have already been in Afghanistan for seven years, and the Obama Administration "needs to redefine goals." Washington should pursue a regional strategy, considering Afghanistan and Pakistan together. "This is exactly what the Obama Administration is doing," he added. For example, the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is 2,600 kilometers long, and has only one checkpoint. BAKU 00000195 002 OF 002 Thus, it is impossible to control. He also wondered aloud what type of role Russia might play in Afghanistan. Will the U.S. make an offer? "Moscow is waiting to hear." ¶7. (C) Azimov suggested that Westerners should not "try to win the ideological argument" against the Taliban in Afghanistan. The Taliban may not be universally popular ) and even loathed by some elements of the population ) but it is "part of the fabric" of the country. Thus, he said, to resolve the crisis in Afghanistan, "we have to talk to the Taliban." Azimov questioned the legitimacy of elections in Afghanistan, noting the "voting is highly suspect." Individuals, he said, do not have voices, as "blocs are determined by clans." Moreover, there is no national census, so determining voter lists is impossible. Azerbaijan to Craft Assistance Plan -------------- ¶8. (C) The Ambassador asked Azimov to describe ongoing and proposed areas of cooperation between Azerbaijan and Afghanistan. Much is taking place, the Deputy Minister said, as a result of his September 2008 visit to Kabul and a reciprocal Afghan visit to Baku in December 2008. The GOAJ, he said, is offering to conduct courses, seminars and other training activities, focused on border control, demining and law enforcement. The MFA,s Diplomatic Academy has also reached out to Afghanistan,s Foreign Ministry with a proposal to train new diplomats in Baku in the future. Moreover, Baku is prepared to fund construction of a girls school in Afghanistan and is offering to build hospitals and clinics. Azimov noted that following his September visit to Kabul, Afghanistan,s Foreign Minister visited Baku late last year. At that point, Azerbaijan offered assistance projects to Afghanistan. Baku is still waiting for an official response. In support of coalition activities, Azerbaijan agreed last year to double its military presence in Afghanistan. Ninety troops are now in place. Azerbaijan has an embassy in Pakistan and maintains a diplomatic "office" in Kabul. Comment: Azerbaijan Looks East -------------- ¶9. (C) DepMin Azimov clearly considers himself an expert on issues related to Afghanistan, based on his Soviet army experience. Being able to speak a local language is a great benefit, and the DepMin noted repeatedly his discussions with "ordinary people." Azerbaijan has already reached out to Kabul to offer assistance and is eager to expand cooperation. Baku also sees Afghanistan as a business opportunity, particularly as relations with Turkmenistan improve. DERSE