STAFFDEL SOCHA'S VISIT TO AZERBAIJAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000153 SIPDIS DEPT FPR EUR/CARC, EUR/PGI (MTARNOWKA) E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2019 TAGS: AJ IR KISL PGOV PHUM PREL TU SUBJECT: STAFFDEL SOCHA'S VISIT TO AZERBAIJAN BAKU 00000153 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On 15-17 February 2009, Embassy Baku hosted Senior Policy Adviser Chris Socha and Legislative Assistant Jack Julson from the staff of Senator DeMint (R-SC). Staff del expressed interest in energy issues; security issues, particularly vis-a-vis Russia and Iran, and the effectiveness of U.S. assistance. Staffdel met with the Country Team, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, opposition members and the director of the embattled Radio Liberty, in addition to touring the BP-run Sangachal Terminal. End Summary. MFA on Energy, Regional Relations -------------- ¶2. (C) Staffdel met the MFA Director of the Security Affairs Department Galib Israfilov. Israfilov called for increased U.S. training and equipment for Azerbaijan's border service, citing the last year,s interception of suspect materials from Russia bound for the Bushehr reactor complex. (Note: Ultimately the shipment was found not to violate any existing sanctions and was permitted to proceed. End Note.) On energy, Israfilov said that Azerbaijan was seeking additional westerly routes for its oil and gas, but needs beter terms from its European partners. The state oil company (SOCAR) is also considering Russian proposals to buy all of Azerbaijan's gas. ¶3. (C) Turning to Azerbaijan's relations with its neighbors, Israfilov noted Russia's greater flexibility since the August 2008 war with Georgia, and told Socha that the U.S. must take care not to "lag behind" Russia and take a more active role in the OSCE Minsk Group, although he was not specific as to what that meant. Asked about Iran, Israfilov replied that he felt that country was more concerned with the Middle East than with Azerbaijan (note: comments on Russia and Iran differ markedly from what Israfilov and others tell us routinely. However, he may simply have been avoiding making a controversial statement to an unfamiliar interlocutor. End Note.) Meetings with civic and opposition leaders -------------- ¶4. (C) On the civic front, Staffdel met with parliamentarian and former presidential candidate Iqbal Aghazade, who received 2.86% of the vote and came in second place in the 2008 Azerbaijani Presidential elections, as well as Khadija Ismayilova, the director of the Azerbaijani service of Radio Liberty, which was recently banned from broadcasting on FM frequencies in Azerbaijan. Aghazade discussed the absence of political opposition in countering corruption in government. He noted that 42% of the national budget comes from oil, and that there must be opposition members represented in the control of oil funds as well as in the control of other entities, such as television. Mr. Aghazade also commented on the censure of Radio Liberty, saying that the opposition was the &main inhabitants8 of RL; he said that the decision to take Radio Liberty off the air had hurt the government, as Radio Liberty was the main influence for defining opinion in Azerbaijan. He optimistically predicted that RL would be back on the air after the 18 March constitutional referendum. ¶5. (C) In contrast, Director of the Radio Liberty station in Azerbaijan Khadija Ismayilova doubted that it would be back on the air after the referendum. She said that Internet listenership had tripled since the station was pulled off of FM, although only 6 per cent of Azerbaijanis are thought to use the Internet more than once a week. Ismayilova remarked ironically that by taking Radio Liberty off of the air, the GOAJ had undercut its stated priority of promoting Azerbaijani language and culture - the station's material is widely acknowledged to be the highest-quality Azerbaijani programming on offer. ¶6. (C) Staffdel heard the Embassy's views on a full range of topics at a lunch with the Ambassador and country team members and dinner with the assistant DATT and Poloff specializing in security issues. USAID Mission Director noted that funding for programs in Azerbaijan had decreased substantially from a high of $30 million annually several years ago to $14 million now. More money is needed to fund important projects such as English language programs and democratic development. BAKU 00000153 002.2 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Ambassador and Socha agreed that more active engagement and incentives to the GOAJ will encourage democratic reform. The GOAJ, in evaluating its relationship with the USG, notes cooperation on counter-terrorism, energy, sending troops to Iraq and Afghanistan, and permitting U.S. overflights; in return, the GOAJ does not believe that the USG gives Azerbaijan enough credit for democratic and political reforms. To forge closer ties to Azerbaijan for the sake of slowing Russian/Iranian influence and forging a Southern EnergyCorridor for Europe, the U.S. should accelerate engagement, provide more input into the N-K process, become a part of Azerbaijan,s security solution, and, in general, stepping up efforts to treat the GOAJ as a partner. Staffdel's confirmation that several sites in Azerbaijan are being considered as part of the plan to compensate for the possible loss of Manas magnifies these points. The Ambassador noted that the GOAJ, in return for allowing the U.S. to establish a greater presence in Azerbaijan, would, in particular, seek a closer security relationship with the U.S. ¶8. (C) Comment: Staffdel Socha was well informed on regional energy and security issues, and used their time wisely in Baku to gather additional input and share ideas with Azerbaijani officials and Embassy employees. The visit was timely, as Azerbaijan looks to the USG for signals from the new administration on foreign policy priorities and the USG reevaluates its strategic interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia regions. ¶9. (U) Staffdel Socha did not have an opportunity to review this message. DERSE