DHI QAR: AT LAST, A COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000954

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: DHI QAR: AT LAST, A COALITION

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Fox for reason 1.4 (d).


1. (SBU) After long negotiations, representatives of the

Dhi Qar branches of the Da'wa/State of Law, National Reform
Trend, and the Sadrist Free and Independent People's Trend
parties jointly announced they had formed a coalition in the
provincial council (PC),dubbed the "Coalition for Dhi Qar"
(CDQ). Prospective Council members from each party, which
together control 24 seats of the 31-seat council (13 for
Da'wa, seven for the Sadrists, and four for the National
Reform Trend),shared the stage to announce the coalition.
The bland official announcement took pains to stress that the
coalition was not aimed at any other party and expressed
support for impartial government based on the rule of law.
The CDQ spokesman, Hassan al-Saidi, also assured reporters
that "repercussions" arising from incidents occurring inside
or outside the province would not disrupt the coalition.

Mum on Disqualifications
--------------


2. (C) The 12 incoming PC members, including four women, who
attended the March 29 announcement ceremony declined to
answer questions. The CDQ spokesman, Hassan al-Saidi,
declined to confirm or deny whether any elected PC members
would be disqualified because they had forged academic
credentials to meet the criteria of PC candidacy. An
Independent High Electoral Commission official told us on
March 25 that IHEC had detected cases of forged credentials
and an unspecified number of elected PC members could be
disqualified. A well-connected local journalist said shortly
thereafter that two to five elected PC members had forged
credentials, but this source speculated that the cases, which
he said involved Da'wa figures, would be swept under the rug.
Subsequent PRT contacts with IHEC confirmed that no
candidates had been disqualified. (Comment: In any case,
disqualifications would not change the balance of power, as
the next highest vote-getter from the same party would
replace the disqualified candidate. End Comment.)

Sadrists Focus on Detainees
--------------


3. (C) The announcement of the formation of a coalition also
did not specify which parties or people would fill the
positions of Governor, Deputy Governor, and PC Chair. The
Nasiriyah rumor mill has swung back and forth on this issue
with no clear verdict. According to some well-connected
sources, the Sadrists now may take one of the three key
positions in the provincial government, most likely PC Chair.
However, several contacts said that the Sadrists are mostly
focused on the release of Sadrist-affiliated detainees. A
March 20 demonstration marking the anniversary of the U.S.
invasion of Iraq called for the release of detained Sadrists,
positioning the Sadrists to claim credit for any release, of
Sadrists and non-Sadrists alike. Several local residents
told us that there is little local grassroots pressure to
release detainees, but that many Iraqis do view many
detentions as arbitrary. In any case, Da'wa and the National
Reform Trend together hold a majority of seats, which limits
the Sadrists' leverage.
BUTENIS