MFA READOUT OF PM MALIKI'S VISITS TO TEHRAN AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000091 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD IZ IR SUBJECT: MFA READOUT OF PM MALIKI'S VISITS TO TEHRAN AND ANKARA; FUTURE OF NEIGHBORS PROCESS AND AMBASSADORIAL APPOINTMENTS REF: 08 BAGHDAD 3148 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Prime Minister Maliki was warmly received during his January 3-5 visit to Tehran, in sharp contrast to his last trip in June, which was soured by belligerent Iranian opposition to the SOFA negotiations. According to a senior MFA official who accompanied Maliki, the visit focused on economic and trade issues, with Iran agreeing to provide $1 billion in loans and economic assistance. The Prime Minister met all major Iranian political figures except for former President Rafsanjani and reportedly listened without comment when his hosts proposed that Iran, Iraq and the GCC countries establish a new regional security mechanism. Maliki's December 24 visit to Ankara was also focused on encouraging bilateral economic cooperation, but marred by President Gul's defense of Special Envoy Ozcelik, whose recent, SOFA-related engagement with Iraqi officials led the GOI to accuse him of interfering in Iraq's internal affairs. On regional cooperation more broadly, the official expressed dissatisfaction with last fall's Neighbors Process working group meetings and emphasized that U.S. involvement is critical for the Neighbors Process or any other regional initiative (such as that recently floated by GOI Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh) to succeed. The official also told us that four of the six new Iraqi Ambassadors announced in late September had obtained agrement; none had yet taken up their duties. End Summary. -------------- --- Iranians Propose New Regional Security Mechanism -------------- --- ¶2. (C) In a January 8 meeting with Deputy Political Counselor, MFA Director for Neighboring Countries Ambassador Taha al-Abassi provided a frank readout of Prime Minister Maliki's January 3-5 visit to Iran. He said the Iranians laid out the red carpet for Maliki, who met with Supreme Leader Khamenei and all other key figures (with the exception of former President Rafsanjani). Maliki initially planned to stay in Tehran for only a day, but was persuaded to stay three. The tone of the visit -- al-Abassi noted several times -- was distinctly, and surprisingly, more positive than was the case during Maliki's last visit six months ago, when the Iranians "threatened us" on negotiations over the U.S.-Iraq bilateral security agreement. By contrast, this time the tone was warm and the Iranians even congratulated Maliki for concluding the agreement, which, they said, establishes a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. ¶3. (C) The most notable issue raised by the Iranians was a proposed new regional cooperation mechanism to include Iran, Iraq and the GCC countries. The proposal, al-Abassi said, is clearly an attempt to exclude the U.S., Turkey and others and poses a challenge the GCC 3 configuration, something he characterized as "a devilish idea." Al-Abassi reported that Maliki listened to the Iranian proposal but offered no response. ¶4. (C) While welcoming the improved tone, Al-Abassi made clear that caution is required: "I think the Iranians are changing but we have to be very careful. The Iranians are very clever at maneuvering outcomes. They are trying to buy time for their nuclear program and (floating) this proposal, as well as what's happening in Gaza and Lebanon, are to keep everyone focused on other things. The Iranians are very cunning." ¶5. (C) Looking ahead, al-Abassi said the concrete outcome Q5. (C) Looking ahead, al-Abassi said the concrete outcome of Maliki's Tehran visit will be the formation of a ministerial committee to follow-up on the recommendations and proposals that were discussed. The Committee will be headed on the Iraqi side by the Minister of Trade, and on the Iranian side by Foreign Minister Motakki. It will hold its first meeting in Baghdad in two months. Issues to tackle will include import-export balances ("right now we are exporting nothing to them"),electricity, pipelines, improvement of railway links, air transport (primarily for religious pilgrims),and housing projects to be built by Iranian companies. The Iranians have offered $1 billion in loans to finance projects in all sectors. Al-Abassi said the Iraqi delegation raised a number of water issues, pointing to damage done to farmland in Diyala and marshes in Amarra by Iranian diversion of rivers for irrigation. -------------- -- Ankara Visit Positive, But Tension Over Ozcelik -------------- -- BAGHDAD 00000091 002 OF 003 ¶6. (C) Al-Abassi also provided a few observations on PM Maliki's December 24 visit to Ankara, which, he said, also went well. The Turks were pleased with Maliki's statement calling the PKK terrorists that must be fought and defeated. They also congratulated Maliki on concluding the U.S.-Iraq security agreement which showed, as evidenced by its approval in parliament, that Iraqis are united. Much of the discussions focused on economic and energy issues, along with Iraqi requests that Turkey increase water allocations. On the latter, Al-Abassi said the Turks promised to increase the water quota but complained that "they never follow through." ¶7. (C) According to al-Abassi, one item of note was Turkish President Gul's rebuttal of the admonishment the GOI had delivered to Special Envoy Ozcelik during his SOFA-related travel to Iraq last November. Abassi said the GOI had told Ozcelik that he had overstepped his mandate and was interfering in internal Iraqi affairs "by talking with political parties that are against the government." Gul made clear the GOT position that Ozcelik is "not interfering, but only doing his job." Maliki reportedly listened to Gul's points but did not respond. Stepping back from the specifics of the Tehran and Ankara trips, al-Abassi assessed that those visits -- along with planned trips to the Gulf in the coming weeks, are all part of a Maliki strategy to burnish his leadership credentials among Iraq's political class and the Iraqi population at large. -------------- The Future of the Neighbors Process -------------- ¶8. (C) As MFA Director for Neighboring Countries, Al-Abassi has been intimately involved with the Neighbors Process. In that context, he gave a frank assessment of the recent three Neighbors working group meetings on energy, refugees and border security held in Istanbul, Amman and Damascus in October/November. They were, he said, "not satisfactory, especially the refugees group." In al-Abassi's view, the Neighbors Process has evolved from a mechanism intended to address Iraqi issues and problems to one that benefits the neighboring countries more than Iraq. As examples, he characterized the energy working group as a means for the Turks to drum up business for their own companies and ensure that Turkey is the main conduit for Iraqi oil and gas. Similarly, he argued that the refugee working group has become a vehicle for Jordan and Syria to extract aid from the international community, with not all of these funds being properly channeled to Iraqi refugees. ¶9. (C) Deputy PolCouns asked al-Abassi how the GOI envisioned the future of the Neighbors Process, given the criticisms he outlined. Al-Abassi responded that the GOI "is reviewing the work of these groups and would forward ideas to the next Ministerial." On the timing of a next Ministerial (notionally planned for October/November 2008 but since postponed),al-Abassi made clear it depended on the presence of the new U.S. Secretary of State: "we are waiting for you...we need the U.S. to be present in this mechanism in order to be a control factor." ¶10. (C) Deputy PolCouns also queried al-Abassi on the December 9 presentation of GOI Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh at the U.S. Institute for Peace regarding formation of a new regional economic partnership. Asked whether it was done in consultation with the MFA, Al-Abassi characterized al-Dabbagh's proposal as a "personal initiative" which has been mistakenly seen as an official GOI proposal. Without Qbeen mistakenly seen as an official GOI proposal. Without commenting directly on the content of the proposal, al-Abassi assessed that it will be "a challenge to convince the Syrians and Iranians that other countries like Israel should be included." (Note: We are not aware whether al-Dabbagh in his December 9 presentation made reference to Israel but al-Abassi mentioned it unprompted. End Note.) -------------- Status of Iraqi Ambassadorial Appointments -------------- ¶11. (C) Al-Abassi provided some updated information on the status of six Iraqi Ambassadorial appointments announced at the end of September (reftel). According to his information, four of the six (to Syria, Qatar, Turkey and Lebanon) have received agrement, while two (to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain) remain pending. None have taken up their duties, he said, but those who have obtained agrement are expected to do so soon. He noted that Iraqi political blocs continue to compete for the ambassadorships to the UAE and Kuwait, and selection of an Ambassador to Egypt would depend on Egypt's reopening an embassy in Baghdad. He also noted that the MFA BAGHDAD 00000091 003 OF 003 is considering as a stop-gap measure combining the positions of Iraqi Ambassador to the Arab League with that of Iraqi Ambassador to Egypt. CROCKER