PRT NINEWA: AL-HADBA ALLIANCE ON SHEIKHY GROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000622 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2024 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PTER IZ SUBJECT: PRT NINEWA: AL-HADBA ALLIANCE ON SHEIKHY GROUND Classified By: Ninewa PRT Leader Alex Laskaris for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message. ¶1. (C) Summary. Riding high in the wake of the Sunni Arabs' Al-Hadba list dominance in the provincial elections, Iraqi Justice and Reform Movement Party Founder Sheikh Abdullah Hemdi Ajil al-Yawar is now distancing himself from Al-Hadba leader Athiel al-Najaifi and presenting himself as the real power broker in Ninewa. Sheikh Abdullah also forcefully advocated for the immediate departure of Pesh merga and Assayesh from Ninewa, asserting that this was the first step to resolve growing Arab-Kurdish tensions. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On March 5, Senior Advisor for Northern Iraq (S/A) Tom Krajeski and Multi-National Division-North Commander (MND-N) Major General Robert Caslen met with Sheikh Abdullah, the acting paramount Sheikh of the Shammari Confederation in Northern Iraq. The meeting took place at the Sheikh's estate in the sub-district of Rabia. -------------- Al-HADBA vs. the SHEIKH -------------- ¶3. (C) Sheikh Abdullah began the luncheon by attributing Al-Hadba's success in the provincial elections to himself. He cited his good relationship with the people and alleged that they perceive him as a patriot and not a politician. He distanced himself from Al-Hadba's Athiel al-Najaifi by discerning there is a difference between the Al-Hadba list and the Al-Hadba movement. Sheikh Abdullah ordered two of his staff to set up a flat screen television to show a DVD of a pre-election gathering of over 1,000 sheikhs on his estate. He then fast-forwarded through al-Najaifi's speech and dismissively pointed out Al-Hadba's candidates who lost the elections. He used the remote control to slow the tape to proudly indicate his winning candidates. According to Sheikh Abdullah, ten of the winning candidates on the Al-Hadba list are personally loyal to him. He also claimed that he controls an addition six Provincial Council (PC) seats claiming the three Islamic Party of Iraq (IIP) representatives and the winners of the Christian, Shebak and Yezidi minority seats. He inferred that Athiel al-Najaifi's support came from two seats. Sheikh Abdullah said that the people of Ninewa embraced Al-Hadba's pledge to bring justice and security to the province, attributing his candidates with that primary focus. ¶4. (C) The Sheikh gave a civil, if unenthusiastic, endorsement of Al-Hadba party leader Athiel al-Najaifi to serve as the next Provincial Governor. In exchange for supporting al-Najaifi's governorship, Sheikh Abdullah believes he has enough clout to choose the PC Chairman and perhaps the Vice Governor. He down-played the possibility of al-Hadba Sunni Arab aligned Kurd Dildar Zebari serving in either position since it would be perceived as an insult to the Barzani clan. The Sheikh claimed that many people seek his support for these positions, however, he is playing his cards close to his robe and will not reveal whom he will back. -------------- NINEWA'S CHALLENGES -------------- ¶5. (C) Sheikh Abdullah said that Ninewa's most imminent challenge is the resolution of the simmering Arab-Kurd tensions, which he described as a "festering wound." The quickest resolution to the tension, according to Sheikh Abdullah, is the immediate expulsion of the Pesh merga from all territories south of the March 2003 Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) line, claiming that their presence QAdministrative Law (TAL) line, claiming that their presence is unconstitutional. He suggested that security could be preserved by replacing the Pesh merga with the Iraqi Army (IA) and national police (ISF),who are not from Ninewa and therefore are not caught up in ethno-sectarian rivalries. He added that the people need to recognize the role of the Iraqi Army and national police, working with the properly-elected PC, to provide security and protect their rights. (Note. Sheikh Abdullah said he is not anti-Kurd, describing how he helped shelter Kurds during Saddam's reign. End Note) ¶6. (C) Equally, if not more, important, according to Sheikh Abdullah, is the immediate removal of all Assayesh (Kurdish secret police) from Ninewa. Sheikh Abdullah alleged that the Assayesh behave in much the same way as Saddam's intelligence service did prior to 2003. Assayesh's behavior was not only intimidating the people of Ninewa but also driving otherwise neutral Sunni Arabs into the hands of al-Qaeda, according to Sheikh Abdullah. BAGHDAD 00000622 002 OF 002 -------------- THE ROAD AHEAD -------------- ¶7. (C) Sheikh Abdullah believes that Ninewa's future success, and all the provinces in Iraq, is to develop a POSITIVE working relationship with the central government in Baghdad and to put an Iraqi identity above any ethno-sectarian divisions. He noted how religious and ethnic parties didn't fare so well in the elections and what is needed going forward is a multi-cultural Iraqi Party. The time for war and division is over; the GoI must take the lead and promote social and economic development through unity, according to Sheikh Abdullah. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) At this most recent meeting, Sheikh Abdullah's repeated stance on the need for the Pesh merga to leave Ninewa grew more forceful and urgent. Likewise, whereas he had initially expressed some ambivalence on the proclivity of the central government to work with the new provincial government, he now offers his full support to the GoI, IA and ISF. Sheikh Abdullah has maneuvered himself into a position of considerable influence within the new provincial government while he continues to present himself as a friend of Coalition Forces (CF). Abdullah's views notwithstanding, al-Najaifi was the leading vote-getter in the January 31 elections, receiving 263,000 votes. In the words, over half of al-Hadba voters voted for Athiel personally, not the list. By way of comparison, that was 14 times more than the second place finisher, a candidate on the Kurdish list. The internal dynamics with Al-Hadba will be interesting to follow; more importantly, the Abdullah wing of the list might temper the paleo-Ba'athist anti-CF views of others within the gathering. BUTENIS