SADR CITY POST-ELECTION: HIGH EXPECTATIONS AMID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000475 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2014 TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL SUBJECT: SADR CITY POST-ELECTION: HIGH EXPECTATIONS AMID STRONG SUPPORT FOR MALIKI; RESIDENTS (MOSTLY) WANT U.S. TROOPS TO GO HOME Classified By: Deputy Polcouns John G. Fox, reasons 1.4 b/d. ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a series of informal conversations with Poloff, a diverse group of Sadr City residents -- ranging from day laborers and students to shopkeepers -- voiced overall confidence in the fairness and credibility of the January 31, 2009, Provincial Council (PC) elections, in which candidates associated with PM Maliki's Da'wa party outperformed others by a sizable margin in Baghdad (winning 28 of 57 seats). Sadr City's District Advisory Council (DAC) Chairman, Hassan Shama, however, complained about Da'wa's alleged manipulation of election resources; he openly questioned the results. Shama said that Sadr residents had supported Maliki due to his tough stand against Moqtada Sadr's JAM -- but, he added, Maliki was ironically now on the verge of forming a key partnership in the capital with Sadrist leaders. Residents said they welcomed a U.S. troop drawdown in Sadr City, with many signaling weariness over U.S. MRAPs and humvees in congested city streets, but several cautioned against too rapid a reduction. One resident warned that sectarian "embers" still burned in the capital city. END SUMMARY. POST-ELECTION: HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR MALIKI -------------- ¶2. (U) A sample of about two dozen Sadr City residents the week of February 16 showed widespread confidence in the provincial elections results, as they gathered and voiced opinions adjacent to the Sadr City DAC building. Most of them (shopkeepers, students, unemployed youth, ex-military) told Poloff of their open support for PM Maliki and his slate of candidates. One teacher said that, while some services in the city had improved, more needed to be done. The PC, he added, would be "tested" this year following the election. Since specific candidates had been on the ballot, it would be easier to hold individual representatives (not just parties) accountable. One elderly man said Maliki had won support because "he treated all Iraqis the same, keeping the peace between Shia and Sunni." ¶3. (C) Hassan Shama, current DAC chairman and losing candidate in the PC election, questioned Da'wa's influence in the election outcome, stating "they controlled the process, the budget and the staff." He predicted the new marriage of convenience between Maliki and Sadrists "would be bad for Sadr City" and added, wryly, that residents had voted for Maliki because of his military campaign against Shia militias -- but now "the same Maliki hero embraces the Sadrists!" When pressed, the chairman did think services for Sadr City might temporarily improve, but only in order to win votes and sustain Da'wa momentum in the run-up to parliamentary elections at the end of the year. Shama said his principal concern remained any side deals Da'wa might make with Sadrists and the reemergence of Shia militias as U.S. forces drawdown. (Note: Shama has echoed this concern often, a claim rebutted by the IA Brigade commander. Most residents have not flagged to Poloff similar concerns about a quick reemergence of JAM forces; that said, U.S. troops only patrol a quarter of the city and firsthand coalition insights into Qa quarter of the city and firsthand coalition insights into the farthest reaches of the vast Baghdad slum area remain limited. End Note.) ¶4. (U) One DAC member said that Sadr residents seemed to understand this election much better than the last PC election, recognizing individual names and candidates. He added, however, that he was not optimistic that the new council would be more effective, stressing "we will watch them closely." The DAC member believed past abuses and corruption in the provincial body under ISCI leadership would continue under any new Da'wa/Sadrist coalition. ART, AND ARTISTS, IN BAGHDAD: WHO CARES? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) One prominent Baghdad artist, hired by a local contractor who is building a park in Sadr City with coalition funds (CERP),deplored the provincial government's lack of support for and interest in the entire artist community. He BAGHDAD 00000475 002 OF 002 said current officials had neglected the capital's once flourishing artistic scene. Five of the "last, best, most prominent" artists had recently left Baghdad, with only approximately ten leading ones remaining. The artist doubted the new provincial government would invest in artistic initiatives, which had been a visible priority of Saddam's government. He said that while security in the capital had improved, most artists in his circle of friends wanted to see how conditions would endure once American forces departed -- concluding art was easier to make after war, not during war. U.S. DRAWDOWN: SOON, AND STEADY -------------- ¶6. (U) The collection of Sadr residents echoed variations on a common theme regarding the American military presence: it was time for U.S. troops to leave the once-volatile city in line with the Security Agreement. Several voiced pride that the now famous shoe-thrower (during ex-President Bush's December 2008 visit) was a native son; one teen said the shoes spoke "for all us." An older man standing nearby told Poloff that recent security gains were real, but fragile, noting "your troops need to leave, but not before you have made our army stronger." He concluded by warning that the sectarian "embers" in Baghdad were still present. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Residents of Sadr City have benefited from Maliki's self-promoted "strong, but fair" leadership mantle and the relative calm in the city following summer 2008's military campaign against JAM. Da'wa clearly has early momentum in advance of follow-on parliamentary elections. Sadr residents appear inclined to give Maliki the benefit of the doubt, emphasizing his success with security (alongside U.S. efforts) over still-lagging progress in infrastructure. Whether a new PC delivers for Sadr City will be the benchmark to watch across 2009. The likely integration of Sadrist leaders into Maliki's coalition might reflect the beginning of an enduring union of Shia leaders who have publicly highlighted their strong nationalist message and program. ¶8. (C) On the security front, Sadr City remains a key test case of the SA as we begin to drawdown U.S. forces in Iraq. The sprawling neighborhood, home to 40 percent of the capital's population, has benefited from security improvements since the influx of U.S. and IA units in summer ¶2008. ISF (both leaders and grunts) and most local officials, alongside contractors -- all groups most closely tied to the U.S. military and its generous CERP project budgets -- tend to emphasize the need for American troops to stay, whereas a majority of average residents more convincingly argue that it is time for a steady U.S. troop withdrawal to begin. BUTENIS