This is a Baghdad PRT reporting cable

UNCLAS BAGHDAD 000462 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL ASEC IZ SUBJECT: This is a Baghdad PRT reporting cable ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Baghdad Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) forecasts the emergence in the next Provincial Council (PC) of a strong "Nationalist" coalition, which includes PM Maliki's Da'wa party, and a weaker, though significant, "Regionalist" coalition, which includes the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) party. Previously underrepresented Sadrists and Sunnis likely also will find themselves with more places at the table. END SUMMARY. -------------- A New Look for the Baghdad Provincial Council -------------- ¶2. (SBU) ISCI dominated the last PC, while the Da'wa presence was much smaller. Preliminary analysis indicates a reversal of the PC's political landscape. Given Da'wa's large plurality and control of federal government offices in Baghdad, the next PC Chairman and Governor likely will be prominent Da'wa members. (Note: This assessment is driven purely by national party ideology or past performance and ignores potential provincial negotiations. End note.) ¶3. (SBU) Sadrists and Sunnis were represented on the previous PC in token only (less than one percent of the 2005-elected PC). These nationalist communities will have significant blocs in the new PC, with the Sadrists having won nine percent and the two main Sunni blocs, Tawafuq and Mutlak's Huwar, at nine percent and seven percent, respectively. (The Kurdistani Alliance and Fadhila, represented in the 2005-elected PC at four percent and 12 percent, respectively, appear to have fallen below the minimum level in the 2009 PC.) -------------- An Opportunity for Change and New Engagement -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Comment: Maliki's inner circle has leaked his willingness to appoint qualified, non-Da'wa technocrats to high administrative posts. If Maliki uses his victory to raise the level of competence of local government, the PRT can expect increased requests for governance training and mentoring for the new local officials. Baghdad PRT and ePRTs also now have an opening to reach different communities through their elected leaders (e.g. Sadr City, Salman Pak, Mahmoudiya, Tarmiya). Further, an alliance between the dominant Da'wa and the previously ostracized Sadrists could remove an obstacle to improving GOI services in Sadr City and provide an opportunity to encourage Provincial investment (and focus QRF and CERP funding) on dissident neighborhoods. -------------- Forecasted Coalition Compositions -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Baghdad PC is comprised of 57 total seats. Regionalists: --ISCI (3 seats) --Tawafuq (7 seats) --Allawi (5 seats) Nationalists: --Dawa (28 seats) --Sadrist (6 seats) --Mutlak (7 seats) BUTENIS