PRT SALAH AD DIN: PARTY AND INDIVIDUAL RIVALRIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000454 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: PRT SALAH AD DIN: PARTY AND INDIVIDUAL RIVALRIES IMPEDE COALITION BUILDING REF: A. A) BAGHDAD 295 ¶B. B) BAGHDAD 213 ¶C. C) BAGHDAD 142 ¶D. D) BAGHDAD 80 ¶E. E) 08 BAGHDAD 3893 Classified By: PRT Salah Ad Din Leader Rick Bell for reasons 1.4 (a) an d (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Even before confirmation of which individuals have won seats, jockeying has begun in Salah Ad Din (SAD) for the five provincial offices that the new Provincial Council (PC) will elect. At the party level, the Tawafuq list (which includes the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP)) received the greatest number votes, but is finding it difficult to find coalition partners. At the candidate level, personal rivalries are impeding coalition-building. By all accounts, in most places the PC elections were well organized and security was good. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) SAD, Saddam's home province, had the highest turnout in Iraq in the January provincial elections -- 61.5 percent (ref A). This is more than double the 28 percent turnout in 2005's provincial elections, which many of the majority Sunni Arabs in the province boycotted. This time, there was a broad consensus that boycotting the elections would be counterproductive; the people were eager to vote. The SAD Governorate Elections Officer (GEO),Dr. Hatim Abdulhamid (protect throughout) was clearly quite pleased with the conduct of the elections in SaD and proud that SaD had the highest voter turnout and no serious allegations of electoral improprieties or security incidents: "We will do even better next time!" he exclaimed. -------------- PROJECTED RESULTS -------------- ¶3. (C) Pending confirmation from IHEC, Tawafuq/IIP is expected to win five of 28 seats, the Iraqi National List (INL, led by Ayad Allawi) five seats, the Iraqi National Project Gathering (INPG, led by Saleh Al Mutlaq) three seats, and the Iraqi National Project Front--Jumo'o (INPF, led by SAD Deputy Governor Abdullah Hussein Jebara) three seats. Several other parties/lists are expected to win two seats each: the Intellectuals and Scholars Group, Iraqi Turcoman Front, Salad Ad Din National List, Fraternity and Peaceful Coexistence (FPC, Kurdish list),the Liberation and Construction Front, and the State of Law Coalition (led by Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki). ¶4. (C) The INL included current Governor Hamad Hamood Shekti 
and his Assistant for Security Affairs Ahmed Abdullah ("Abu Mazen"). Abu Mazen was reportedly the highest vote-getter in SaD. Deputy Governor Abdullah was reportedly the second-highest individual vote-getter. Almost all votes for FPC and the Iraqi Turcoman Front came from Tuz district, by far the most ethnically mixed in the province (ref B). It is not clear from these results how many female candidates won seats outright; the legally-mandated quota of 25 percent equals seven seats. -------------- JOCKEYING FOR OFFICES -------------- ¶5. (C) Even before IHEC confirmed which candidates within the lists won seats, jockeying had already begun for the five offices that the new PC will elect: Governor, two Deputy Governors, PC Chair, and Deputy PC Chair. While Tawafuq/IIP tied with INL to win the most seats, the PRT is hearing that other parties are unwilling to form a coalition with it--an effect of long-held grievances against IIP. Dr. Hatim, the GEO, corroborated this, saying that the major players are so far unwilling to form a coalition with Tawafuq/IIP (Dr. Hatim openly acknowledges his own IIP affiliation). He said that Governor Hamad and Abu Mazen are working to form a coalition with the smaller parties that would allow them to avoid Qwith the smaller parties that would allow them to avoid giving IIP any positions. He added that "someone" is spreading a rumor that Tawafuq's strong showing was the result of (as yet unsubstantiated) ballot-box stuffing. ¶6. (C) We also hear that personal animosity between the two highest vote-getters, Abu Mazen and Abdullah (both of whom covet the Governorship),is preventing their parties from forming a coalition. (NOTE: Dr. Hatim said that Abu Mazen lacks a college degree, which is a legal requirement for the Governorship. END NOTE). -------------- ONGOING CONTROVERSY OVER ABDULLAH -------------- BAGHDAD 00000454 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) Abu Mazen bluntly told the PRT before the campaign that he would have Abdullah disqualified on deba'athification grounds (refs D-E),and he almost succeeded. Abdullah tells us a renewed effort is being made to have him disqualified now. Some of the smaller parties have told the PRT that they do not want Abdullah or Governor Hamad to hold any leadership positions. Abdullah claims that if he does not get the Governorship, he will be content with having a regular PC seat. -------------- OBSERVATIONS ON THE ELECTIONS -------------- ¶8. (C) By all accounts, in most places the election was well organized and security was good. The biggest problem noted by observers (both the PRT's own and Iraqis) were in some places, significant numbers of would-be voters found that their names were not on the voter roll associated with their PDS agent. Also, some heads of household, especially in rural areas, were frustrated at not being allowed to vote on behalf of women in their households. In some cases, once they understood that voting rights are personal and non-transferable according to Iraqi law, they returned home and brought their female relatives to vote; in probably many more cases, those potential votes were not cast. ¶9. (C) The GEO, Dr. Hatim Abdulhamid, commented that voter education needs to start much earlier before the next round of elections, to avoid confusion over issues such as the impermissibility of voting for absent/female relatives. He also thought that the ration card/passive voter registration system needed an overhaul at the national level. He predicted we would see the same problems in the next round of local elections, though enhanced voter education could limit this problem. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) The PRT expects that as soon as the allocation of PC seats is confirmed, hard-nosed bargaining will begin in earnest. We will continue to monitor and report on developments. So far, no interlocutor has objected to the PRT's questions, but several have asked to defer discussion until the last week of February. END COMMENT. BUTENIS