ASHURA CROWDS, SADRIST STATEMENT ON GAZA SPARK

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000044 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2014 TAGS: ASEC PREL PGOV PTER IZ SUBJECT: ASHURA CROWDS, SADRIST STATEMENT ON GAZA SPARK SECURITY CONCERNS IN NAJAF Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Fox for reasons 1.4 (a) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Muqtada al Sadr's January 7 declaration to his followers to "carry out revenge operations" against Israel's "great accomplice" for Israel's military assault on Gaza caused concern to PRT local staff and contacts due to the enhanced crowds and religious fervor in the province during the Shi'a holy day of Ashura. Millions of religious pilgrims--mostly Iraqi but also Iranian and Lebanese--bound for neighboring Karbala swelled the province's roads and population over the last week. Though Sadr has issued several similar declarations over the past six months, PRT locally engaged staff (LES) and contacts are concerned about this statement due to increased Sadrist-supporters in the province and the curveball of anti-Israeli emotions and rhetoric affecting an already tense situation. The PRT has received no information concerning possible attacks on the PRT, PRT staff, or other USG locations in Najaf. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Ashura, the tenth day of the Muslim month of Muharram, marks the death of Imam Hussein in the battle of Karbala. Though most of the Ashura rituals focus on Karbala and the Shrines of Imam Hussein and Abbas there, many pilgrims visit the Shrine of Imam Ali in Najaf prior to, during and after the actual Ashura commemorations in Karbala, putting Iraqi Security Forces in Najaf on high alert. With swelled Sadrist-supporter ranks in the city and province, PRT LES and local contacts, including Provincial Council (PC) members and the Najaf Governor's office, have warned the PRT to maintain a low profile and a heightened sense of security. ¶3. (C) PC Member Sheikh Fayed al-Shimmeri urged the PRT to remain vigilant throughout this period because large crowds stirred with religious intensity and upset about the U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement could commit violent acts or spark Special Groups attacks. Governor Assad Abu Gelal Al Taie asked the PRT not to move unnecessarily over the next week in order not to enrage any demonstrations or crowds in the city's streets. Though he did not expect any attacks, he said the situation warranted careful attention, and limited American military movements in the province. ¶4. (C) COMMENT: Despite the numerous Sadr statements directed against the U.S. in the past six months, the PRT LES have never before reacted with fear and concern for imminent attack. Several LES stayed home but called the PRT repeatedly to warn and check up on their American colleagues. The LES Political Assistant, unable to call and get through, risked travel through the city to the PRT to make sure the message of caution made its way to the team, then promptly returned home. The Ashura crowds, stirred up by the message to sacrifice and fight for Imam Hussein, and the uncertainty of the emotional reaction to Gaza, has PRT contacts, staff and supporters the most scared and concerned since the opening of the PRT in Najaf province in May 2008. END COMMENT. CROCKER