MP QASIM DAOUD ON PRO-/ANTI-MALIKI ALLIANCES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000421 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2029 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ SUBJECT: MP QASIM DAOUD ON PRO-/ANTI-MALIKI ALLIANCES IN PARLIAMENT Classified By: Acting Political Counselor John Fox for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. Parliamentarian Qasim Daoud, leader of the Solidarity Party, told Poloffs on February 16 that the opposition to, and support for, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in parliament is becoming more cohesive. Daoud expressed optimism over a possible ISCI, IIP, Kurdish, Solidarity, and Iraqiyya alliance in opposition to Maliki, a sentiment that other contacts have also expressed recently. Daoud predicted an "escalation" in parliament next week but did not predict those opposing Maliki would pursue a vote of no-confidence. End summary. -------------- - Alliances Becoming Clear -- Two Sides Emerging -------------- - ¶2. (C) Poloffs on February 16 met with Qasim Daoud, leader of the Solidarity Party, who explained that two distinct political alliances are forming based on their position toward Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. Daoud said he is in discussion with Ibrahim al-Jafari's Reform Trend and Ayad Allawi's Iraqiyya, to convince these former prime ministers to cooperate with the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI), the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP),the Kurdish Alliance, and his own Solidarity Party to oppose Maliki. Daoud claimed that discussions with Allawi are going well. Daoud claimed that the Fadhila Party would also join this alliance and that Jafari recently rejected Maliki's overture to form coalitions together in provincial councils. (Note. The information on Allawi has been corroborated by other contacts, but better placed sources have given us contradictory information on Fadhila and the Reform Trend. Fadhila member Hassan al-Shimmari told Poloff on February 17 that his party has not yet chosen sides. Jafari's deputy, Falih al-Fayyad, told Poloffs that the Reform Trend and Maliki have agreed to cooperate on provincial councils. End note.) ¶3. (C) On the other side, those more inclined to support Maliki and his Da'wa party include the Sadrists and "nationalist" Sunni Arabs such as Salih al-Mutlaq's Iraqi National Dialogue Front, said Daoud. He claimed that Maliki's base in parliament is dwindling because he is trying to isolate his Shia rivals. Daoud said that because of a shared root ideology, the Sadrists are a more natural ally for Da'wa than ISCI. When asked whether there are some in ISCI who might side with Maliki, Daoud said Humam Hammoudi and Shaykh Muhammad Taqi al-Mawla probably would support Maliki but most others in ISCI -- Abd al-Aziz and Ammar al-Hakim, Vice President Adil Abd al-Mahdi, Badr Organization leader Hadi al-Amiri, Jalal al-Din al-Saghir, and Ridha Jawad Taqi -- are inclined to oppose him. -------------- Expect "Escalation" in Parliament Next Week -------------- ¶4. (C) Daoud predicted "things (in parliament) will escalate next week" but he did not say whether the "opposition" planned to pursue a vote of no-confidence. Daoud relayed to Poloffs that he has been spreading the message that Maliki has misused government resources to his political benefit and the longer he remains in power, the stronger he becomes. In previous meetings, Daoud has wryly criticized the U.S. Embassy for propping-up Maliki by issuing statements in his favor at moments when the opposition was ready to act. ¶5. (C) Daoud said that opposition of the Maliki government is linked to the selection of a new parliament speaker. He claimed that he and his ISCI allies remain in favor of Ayad Qclaimed that he and his ISCI allies remain in favor of Ayad al-Sammaraie for speaker but that the next best candidate is Sunni independent Arab/Turkoman Hachim al-Hassani. The opposition wanted a strong speaker like Sammaraie to provide "checks and balances" against the Maliki government. Daoud admitted that his call to dissolve Parliament's Presidency (the Speaker and both deputy Speakers) should the impasse continue had little support among MPs. Nonetheless, Daoud criticized acting Speaker al-Attiyah for being too close to Maliki. While parliament is scheduled to convene on Wednesday (February 18),Daoud said that the Speakership impasse would not be settled this week due to Shia religious observances, but predicted it would be resolved the following week. -------------- Lessons of the Elections -------------- ¶6. (C) On ISCI's poor performance in the provincial elections, Daoud said ISCI has learned that promoting a nine-province southern region hurt them and predicted it BAGHDAD 00000421 002 OF 002 would no longer raise that as an issue. The Kurds, said Daoud, have learned that ISCI cannot be seen as supporting Kurdish expansionism in the north because it alienates ISCI's Shia constituents. ¶7. (C) Comment: Daoud is one of our most consistently anti-Maliki Shia contacts. He has long advocated for Maliki's removal through parliamentary means. It was interesting to note that even after Maliki's victory in the January 31 provincial elections, Daoud claims he and his colleagues are still working to better oppose Maliki's government. Significantly, other Iraqi contacts have echoed Daoud's optimism regarding the possibility of forming an ISCI, Kurdish, IIP, Iraqiyya, and Solidarity alliance against the Prime Minister. However, given the contradictory information we have received from other contacts, we believe it is less likely that Fadhila and the Reform Trend will join this alliance. End Comment. BUTENIS