DA'WA WHEELING AND DEALING IN KARBALA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000364 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2019 TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINR IZ SUBJECT: DA'WA WHEELING AND DEALING IN KARBALA REF: A. A) BAGHDAD 315 ¶B. B) BAGHDAD 251 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor John Fox for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In an apparent attempt to minimize the influence the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) will have in the new Provincial Council (PC),Da'wa leaders in Karbala are working furiously to form alliances with the second-place Hope of the Two Rivers and the fourth-place Independent Free People's Trend lists. A widespread rumor claims they also are attempting to woo top vote-getter Yousif al-Haboubi. End Summary. Shall We Dance? -------------- ¶2. (C) The Independent High Electoral Commission told the PRT on February 10 that the new, 27-seat Karbala Provincial Council (PC) will include ten members from the State of Law Coalition list, ten from the Hope of the Two Rivers list (Hope),three from the Sadrist Independent Free People's Trend list, three from the ISCI-backed Martyr of the Imam Ali Shrine list, and Yousif Majid al-Haboubi. These figures are unofficial and the final seat allocation could differ slightly. According to former governor and current United Nations Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI) representative Ali Kamonah, senior Da'wa party figures -- led by Governor Aqeel Mahmoud al-Khazali -- are working furiously to form alliances with Hope and the Sadrist list. The Da'wa-funded and led State Law Coalition list fared poorly in the provincial elections on January 31, receiving just 8.5 percent of the vote. ¶3. (C) Kamonah told PRT officers on January 11 that Aqeel and others had met the previous day with Hope candidates -- including brothers Mohammed Hamid and Abbas Hamid al-Musawi, both former Da'wa supporters who split with the party over Aqeel's ouster of former Karbala ISF commander MG Ra'ad Shaker Jawdat al-Hasnawi (ref A) -- to "bury the hatchet" and find common ground to keep ISCI from capitalizing on Da'wa's relative weakness. Despite the fact that the Hope list -- which placed second at the polls with 8.8 percent of the vote -- was financed in part by ISCI and features candidates (including at least one Fadhilah supporter) to whom an alliance with Da'wa would be anathema, Kamonah told PRT officers that Hope had sealed a deal with Da'wa. ¶4. (C) Kamonah further reported, and a knowledgeable contact within the provincial government confirmed, that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki earlier this week had dispatched a delegation of judges and lawyers to Karbala. According to both sources, the delegation's mission was to expedite the closure of criminal cases pending against followers of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The cases steam from the deadly clashes during Shabaniyah in 2007 between Sadr's al-Mahdi Army militia and its rival, the ISCI-backed Badr Corps. Both sources say that Maliki, with Aqeel's encouragement, hoped to convince the Sadr-supported list to join forces with Da'wa in opposing ISCI within the Karbala PC. We have no word yet on whether this overture was successful. The delegation's review of Sadrist cases in concurrence with Da'wa-Sadrist coalition negotiations mirrors efforts carried out in other provinces, as outlined in ref B. Odd Man Out -- or In? -------------- ¶5. (C) Meanwhile, a rumor is sweeping the province that Yousif Majid al-Haboubi -- who, with 13.3 percent of the vote, finished first in the balloting -- has agreed to join forces with Da'wa. That we have heard this rumor from contacts in Ayn al-Tamr (western),Karbala City (central) and al-Hindiyah (eastern) portions of the province testifies to its ubiquity and, perhaps to its plausibility. Karbalans Qits ubiquity and, perhaps to its plausibility. Karbalans understandably are apt to regard most politicians as self-serving opportunists. Al-Haboubi, by contrast, had been widely regarded as the anti-establishment candidate, and his support at the polls interpreted as a repudiation of the religious parties and their failure to deliver on their promises. Though a former Ba'athist official here, he nevertheless was esteemed for being a decent person, one who, moreover, got things done. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) Clearly stung by Da'wa's humiliation at the polls, its leaders are taking no prisoners in their quest to remain politically dominant. Aqeel and some of his confreres do not lack for charm (or money),and we anticipate they will succeed in forming a tactical alliance to repel attempts by BAGHDAD 00000364 002 OF 002 ISCI to increase its toehold here. The open question is how faithful Da'wa's newfound friends will prove to be beyond the short term. ISCI, which came in fourth place with 6.4 percent, also has resources (again, money),and al-Haboubi may yet emerge as a truly independent voice. In the landscape of shifting allegiances and strange bedfellows that is Karbala politics, uncertainty is the only thing for certain. End comment. CROCKER