PRT NINEWA: PERCEPTIONS OF SECURITY IN NINEWA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003355 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KCOR IZ SUBJECT: PRT NINEWA: PERCEPTIONS OF SECURITY IN NINEWA BAGHDAD 00003355 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Acting Ninewa PRT Mark Schapiro for reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (U) This is Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message. ¶2. (C) Summary. The PRT queried a number of contacts throughout Ninewa Province to gauge perceptions of security, safety, and service delivery. These contacts came from a variety of economic, political, ethnic, tribal, and religious backgrounds. A general sense of insecurity pervades many parts of the province, specifically those not under Kurdish control. Most believe the security situation will deteriorate as the national election approaches. Many citizens, among them engineers, tribal leaders, reporters, and PRT local employees, believe the lack of security in the province negatively impacts the delivery of services to the population. Others, including government and political leaders, find this an excuse on the part of officials to mask their inability to govern well. Better security, most agree, will require a more professional police force and more importantly, the willingness of officials to address some of the political issues that have contributed to Ninewa,s woes. End Summary. Bad Now, Getting Worse, Maybe Better Later ¶3. (C) When queried about overall perceptions on security in Ninewa, a range of respondents and PRT contacts, reflecting a range of ethnic and religious populations in diverse Ninewa, offered sometimes concurring and sometimes diverse opinions. A few minor government officials said that in some parts of the city of Mosul the security is very good and most contacts from Kurdish-controlled areas feel very safe in those areas. However, some minority leaders in those areas, while feeling relatively safe for now, say continued Arab/Kurd tensions increase the possibility of terrorist attacks against their communities. Most of those in the ISF-controlled areas, however, described overall security as poor or very poor. Many respondents felt the overall situation had worsened during recent months and they generally did not feel safe, while some respondents, again those from Kurdish-controlled areas, offered the opposite opinion. Most respondents and PRT contacts, however, believe the situation in ISF-controlled areas will continue to deteriorate until the formation of a new government sometime in mid-2010. As to the effect of the election on security, most respondents stated they will feel safer after the election, although several opined that unless "new blood" took office, lack of security in daily life will continue in the province. Security Preventing Services, or a Convenient Excuse? ¶4. (SBU) Many of the respondents to PRT Ninewa's queries saw a lack of security as an impediment to receiving basic services in the province. Some, including a civil servant and a young student, however, viewed the lack of security as a ready-made excuse sometimes used by the provincial and local governments as a reason for their inability to deliver services. They cited corruption, rather than a lack of security, as the main obstacle to government delivery of services. Even in safe areas, they noted, the people still lack many basic services. Until the government changes the way in which it operates, people will continue to receive substandard services. Giving credence to this, local officials with whom the PRT maintains regular contact rarely cite lack of security as a reason for failing to deliver to their constituents. ¶5. (C) Several professionals noted that improving services and providing jobs will lead to improved security: providing jobs will lessen the desire to turn to violence. This corresponds with the opinions of a number of local officials Qcorresponds with the opinions of a number of local officials who express frustration at what is often referred to as terrorism but more closely resembles organized crime: extortion, bribery, and theft. For example, many non-Christians in the province view Christians, as a group, as wealthy. When Christians are kidnapped and held for ransom the press blames "terrorists." However, in most cases, the kidnappers are usually part of a criminal organization targeting a group perceived as wealthy, and therefore more likely to pay large amounts. At the same time, terrorist groups did carry out a series of high-profile attacks in late summer 2009, targeting ethnic minority communities in the disputed areas of Ninewa. So What to Do? ¶6. (SBU) The "man on the street", as well as government, political, and ethnic leaders, have offered a variety of opinions on how to improve security, and therefore services, in Ninewa. Interestingly, a number of these opinions mirror the current political situation. They often cited the current Provincial Council (PC) boycott by the Kurd-led BAGHDAD 00003355 002.2 OF 002 Ninewa Fraternity List (NFL) as a contributing factor to poor security. The NFL won a third of the seats in the 2009 PC elections, geographically representing a third of the province (largely in disputed internal boundary, or DIBs, areas). Since April, they have boycotted PC meetings, resulting in an ineffective and partially-representative PC. This, in turn, has greatly affected the ability of the provincial government to deliver necessary services. ¶7. (C) Several tribal and political leaders, as well as several professionals, mentioned the tensions between the Provincial Government and the leadership of ISF,s Ninewa Operations Command, and lack of coordination between the police and army, as allowing seams for terrorists to exploit. Some also mentioned the lack of professionalism in the police force, an opinion shared by several provincial leaders during recent engagements. The confusion in Ninewa over the appropriate roles of the police and army, and the lack of a clear delineation of responsibilities exacerbates the situation and frequently results in finger-pointing when high-profile attacks occur. To help overcome this, a number of ethnic leaders have suggested U.S. forces need to play a larger role in securing Ninewa. 8.(C) Comment: Our informal and regular security-related queries of PRT contacts reveal that people do not believe the overall security situation in the province has improved in recent months, nor do they believe that it will in the coming months. USG-sponsored polling indicates similar sentiments among the population. This pessimism may add to voter apathy, something about which a number of interlocutors have given warning. They also have great faith that the formation of a new national government will bring an improvement, perhaps by fixing some of the larger issues, such as the DIBs areas that they fault for contributing to an insecure environment. Those who felt that a lack of security provided a convenient excuse for the local government's failure to provide services seem to have hit the mark. The PRT's engagements throughout the province suggest that poor cooperation between local and provincial governments, corruption, and lack of experience impact the delivery of services more than security (or lack thereof). End Comment. FORD