PRT NINEWA: PERCEPTIONS OF SECURITY IN NINEWA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003355

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KCOR IZ
SUBJECT: PRT NINEWA: PERCEPTIONS OF SECURITY IN NINEWA

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Classified By: Acting Ninewa PRT Mark Schapiro for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (U) This is Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT)
message.


2. (C) Summary. The PRT queried a number of contacts
throughout Ninewa Province to gauge perceptions of security,
safety, and service delivery. These contacts came from a
variety of economic, political, ethnic, tribal, and religious
backgrounds. A general sense of insecurity pervades many
parts of the province, specifically those not under Kurdish
control. Most believe the security situation will
deteriorate as the national election approaches. Many
citizens, among them engineers, tribal leaders, reporters,
and PRT local employees, believe the lack of security in the
province negatively impacts the delivery of services to the
population. Others, including government and political
leaders, find this an excuse on the part of officials to mask
their inability to govern well. Better security, most agree,
will require a more professional police force and more
importantly, the willingness of officials to address some of
the political issues that have contributed to Ninewa,s woes.
End Summary.

Bad Now, Getting Worse, Maybe Better Later


3. (C) When queried about overall perceptions on security in
Ninewa, a range of respondents and PRT contacts, reflecting a
range of ethnic and religious populations in diverse Ninewa,
offered sometimes concurring and sometimes diverse opinions.
A few minor government officials said that in some parts of
the city of Mosul the security is very good and most contacts
from Kurdish-controlled areas feel very safe in those areas.
However, some minority leaders in those areas, while feeling
relatively safe for now, say continued Arab/Kurd tensions
increase the possibility of terrorist attacks against their
communities. Most of those in the ISF-controlled areas,
however, described overall security as poor or very poor.
Many respondents felt the overall situation had worsened
during recent months and they generally did not feel safe,
while some respondents, again those from Kurdish-controlled
areas, offered the opposite opinion. Most respondents and
PRT contacts, however, believe the situation in
ISF-controlled areas will continue to deteriorate until the
formation of a new government sometime in mid-2010. As to
the effect of the election on security, most respondents
stated they will feel safer after the election, although
several opined that unless "new blood" took office, lack of
security in daily life will continue in the province.


Security Preventing Services, or a Convenient Excuse?


4. (SBU) Many of the respondents to PRT Ninewa's queries
saw a lack of security as an impediment to receiving basic
services in the province. Some, including a civil servant
and a young student, however, viewed the lack of security as
a ready-made excuse sometimes used by the provincial and
local governments as a reason for their inability to deliver
services. They cited corruption, rather than a lack of
security, as the main obstacle to government delivery of
services. Even in safe areas, they noted, the people still
lack many basic services. Until the government changes the
way in which it operates, people will continue to receive
substandard services. Giving credence to this, local
officials with whom the PRT maintains regular contact rarely
cite lack of security as a reason for failing to deliver to
their constituents.


5. (C) Several professionals noted that improving services
and providing jobs will lead to improved security: providing
jobs will lessen the desire to turn to violence. This
corresponds with the opinions of a number of local officials
Qcorresponds with the opinions of a number of local officials
who express frustration at what is often referred to as
terrorism but more closely resembles organized crime:
extortion, bribery, and theft. For example, many
non-Christians in the province view Christians, as a group,
as wealthy. When Christians are kidnapped and held for
ransom the press blames "terrorists." However, in most cases,
the kidnappers are usually part of a criminal organization
targeting a group perceived as wealthy, and therefore more
likely to pay large amounts. At the same time, terrorist
groups did carry out a series of high-profile attacks in late
summer 2009, targeting ethnic minority communities in the
disputed areas of Ninewa.

So What to Do?


6. (SBU) The "man on the street", as well as government,
political, and ethnic leaders, have offered a variety of
opinions on how to improve security, and therefore services,
in Ninewa. Interestingly, a number of these opinions mirror
the current political situation. They often cited the
current Provincial Council (PC) boycott by the Kurd-led

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Ninewa Fraternity List (NFL) as a contributing factor to poor
security. The NFL won a third of the seats in the 2009 PC
elections, geographically representing a third of the
province (largely in disputed internal boundary, or DIBs,
areas). Since April, they have boycotted PC meetings,
resulting in an ineffective and partially-representative PC.
This, in turn, has greatly affected the ability of the
provincial government to deliver necessary services.


7. (C) Several tribal and political leaders, as well as
several professionals, mentioned the tensions between the
Provincial Government and the leadership of ISF,s Ninewa
Operations Command, and lack of coordination between the
police and army, as allowing seams for terrorists to exploit.
Some also mentioned the lack of professionalism in the
police force, an opinion shared by several provincial leaders
during recent engagements. The confusion in Ninewa over the
appropriate roles of the police and army, and the lack of a
clear delineation of responsibilities exacerbates the
situation and frequently results in finger-pointing when
high-profile attacks occur. To help overcome this, a number
of ethnic leaders have suggested U.S. forces need to play a
larger role in securing Ninewa.

8.(C) Comment: Our informal and regular security-related
queries of PRT contacts reveal that people do not believe the
overall security situation in the province has improved in
recent months, nor do they believe that it will in the
coming months. USG-sponsored polling indicates similar
sentiments among the population. This pessimism may add to
voter apathy, something about which a number of interlocutors
have given warning. They also have great faith that the
formation of a new national government will bring an
improvement, perhaps by fixing some of the larger issues,
such as the DIBs areas that they fault for contributing to an
insecure environment. Those who felt that a lack of security
provided a convenient excuse for the local government's
failure to provide services seem to have hit the mark. The
PRT's engagements throughout the province suggest that poor
cooperation between local and provincial governments,
corruption, and lack of experience impact the delivery of
services more than security (or lack thereof). End Comment.
FORD