IHEC PREPARING FOR MARCH 7 ELECTIONS, BUT SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003290

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2019
TAGS: IZ KDEM PGOV
SUBJECT: IHEC PREPARING FOR MARCH 7 ELECTIONS, BUT SECURITY
CONCERNS GROW

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Gary A. Grappo for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Election Commissioners told poloff December 17 that
the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) is working
toward NATIONAL parliamentary elections on March 7, as
confirmed in the Presidency COUNCIL decree sent December 13,
but a recent rise in attacks on IHEC personnel, including one
homicide, has shaken the fragile institution's morale. UNAMI
SRSG Ad Melkert raised this matter with the Ambassador on
December 20. IHEC Deputy Chairperson Amal al-Bayraktar
predicted that Iraq would likely conduct out-of-country
voting (OCV) in 15 countries, and IHEC awaits responses from
the 23 countries invited to host OCV. IHEC Commissioner
Sa,ad al-Rawi confirmed that candidate registration would be
extended through December 20 to allow more time for political
party participation. At a diplomatic brief on December 16,
UNAMI confirmed its technical support for IHEC, including
assistance with OCV, SECURITY planning and election
observers. End Summary.

IHEC Forging Ahead, But SECURITY Concerns Grow
-------------- -


2. (C) Bayraktur told poloff that, now that there is a law,
the IHEC STAFF is working long days to design and implement
an operational time line that will deliver elections on March

7. Bayraktur then paused and conveyed fresh SECURITY
concerns that have darkened the mood of IHEC personnel. She
told poloff that on December 16 a well-liked IHEC employee,
was shot near his house by a gun with a silencer, and in the
same week the wife and child of another IHEC STAFF member
were kidnapped (Note: Subsequent reports identify the
assassination victim as Mr. Ali Mahmud Alwan, Coordinator for
Central Iraqi Operations, and Muhamad Sabree Mahmud as the
father of the kidnaping victim; both are from Baghdad. End
Note.) Neither Bayraktur nor Rawi had a clear opinion on
whether these events occurred because the individuals worked
at IHEC, or for other reasons. But both emphasized that
personnel have been rattled by these threats at IHEC. In a
separate conversation, IFES Chief of Party Sean Dunne added
that he too has seen how fears about personal safety are
negatively impacting the IHEC staff; he conveyed reports that
IHEC Chairman Faraj al-Haydari seemed especially shaken by
the assassination and kidnapping attempts just days after the
"Bloody Tuesday" bombings of December 8.


3. (C) UNAMI SRSG Ad Melkert mentioned IHEC's developing
concerns about SECURITY to the Ambassador on December 20.
Melkert said that because all IHEC personnel are hired on
short-term contracts, and not as full-time civil servants,
their families are not entitled to death benefits. In the
case of the IHEC employee who was assassinated, Melkert
learned that his wife and four month old child were left with
no compensation from IHEC. The SRSG told the Ambassador that
this situation was causing internal discord at IHEC, and that
some IHEC personnel were threatening to go on strike to
demand that IHEC employees be hired as civil servants -- a
prospect which could slow election preparations as IHEC
awaited action by the parliament. The Ambassador assured
Melkert that the Embassy would watch this situation closely,
and suggested that IHEC seek less cumbersome solutions to
staff concerns, such as offering specific death benefits in
their contracts.

Out of Country Voting
--------------


4. (C) Rawi reported that the nine-person IHEC Board of
Commissioners determined that he (a Sunni) and two other
QCommissioners determined that he (a Sunni) and two other
Commissioners, Judge Kasim al-Abodi (Shia) and Sardar
Abdul-Karim (Kurd),would form a new three-person committee
to head OCV administration. Rawi noted that the committee
had just visited the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on December
16 and learned that none of the 23 countries invited to host
OCV has sent formal responses to the letters sent by MFA in
mid-November. Bayraktar and Rawi emphasized to poloff that
IHEC will need replies on all MOUs before January 10. The
IHEC commissioners estimated that Iraq will likely conduct
OCV in 15 countries, as in 2005. Neither of them was sure
about which countries, except that they expected Denmark and
Malaysia to decline the invitation, and that Syria, Jordan,
Turkey Iran and Lebanon would definitely be included.
Bayraktar commented that Egypt was unlikely to host OCV
because the Government of Egypt "does not want the influence
of democracy there."


5. (C) According to the UNAMI Electoral Assistance Team,

BAGHDAD 00003290 002 OF 002


IHEC determined December 19 that it would conduct OCV in up
to 16 countries, dependent on their responses to Iraq's
invitation to support OCV. The countries selected by IHEC
are: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, France, Germany,
Holland, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Sweden, Syria, Turkey, the
UAE, the UK, and the United States. UNAMI technical experts
told poloff that IHEC plans to administer OCV over a
three-day period, from March 5-7, with same-day registration
for out of country voters. Under the strong urging of the
UNAMI team, IHEC will locate its OCV headquarters in Erbil,
at the former site of the Kurdistan Regional Electoral Office
(KREO) which was used to administer the Kurdistan Region
elections in July.

Candidate Registration Deadline Dec. 20
--------------


6. (C) Bayraktar explained that candidate registration would
be extended through December 20 to allow time for candidates
to register. She said IHEC plans to hold a press conference
upon the conclusion of the registration. Though fewer than
2,000 candidates had registered to date, Rawi expressed
confidence that parties would register candidates on time,
adding that parties have experience from prior elections, and
so they understand the process. Rawi and Bayraktar each
estimated that about 15,000 candidates were likely to
register; their estimates are based on the number of
candidates that registered for the 441 seats in the January
2009 provincial elections. (Note: UNAMI is projecting
5,000-8,000 candidates will register overall. End Note.)

UNAMI Diplomatic Briefing
--------------


7. (U) At the Iraq Partner's Forum on December 16, the head
of UNAMI's Electoral Assistance Team, Sandra Mitchell,
provided a short briefing on UNAMI's elections assistance.
Mitchell expressed confidence that IHEC would be fully
capable of effectively executing the March 7 elections with
support from UNAMI and USAID implementing partner IFES.
Mitchell added that UNAMI is also providing direct assistance
to the SECURITY planning process through the Election Supreme
Security Committee (ESSC) headed by LTG Ayden Khalid Qadir,
Deputy Minister for Police Affairs and Security, Ministry of
the Interior. Mitchell cautioned that administering OCV will
be one of the most difficult challenges for IHEC, and
explained that UNAMI will lead in assistance in Syria and
Iran where USG-funded IFES does not have permission to
operate. Mitchell also added that UNAMI plans to field 14
election observer teams for the March NATIONAL elections.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) After the passage of the election law amendments on
December 6, IHEC has not missed a beat in planning for
elections on the new date of March 7. Currently the focus is
on OCV and candidate registration, but with UNAMI and IFES
assistance, IHEC will continue to shift priorities as it
executes a complex schedule of activities to be undertaken in
the coming weeks. Recent violence also introduces a new
twist into IHEC's planning; strong leadership and focus will
be needed to prevent fears from distracting IHEC personnel.
USF-I and the Embassy are working closely with IHEC and UNAMI
to ensure that they will be able to continue their dedicated
efforts to administer elections in March without interruption.
FORD