MEK/ASHRAF: GOI EXPECT "QUIET DAY" FOR DECEMBER 15

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003206 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/FO AND NEA/I. NSC FOR PHEE AND VROOMAN. E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/14/2019 TAGS: IR IZ PGOV PREL PTER SUBJECT: MEK/ASHRAF: GOI EXPECT "QUIET DAY" FOR DECEMBER 15 MOVE FROM ASHRAF REF: A. BAGHDAD 3143 ¶B. BAGHDAD 2942 Classified By: Political Counselor Gary Grappo for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1.(S) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: During a briefing with representatives of the international community December 13, the head of the GOI Ashraf Committee, Ali Yassery, stated that the GOI expects a "quiet day" for the "soft move" of Ashraf residents on December 15. The GOI plans to station ten buses outside of the front gate (Lion's Gate) at Ashraf and encourage "voluntary relocation" in the presence of international observers and media, but asserted that the GOI has "no plans" to enter the camp. The Iraqi Army will conduct the move, with assistance from the Iraqi intelligence service, but the army has been instructed to have no direct contact with Ashraf residents, ostensibly to avoid the appearance of a forced relocation. Ashraf residents who voluntarily leave on December 15 would be housed temporarily in hotels in Baghdad, until a permanent relocation site is ready. Embassy and MNFI do not expect significant violence on December 15, however MNFI has an "in extremis" plan for emergency medical assistance if the need arises. It is not clear yet when the GOI might attempt a forced relocation in the (highly likely) event that most Ashraf residents refuse to leave on December 15. However, Yassery plans to travel to Europe on January 15 to press EU governments to accept MEK defectors as refugees, and a forced relocation attempt before his visit appears unlikely. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. BULLHORNS, BUSES, AND HOTELS -------------- 2.(C) The head of the GOI Ashraf Committee, Ali Yassery, briefed delegations from UNAMI, UNHCR, ICRC, and Embassy/MNFI December 13 on the details of the GOI's planned "soft move" of MEK members resident at Ashraf (officially called Camp New Iraq). The GOI plans to send ten buses to Ashraf, to be stationed outside of the camp's main entrance, Lion's Gate. Using bullhorns and loudspeakers from three locations (Lion's Gate, the Iraqi police station at Ashraf, and the water department) the GOI will encourage Ashraf residents to voluntarily board the buses and relocate to hotels in Baghdad. UNAMI confirmed at the meeting that it plans to send observers to Ashraf on December 15. Yassery stated that international media outlets will be present, specifically naming the Associated Press and New York Times. According to Yassery, the Iraqi Army will conduct the move, with the assistance of the Iraqi intelligence service. He asserted that the GOI has no plans to enter the camp. (NOTE: Yassery told us that the buses being sent are newer 2009 models. He quipped that if they tried to enter the camp, the windows on their nice, new buses would quickly be broken by stone-throwing MEK members, which was clearly undesirable. END NOTE.) The Ashraf committee chairman explained that the Iraqi Army has been instructed to have no direct contact with Ashraf residents, ostensibly to avoid the appearance of a forced relocation. He said the buses will stay for 2-3 hours and then depart. 3.(C) Yassery stated the GOI's plan to house MEK members who voluntarily leave Ashraf on December 15 in hotels in Baghdad, Qvoluntarily leave Ashraf on December 15 in hotels in Baghdad, pending the refurbishment of Camp Samawa in Muthanna province. MEK members who voluntarily leave on December 15 will be temporarily relocated to Baghdad hotels, Yassery said. He claimed that the GOI has the capacity to hold up to 5,000 people in various hotels across Baghdad, joking, "There are lots of hotels in Baghdad, but no tourists." Yassery denied Western press reports suggesting that the GOI is considering the Nuqrat al Salman prison facility in Muthanna as a potential site for permanent relocation of the MEK. Asked by UNHCR how long the GOI intends to house MEK members in Baghdad hotels, Yassery at first responded, "Until we get a positive answer from MNFI." (COMMENT: Yassery was referring to Camp Echo in Diwaniyah province, which will ultimately be turned over to the GOI. However, Camp Echo will likely not be ready for turnover until late spring or summer 2010, and MNFI has discouraged the GOI from viewing Echo as a potential MEK relocation site. END COMMENT.) Yassery later confirmed that Camp Samawa in Muthanna province is still the planned relocation site, but acknowledged that it needs refurbishment before the MEK can be relocated there. BAGHDAD 00003206 002 OF 002 EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE PLANS -------------- 4.(S) Asked whether the GOI had a contingency plan for emergency medical treatment, Yassery asserted that there will be ambulances and doctors available and that the Baquba hospital facility could be used for that purpose. (NOTE: In the event that emergency medical treatment is required, and the GOI needs USG assistance, MNFI has prepared a detailed "in extremis" medical assistance contingency plan, however the plan was not discussed during the meeting with Yassery. The MNFI plan, using U.S. forces based at FOB Grizzly, includes ambulances, medics, and security and transport personnel on standby, and a capacity to set up within 2-3 hours temporary facilities for triage, immediate treatment, and medevac to Balad Air Base. END NOTE.) The UNHCR representative also informed Embassy/MNFI separately that UNHCR has 3,000 tents and domestic items on standby alert, which could be set up at Ashraf within 24 hours, in the "worst-case scenario" that large numbers of Ashraf residents flee and need immediate shelter and initial support. (NOTE: The UNHCR representative also approached MNFI/Embassy reps privately prior to the meeting to caution against raising UNHCR's contingency plan, lest the GOI view it as a relocation alternative. This is the first time UNHCR has done contingency planning related to the MEK. END NOTE.) FOLLOW-UP PLAN: "WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS..." -------------- 5.(C) Yassery pointedly declined to answer questions about what the GOI plan is to follow-up on the December 15 move, saying "We'll see what happens." Asked whether the GOI intends to arrest any of the MEK leaders at Ashraf, Yassery said they have no intention of arresting or detaining any MEK leaders, but noted that much will depend on the situation on the ground, and the behavior of the MEK. Yassery said that he plans to travel to Europe on January 15, to press EU governments to accept MEK defectors as refugees. According to Yassery, Human Rights Minister Wijdan Salim will accompany him on the visit. However, when Poloffs spoke separately with the minister, she was still undecided about accompanying Yassery. The minister appeared concerned that the visit would highlight to EU governments her association with GOI policy on the MEK, even though she has no decision-making authority on the matter. COMMENT -------------- 6.(C) The GOI appear committed to refrain from using force on the December 15 "soft move." Embassy/MNFI do not expect violence on that day, particularly given the presence of international observers and media and orders the the Iraqi Army to refrain from approaching camp residents. It is not clear yet, however, when the GOI might attempt a forced relocation of MEK members from Ashraf. With national elections now pushed back until March 7, the Maliki government may feel it has some additional breathing room, but continues to demonstrate its resolve to relocate the MEK. It is also unclear how much information about the December 15 move the GOI has shared with other Iraqi political leaders. Poloffs fielded phone calls December 13 from concerned members of the Sunni Tawafuq bloc, who were under Qconcerned members of the Sunni Tawafuq bloc, who were under the impression that the GOI would attempt to forcibly remove the MEK on December 15, and asked the Embassy to encourage the GOI to delay the move until after the elections. In any case, a forced relocation attempt appears unlikely to take place before Yassery's January 15 visit to Europe. HILL