MEK/ASHRAF: UNAMI RECONVENES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003188 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/FO, NEA/I, NEA/IR. NSC FOR PHEE, VROOMAN, AND MAGSAMEN E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER IR IZ SUBJECT: MEK/ASHRAF: UNAMI RECONVENES EU-AUSTRALIA-CANADA-U.S. IN ANTICIPATION OF DEC 15 REF: BAGDHAD 2841 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Political M/C Gary A. Grappo for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During a follow-up meeting with members of the international community, UNAMI reiterated its call for (largely) EU cooperation on resettlement of Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK) refugees and those with ties to Europe. He voiced concern about the possibility of MEK-provoked violence on December 15 and underscored the importance of being prepared for dealing with an outflow of Ashraf residents in the coming weeks if/when the GOI plans to forcibly remove residents. EU states reaffirmed their willingness to vet candidates but made no firm commitment to accept refugees at this time. END SUMMARY. UNAMI Urges Greater Action -------------- ¶2. (C) Following an initial meeting on October 21 (reftel), UNAMI SRSG Ad Melkert reconvened on December 10 representatives from the EU (UK, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and EU Commission attended),Canada, Australia, U.S., UNHCR, and UNOCHA in anticipation of the GOI's plan to relocate MEK residents from Ashraf on December 15. Melkert voiced concern about the possibility of violence on December 15, largely by MEK provocation, and reiterated his call on participants to identify viable resettlement options for those with confirmed ties to third-countries or deemed refugees. Melkert also said the GOI will brief the international community on Sunday, December 13 on the proposed relocation plan (NOTE: Post will attend and report septel. END NOTE). ¶3. (C) Melkert confirmed the GOI's plant to temporarily relocate residents to hotels in Baghdad before transferring them to Camp Samawa in Muthanna. He encouraged member states to participate in a group "consular" visit to Ashraf immediately after December 15 (and prior to any forcible relocation) in order to begin vetting qualified candidates for resettlement. He also confirmed that UNAMI personnel (Human Rights officer, military advisor, UNOCHA representative) will observe the GOI relocation effort. Melkert also confirmed that a GOI delegation will likely visit Brussels on January 15 to brief the EU on the MEK and request EU assistance on resettlement. (NOTE: The EU Commission representative confirmed that the GOI had sent a letter requesting the EU to accept all 3400 Ashraf residents--an impossible outcome as far as the EU is concerned. END NOTE) EU Remains Cautious -------------- ¶4. (C) The EU Commission representative called on its member states to do a better job of educating their respective governments about the situation, and welcomed the GOI's decision to brief officials in Brussels next month, but cautioned that the GOI "must present a credible plan." Germany reiterated its willingness to consider qualified candidates, notably those with German residency ties (approximately 300) who pass extensive background criminal and security checks. He cautioned that the vetting process will take time. ¶5. (C) The Swedish representative said it was important to "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst" and that while the GOI seemed willing to resolve this peacefully, the MEK were less likely to cooperate. The Canadian representative confirmed that 11 Ahsraf residents were Canadian citizens; Qhowever, none had expressed a desire to leave. The Australian representative confirmed similar responses from its three citizens following a December 8 consular visit to Ashraf (milair provided by MNFI),and said the GOI had dropped leaflets in Ashraf informing residents about the December 15 relocation. (NOTE: Post has not received confirmation regarding the leaflets. However, the GOI had done something similar following the establishment of the police station in July. END NOTE) ¶6. (C) The Italian representative warned about the risk of derailment, noting that his government had stressed "maximum restraint" in conversations with GOI officials. He reiterated his government's willingness to vet well-documented candidates, specifically those with existing and valid ties to Italy (approximately 95),and called on the U.S. to BAGHDAD 00003188 002 OF 002 consider "doing its part" by resettling MEK refugees in the U.S. ¶7. (C) Poloff explained that the U.S. was prepared to resettle the 5 Amcits currently in Ashraf. However, the USG was not in a position at this time to resettle MEK refugees, given the organization's FTO designation and other legal impediments. Participants agreed to a proposed consular visit after December 15. (NOTE: Poloff reaffirmed the USG's standing offer to provide logistical support to Ashraf for the consular delegations. END NOTE) UNHCR: Tents On Stand-by Alert -------------- ¶8. (C) UNHCR is has placed on stand-by alert 3000 tents and personal supplies in the event of large-scale defections or outflows prompted by the relocation or clashes. The materiel can be shipped from Erbil and Basrah in a day and positioned near the perimeter. (NOTE: MNFI has already identified a location on the perimeter of the FOB for such a contingency. END NOTE). ¶9. (C) UNHCR also confirmed that hotels in Baghdad were an acceptable alternative to a processing facility that UNAMI had originally proposed during the October 21 meeting. However, the UNHCR country representative cautioned that MEK members will be more accessible to Iranian officials in Baghdad and noted that the GOI had recently cut-off (albeit for a week) UNHCR access to the Baghdad hotel housing MEK defectors. The UNOCHA representative expressed concern about adequate Iraqi medical facilities in the event of casualties or injuries. Poloff noted that MNFI would be ready to provide emergency medical assistance in coordination with the GOI, similar to what had been provided during the clashes in July. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (C) EU states remain cautious about making firm resettlement offers and usually caveat their remarks about domestic legal impediments that make resettlement, notably of refugees with no ties to the EU, a complicated matter. Post will work with UNAMI to facilitate the proposed consular delegation visit to Ashraf after December 15. HILL