ATTACKS IN NAJAF MAY SIGNAL TREND IN LEAD-UP TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003090

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR IZ
SUBJECT: ATTACKS IN NAJAF MAY SIGNAL TREND IN LEAD-UP TO
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Henry Wooster, A/OPA Director, for reasons 1 (b) and (d)

(U) 1. This is a PRT Najaf reporting cable.

(C) 2. SUMMARY. Najaf Province saw two improvised explosive
device (IED) attacks near Forward Operating Base (FOB)
Endeavor on November 9 and 10, apparently aimed at U.S.
forces and personnel. The November 2 small arms direct fire
incident near the Najaf Chamber of Commerce, coupled with the
two IED detonations, may signal a trend leading up to the
national elections. END SUMMARY.

IED EXPLOSIONS NEAR FOB ENDEAVOR
--------------

(C) 3. An IED explosion occurred on November 9, off an
unimproved road approximately one kilometer from FOB
Endeavor, home to PRT Najaf. U.S. military reported that the
IED was detonated on a motorcycle carrying two small
children. Operation Detachment Alpha (ODA ) ARMY Special
Forces) sources indicate three Iraqi civilians were killed;
local media, however, reported one civilian killed and two
wounded. (NOTE. This is the first IED detonation near FOB
Endeavor since a May 16 attack on a military convoy. See
Reftel. END NOTE.)

(C) 4. A second detonation, this time of an explosively
formed penetrator (EFP) device, occurred the following day.
This detonation occurred within 250 meters of the turn off to
the road leading to FOB Endeavor, and within 50 meters of an
Iraqi Police (IP) checkpoint. There were no casualties in
this attack. While the IP initially promised to turn over
evidence to neighboring FOB Echo in Diwaniyah for forensic
investigation, to date they have not complied.

SHOT FIRED AT CONVOY SECURITY
--------------

(C) 5. A week earlier, a lone gunman fired a single shot at a
convoy security detail near the Najaf Chamber of Commerce,
narrowly missing a US soldier. PRT members were inside the
Chamber attending a meeting with the director of the Women's
Center when the incident occurred. Following standard
procedure, the platoon leader ended the meeting and the
entire convoy returned safely to base.

IRAQI ARMY: ATTACKS COULD HAVE COME FROM LOCAL MILITIAS
-------------- --------------

(C) 6. PRTOffs and the FOB Commander met with the 8th Brigade
3rd Battalion Iraqi ARMY Colonel Salah on Wednesday, November
11to discuss the November 9 attack. Salah speculated that a
U.S. ARMY Corps of Engineer (USACE) convoy that passed by
about 20 minutes earlier may have been the actual target. He
described the device as locally made and placed by local
militia, either Badr or Jaysh Al Madhi (JAM) elements. He
indicated that the second device was approximately 35 meters
from a local IP checkpoint. Salah speculated that the local
IP forces were either lazy for not identifying the device or
complicit in its placement. Salah said that militias
frequently gain individual IP support by threatening a family
member, indicating that any complicit behavior may not have
been strictly voluntary. He also said it was not
inconceivable that IP forces placed the second IED to
demonstrate IP effectiveness in dismantling the IED in a
controlled manner.

ELECTION DAY SECURITY PREPARATIONS
--------------

(C) 7. When asked about security preparations for the
upcoming national elections, Salah had two observations. He
was very interested in Governor Zurfi hosting a conference
with related law enforcement agencies to coordinate and
ensure a smooth election, as was done prior to the January
2009 provincial elections. Second, he advised that USG
vehicles not be out on Election Day and that US PRT personnel
Qvehicles not be out on Election Day and that US PRT personnel
not participate in election observations. According to
Salah, his biggest fear is that one of the local religious
leaders may declare the election illegal due to perceived
interference by U.S. forces or PRT personnel, solely based on
their presence near polling stations.

COMMENT: IS RISE IN SECURITY INCIDENTS A PRELUDE TO ELECTIONS?
-------------- --------------

(C) 8. This is the first direct attack of this type on U.S.
forces in Najaf province since May. The timing of the
attacks is interesting in that they occurred one day after
ratification of a national election law. Also, they were
concurrent to FOB Endeavor's unit changeover to the 3ID

brigade and a week after the shot was fired at the PRT
mission in Najaf city center. It appears that specific
activity against U.S. personnel is picking up in the province
in the run-up to national elections.
HILL