ATTACKS IN NAJAF MAY SIGNAL TREND IN LEAD-UP TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003090 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV IR IZ SUBJECT: ATTACKS IN NAJAF MAY SIGNAL TREND IN LEAD-UP TO ELECTIONS Classified By: Henry Wooster, A/OPA Director, for reasons 1 (b) and (d) (U) 1. This is a PRT Najaf reporting cable. (C) 2. SUMMARY. Najaf Province saw two improvised explosive device (IED) attacks near Forward Operating Base (FOB) Endeavor on November 9 and 10, apparently aimed at U.S. forces and personnel. The November 2 small arms direct fire incident near the Najaf Chamber of Commerce, coupled with the two IED detonations, may signal a trend leading up to the national elections. END SUMMARY. IED EXPLOSIONS NEAR FOB ENDEAVOR -------------- (C) 3. An IED explosion occurred on November 9, off an unimproved road approximately one kilometer from FOB Endeavor, home to PRT Najaf. U.S. military reported that the IED was detonated on a motorcycle carrying two small children. Operation Detachment Alpha (ODA ) Army Special Forces) sources indicate three Iraqi civilians were killed; local media, however, reported one civilian killed and two wounded. (NOTE. This is the first IED detonation near FOB Endeavor since a May 16 attack on a military convoy. See Reftel. END NOTE.) (C) 4. A second detonation, this time of an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) device, occurred the following day. This detonation occurred within 250 meters of the turn off to the road leading to FOB Endeavor, and within 50 meters of an Iraqi Police (IP) checkpoint. There were no casualties in this attack. While the IP initially promised to turn over evidence to neighboring FOB Echo in Diwaniyah for forensic investigation, to date they have not complied. SHOT FIRED AT CONVOY SECURITY -------------- (C) 5. A week earlier, a lone gunman fired a single shot at a convoy security detail near the Najaf Chamber of Commerce, narrowly missing a US soldier. PRT members were inside the Chamber attending a meeting with the director of the Women's Center when the incident occurred. Following standard procedure, the platoon leader ended the meeting and the entire convoy returned safely to base. IRAQI ARMY: ATTACKS COULD HAVE COME FROM LOCAL MILITIAS -------------- -------------- (C) 6. PRTOffs and the FOB Commander met with the 8th Brigade 3rd Battalion Iraqi Army Colonel Salah on Wednesday, November 11to discuss the November 9 attack. Salah speculated that a U.S. Army Corps of Engineer (USACE) convoy that passed by about 20 minutes earlier may have been the actual target. He described the device as locally made and placed by local militia, either Badr or Jaysh Al Madhi (JAM) elements. He indicated that the second device was approximately 35 meters from a local IP checkpoint. Salah speculated that the local IP forces were either lazy for not identifying the device or complicit in its placement. Salah said that militias frequently gain individual IP support by threatening a family member, indicating that any complicit behavior may not have been strictly voluntary. He also said it was not inconceivable that IP forces placed the second IED to demonstrate IP effectiveness in dismantling the IED in a controlled manner. ELECTION DAY SECURITY PREPARATIONS -------------- (C) 7. When asked about security preparations for the upcoming national elections, Salah had two observations. He was very interested in Governor Zurfi hosting a conference with related law enforcement agencies to coordinate and ensure a smooth election, as was done prior to the January 2009 provincial elections. Second, he advised that USG vehicles not be out on Election Day and that US PRT personnel Qvehicles not be out on Election Day and that US PRT personnel not participate in election observations. According to Salah, his biggest fear is that one of the local religious leaders may declare the election illegal due to perceived interference by U.S. forces or PRT personnel, solely based on their presence near polling stations. COMMENT: IS RISE IN SECURITY INCIDENTS A PRELUDE TO ELECTIONS? -------------- -------------- (C) 8. This is the first direct attack of this type on U.S. forces in Najaf province since May. The timing of the attacks is interesting in that they occurred one day after ratification of a national election law. Also, they were concurrent to FOB Endeavor's unit changeover to the 3ID brigade and a week after the shot was fired at the PRT mission in Najaf city center. It appears that specific activity against U.S. personnel is picking up in the province in the run-up to national elections. HILL