RRT ERBIL: KURDISTANI REACTION TO THE ELECTION LAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003006 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU IZ SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: KURDISTANI REACTION TO THE ELECTION LAW BAGHDAD 00003006 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: RRT Team Leader Andrew Snow for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is an RRT Erbil cable. ¶2. (C) Summary: The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) welcomed passage of the election law. The Kurds achieved their paramount objectives, by virtue of the law passing with the inclusion of Kirkuk and without compensatory seats reserved for Arabs or Turkoman in the province. However, in private conversations with officials below the top level of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK),there was concern that the new formulation of seats per province would result in the Kurds winning a smaller percentage of seats in the new Council of Representatives (CoR),and suspicions about Sunni Arab intentions. In contrast, while opposition Goran,s (Change) official media has characterized the law as a defeat for the Kurds, in private conversations, the Goran was upbeat about the new law, especially the provision for open lists. Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) officials were critical of the way that the law addressed Kirkuk. The KDP and PUK are each trying to convince Goran and KIU to form a common Kurdish national list. End Summary. KRG: --- ¶3. (C) The KRG senior leadership was in close contact with Kurdish MPs in the CoR throughout the negotiations, and achieved what they repeatedly stated were their primary goals: passage of a law that would allow elections to go forward, including in Kirkuk. In the end, they also succeeded in heading off compensatory seats in Kirkuk for Arabs and Turkomans, an idea they viewed as unjust and unconstitutional. Minister Responsible for External Relations Falah Mustafa Bakir told RRT Team Leader that the KRG was pleased with the election law and that the Cabinet had passed a statement of support. In private, however, party officials, reactions were mixed, raising concerns about some aspects of the law. KDP: -------------- ¶4. (C) Ja,afar Emeniky, a member of the KDP Leadership Committee and head of the KDP Election Bureau, said that while the KDP could work with open lists, high illiteracy rates among Iraqis would mean that many people would have difficulty voting. (Note: The CIA Factbook estimates that Iraq has a 74% literacy rate. End Note.) He was also disappointed by the number of seats allocated to the three Kurdistan Region provinces. He added that in the new CoR the Kurdistan Region would win 40 seats out of 323 (12.3%) instead of 38 seats out of 275 (13.8%) that they have in the current CoR. By his calculation the Kurds would effectively lose several percentage points out of the total number of seats in the CoR. KRG Parliamentary Leader Kamal Kirkuki also complained about the expected reduction of the share of Kurdish seats. Emeniky also criticized the idea of increasing the number of members of parliament based on population. (Note: Under Article 49 of the Iraqi Constitution, the number of parliamentary seats is based on population. Since no official census has been held recently, Some Kurdish politicians argue that there should be no increase in seats for this election. End Note.) ¶5. (C) Ja'afar Emeniky questioned why the Ministry of the Interior and the UN should have a role in the special review committee to be established to review Kirkuk,s voter registry. He also voiced concerns that the Baathists are plotting a coup, explaining that this is why the Baathists wanted to postpone the political process. Kamal Kirkuki repeated his mantra that the Kurds will never accept anything other than the Article 140 process to determine the future of Kirkuk. He accused UNAMI of having secret 'negotiations' QKirkuk. He accused UNAMI of having secret 'negotiations' with Arabs and Turkomans. ¶6. (C) Sarbast Lazgin, Head of the KDP Branch in Dohuk, echoed many other KRGers by saying that the KDP has no objections to the verification of voter registries in any of the governorates of Iraq, but that they object to the fact that Kirkuk, and only Kirkuk, was mentioned by name in the law. Sarbast was also concerned that five minority seats were allotted to Christians, but only one to Yezidis. PUK: -------------- ¶7. (C) Stran Abdallah, editor-in chief of President Talabani's daily newspaper, Kurdistani Nwe, described the passage of the election law as another "success for the Kurds." He added that Kurdish politicians in Baghdad "have thwarted another plot of the hostile forces." ¶8. (C) Sadi Pire, PUK Politburo Member and Director of External Relations, said that the Kurdistani alliance was not ruling Iraq alone and must consider the interests of all the BAGHDAD 00003006 002.2 OF 003 parties. He stated that if one took into consideration all of the players including all of those in Baghdad, no law could have passed that was better than this one. He considered the law a success for those who believe in the constitution. ¶9. (C) Echoing a common KDP-PUK refrain, Pire said that that the major problem was not the election or Kirkuk, but that the Baathists wanted to create obstacles so that the Iraqi government would fail. At that point, he said, the Baathists will try to come to power through a coup. He added that, in the last few months, the Baathists bombed selected ministries in Baghdad, and creating obstacles to the election law was just another part of their plan to bring down the Government. (Note: There is no hard evidence that directly links the recent bombings in Baghdad to the Baathists. End Note.) ¶10. (C) Farid Asasard, a member of the PUK leadership council and director of PUK,s think tank, said that while he was personally in favor of open lists, PUK leadership was not enthusiastic. He thought that open lists would make it difficult to make sure that 25% of the seats in the CoR are won by women, per Article 49 of the Constitution. Similarly, Mala Bahtiyar, a PUK politburo member and PUK spokesperson said the PUK was not in favor of the open list system because it made it more difficult to build coalitions. He further stated that the PUK was very pleased that the compensatory seats in Kirkuk had been dropped. ¶11. (C) Arsalan Baiz, Deputy Parliamentary Leader, said that both PUK and KDP politburos decided to encourage the opposition parties to join KDP-PUK in a single Kurdish list for the January elections. On November 12, KRG Representative Rowsch Shaways told Senior Advisor to Northern Iraq that KDP has had direct talks with Goran regarding a single national list. He indicated that Goran is still reluctant about joining one list but agreed to unite with the Kurdish Alliance on Kurdish national issues. Baiz argued that the open list system increased the probability that opposition parties would accept a common list, since the voters could express direct support for particular candidates. Baiz also said the KRG leaders have yet to decide whether to include the proposed KRG constitution on the January ballot. Goran (Change) Movement: -------------- ¶12. (C) Mohamed Tawfiq, Nawshirwan,s deputy and Shoresh Haji, a high ranking Goran leader and close confidant of Nawshirwan, were both pleased with the new election law. Tawfiq said that the open lists would reduce the influence of the politburos in choosing the candidates and would also make the newly elected representatives directly responsible to their constituents. ¶13. (C) Both Tawfiq and Haji said that Goran was waiting to get more information about the details of the process. Mohamed Tawfiq said they would likely put up candidates in 6 governorates: Diyala, Dohuk, Erbil, Kirkuk, Mosul, and Sulaimaniyah. They might also run candidates in Baghdad. Shoresh Haji said that their main concern is whether the process can remain free of the influence of the ruling parties and whether voters will be free from intimidation. ¶14. (C) In contrast to these officials, private comments, Goran,s Rozhnama, weekly dubbed the approval of the law a "defeat" for the Kurds. The editorial added that by allowing Kirkuk to be mentioned by name in the electoral law, the Kurds had effectively agreed to special status for it. KIU: -------------- ¶15. (C) Dr. Hadi Ali, Chief of the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) Politburo, criticized the fact that Kirkuk was repeatedly listed by name in the new election law which he Qrepeatedly listed by name in the new election law which he said meant that Kirkuk was effectively given a special status. He was also unhappy with the way that the new law divided up compensatory seats. In the 2005 election, Ali said, these seats were given to smaller parties who had just missed the 100,000 vote threshold. However, in the new CoR, Ali predicted that smaller parties would be at a disadvantage because the seats would instead be given to lists based upon their total percentage of votes, meaning that large lists would divide up the seats. KIU was pleased, however, that the lists would be open because it would give voters a chance to vote for specific candidates. Kurdistan Siewki, head of the KIU list in the Sulaimaniyah Provincial Council pointed out that the law would push smaller parties to ally with larger parties to make their votes count, but that due to open lists the smaller parties still might not win direct representation. Comment: -------------- ¶16. (C) Though the senior KRG leadership welcomed the outcome, other KRGers still insisted on applying a standard of "justice", no matter how unrealistic in the broader Iraqi political context. The distribution of the compensatory BAGHDAD 00003006 003.2 OF 003 seats has not gone unnoticed by the KDP/PUK coalition. They already held joint meetings with high-ranking politburo members to strategize about how to create a larger coalition with other parties. At the same time, Goran's parliamentary bloc continues to reject cooperation with KDP-PUK leadership in parliament, even when the leadership offered Goran chairmanship of three committees. KDP-PUK outreach to Goran will test whether Goran's heretofore rejectionist stance will trump Goran,s support for Kurdish solidarity on national issues. HILL