IRAQI ELECTION LAW UPDATE: NOVEMBER 5, 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002951 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV IZ SUBJECT: IRAQI ELECTION LAW UPDATE: NOVEMBER 5, 2009 REF: BAGHDAD 2944 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Gary A. Grappo for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. SUMMARY. Speaker Ayad al-Samarra'i, joined by Sunni Arab and Kurdish MPs from Kirkuk, announced mid-afternoon November 5 agreement in principle on a proposal for voting rules for Kirkuk province and that a vote would take place November 7 (Text at para. 6). The run-up to Saturday, however, promises to be anything but smooth. Late in the day, UNAMI and local media reported that the Arabs and Turkomans appear to be having second thoughts. Post's initial assessment of the new Kirkuk proposal is that it is a positive development politically, and that the text can be implemented (unlike earlier proposals). Now, we must navigate the delicate task of holding the various actors to vote on Saturday. END SUMMARY. Early Meetings Set the Stage -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met with Speaker al-Samarra'i the morning of November 5 to review the state of play on the election law. Samarra'i acknowledged that KRG President Masoud Barzani continued to object to language in various proposals awarding national compensatory seats to the Arabs and Turkomans but not to the Kurds. The Ambassador provided Samarra'i with possible alternative language that would have the effect of reserving one compensatory seat each to the Arabs and the Turkomans, without naming groups. Samarra'i expressed support for the alternative, saying he thought the Arab and Turkoman sides would voice some initial reservations but would ultimately accept language along the lines suggested by the Ambassador. The Speaker said he would present it to Kurdish bloc leader Friad Rwanduzi to gauge his reaction. Samarra'i complained that Kurdish Deputy Speaker Arif Tayfour was using his position to block any mention of the election law on the daily Council of Representatives (COR) agenda, effectively preventing the law from coming up for a vote, unless he agreed in advance with the proposed draft language. The Speaker said he did not object if the Kurds wanted to boycott such a vote, but described Tayfour's tactics as an abuse of his position. ¶3. (C) Deputy Speaker Khalid Attiya told POL M/C that he would accept Samarra'i's new Kirkuk proposal or any arrangement that managed to unite the Kurds, Arabs, and Turkomans. He hoped all sides would show flexibility. Attiya reminded POL M/C that a vote on November 5 would be impossible if an entire party or bloc chose to boycott. POL M/C emphasized that the United States was talking to President Barzani in Vienna and to Kurdish leaders in Erbil and Baghdad to encourage their support for a vote in parliament. Attiya cautioned that President Barzani would avoid recognition of special status for Kirkuk "at any cost", and advised avoiding mention of Kirkuk in order to create a viable proposal. ¶4. (C) POL M/C shared the proposal draft language with COR Deputy Speaker Arif Tayfour and Kurdish Alliance List (KAL) acting bloc leader Friad Rwanduzi later the same morning. They responded that Kurdish leaders opposed allocating two compensatory seats to Arabs and Turkomans in Kirkuk. Tayfour and Rwanduzi also told POL M/C that these groups had oppressed Kurds and viewed giving them seats as "rewarding" them. They also voiced further opposition over the provisions, arguing they violate the constitution, which Tayfour and Rwanduzi view as the only guarantor of Kurds' rights in the face of Arab hostility. Referring to reports Qrights in the face of Arab hostility. Referring to reports that the KAL bloc planned to boycott voting on any election law compromise that included compensatory seats, POL M/C strongly urged the KAL to participate and cautioned that the Kurds' friends in the United States would not understand a decision by the Kurds to block a compromise that allowed timely adoption of a law and holding on-time elections. POL M/C concluded by saying we expected them to convene for the vote and participate in Iraq's democratic process. Party Leaders Announce Agreement -------------- ¶5. (C) Early afternoon, Speaker Samarra'i announced agreement in principle on text for voting rules for Kirkuk province. The proposal was endorsed by Sunni Kirkuki MPs Omar al-Jabouri and Muhammad al-Tamim and PUK Legal Committee member Khaled Schwany (a hardline Kurd from Kirkuk). Kurdish Deputy Speaker Aref Tayfur (KDP) and MP Friad Rwanduzi (PUK, Acting Kurdish Alliance List bloc leader) were reportedly studying the proposal at the time. After the announcement, the Speaker pressed hard to hold the vote November 6; BAGHDAD 00002951 002 OF 002 however, Kurdish bloc leaders asked to delay until November 7, ostensibly to allow President Talabani -- who was scheduled to arrive in Baghdad late November 5 -- time to review it. Acting KAL bloc leader Rwanduzi later told POLOFF that not all Kurdish MPs were on board with the compromise negotiated on November 5. KAL bloc leaders and MPs are to meet on November 6 with President Talabani to continue discussing the new proposal. Text of November 5 Agreement in Principle -------------- (BEGIN TEXT) First: Exceptionally, elections shall be held in Kirkuk and governorates with disputed lists based on the 2009 lists. Second: A committee shall be established by the CoR and it shall be comprised of the Ministries of Planning, Interior and Trade as well as IHEC and a representative from the Article 140 Committee of the Federal Council of Ministers, with the assistance of the United Nations. It shall review and scrutinize the errors and increases in the aforementioned voter list according to data derived from national statistics based on criteria approved by the CoR, which (this criteria) should be used as a basis for the work of the committee in order to create a voter list for those governorates. The committee should complete its task within one year of the date of its establishment. Third: Should errors in the voter registry reach 15 percent the elections shall be repeated in this governorate. Fourth: The results of the elections in these governorates (announced) prior to the review shall not be used as a basis for any electoral event and shall not be considered a precedent for any political or administrative situation. Fifth: Two national compensatory seats shall be allocated to the Arab and Turkoman components (after deducting the share of the Kurdish component from the compensatory seats based on the percentage of votes they acquired in the elections). These two seats shall be given to the Arab and Turkoman lists that receive the highest number of votes in Kirkuk." (END TEXT) Next Steps -------------- ¶7. (C) Post's initial assessment of the new Kirkuk proposal is that it is a positive development politically, and that the text can be implemented (unlike earlier proposals). In an evening phone call, UNAMI SRSG Ad Melkert and the Ambassador agreed that we finally have what we have been missing: "a sense of urgency" felt by Iraqi MPs. Samarra'i appears to be determined to bring the election law to a vote on November 7. We have also received indications that the Legal Committee will present additional amendments for the election law -- such as open/ closed list, and whether COR seats should be set at 275 or 311 -- via a series of "options" for decision by the plenary. Now, we must navigate the delicate task of holding the various actors to their commitment to vote on Saturday. By day's end, we had received preliminary reports from UNAMI that Arabs and Turkomans may already be having second thoughts about the proposal. As promises among Arabs, Turkomans and Kurds are frequently short-lived and fragile at best -- all will look anxiously for a final vote in the COR. HILL