IRAQI ELECTION LAW UPDATE, NOVEMBER 1, 2009: UNAMI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002920 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV IZ SUBJECT: IRAQI ELECTION LAW UPDATE, NOVEMBER 1, 2009: UNAMI PROPOSAL GETS TRACTION REF: BAGHDAD 2913 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Gary A. Grappo for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Influential Arab and Turkoman lawmakers in Baghdad and Kirkuk told U.S. and UNAMI officials on November 1 they would support the UNAMI proposal, and Speaker Sammara'i agreed to call a vote on the election law the next day (November 2). Yet, although the vote may be near, it is not certain, as the Kurdish leadership has not yet committed to the UNAMI proposal. Masrour Barzani, son of KRG President Masoud Barzani, told the Ambassador that he was "satisfied" with the proposal, but stopped short of committing to support it. MP Friad Rwanduzi (PUK) -- who was possibly speaking without instruction from Erbil -- told poloffs that the Kurds were against specific elements of the UNAMI proposal. Post, working closely with UNAMI, will intensify its engagement with all sides to ensure that conditions are right for a successful parliamentary vote on an election law November 2. END SUMMARY. Sunnis Show Cautious Support -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador briefed Council of Representatives (COR) Speaker Ayad Samarra'i the morning of November 1 about the latest UNAMI proposal to resolve the election law impasse (Reftel). The Ambassador noted that the Kirkuki Arabs had indicated preliminary support for the proposal but that the Turkoman position was not yet clear. Samarra'i asked whether the Kurds supported the proposal. The Ambassador indicated he had not yet spoken to them but planned to call Barzani's son when he returned to the office, and expected a Washington call later in the day to KRG President Masoud Barzani. The Ambassador also told Samarra'i that SRSG Melkert had spoken to Mohammed Rida, the son of Grand Ayatollah Sistani, the evening of October 31, who had assured Melkert of Sistani's support for the proposal. ¶3. (C) The Speaker noted that it would strengthen the proposal if the committee to review the 2009 voter list could be formed and at least begin its work before the January elections. POL M/C explained that the proposal could allow for this since the text of the proposal did not state when precisely the committee would be created. Samarra'i observed that proposals similar to this one had been on the table for a month and rejected by the Sunni Arabs and Turkomans, but with the pressure building in past few days, they had begun to feel isolated and concerned they could end up with a solution forced on them. The Speaker also acknowledged that the latest proposal gave them "more cash in hand" with the two compensatory seats. ¶4. (C) Sunni MPs Osama Tikriti and Salim Jabouri (both Iraqi Islamic Party) told the DCM November 1 that they thought Kirkuk MP Omar al-Jabouri would be supportive of the October 31 UNAMI proposal. They also indicated their support for the plan to the DCM. (Comment: Neither Tikriti, Secretary General of the IIP, nor Jabouri, COR Legal Committee Deputy Chairman, are from Kirkuk, but both have been influential COR voices on this issue. End Comment.) Later, Sunni MP Saleh al-Mutlaq (Iraqi Front for National Dialogue) expressed general support for the UNAMI plan to the DCM, though he voiced concerns that the use of the 2009 voter registry could set a precedent for future electoral events in Kirkuk despite specific disclaimers to the contrary in the proposal. UNAMI D/SRSG Andrew Gilmour asked Sunni Arab MP Mohammed Tamim from Kirkuk to privately engage Turkoman MPs to solicit their QKirkuk to privately engage Turkoman MPs to solicit their support. In a meeting with the Ambassador's Senior Advisor for Northern Iraq (ASANI) on November 1, three Sunni Arab members of the Kirkuk Provincial Council accepted that using the 2004 voter registration list was untenable, agreed to the concept of a compensatory seat for Sunni Arabs in Kirkuk, expressed strong appreciation for direct USG involvement to break the election law impasse and called for a public statement of support by the U.S. for open lists. Turkomans Seem Close to Accepting -------------- ¶5. (C) POL M/C briefed Deputy Speaker Khalid Attiya on the substance of the October 31 proposal. Attiya stated that the plan sounded reasonable and expressed hope that the Kirkuk Arabs and Turkomans would accept this deal, as they had originally requested two compensatory seats each; he implied that the Turkoman side would need a nudge from Ankara to agree. POL M/C said that UNAMI believes that Arab Kirkukis are prepared to accept the proposal, but noted that the UN and United States were not yet sure of the Turkoman reaction. BAGHDAD 00002920 002 OF 003 When POL M/C asked if the COR might vote on an election law by November 2, Attiya said it would be possible if all of the relevant players were consulted in advance. (NOTE: The Ambassador spoke with Turkish Ambassador Murat Ozcelik October 31 and pressed him to get the Turkoman leaders on board with this proposal. END NOTE.) ¶6. (C) A group of seven Turkoman political leaders in Kirkuk told the ASANI November 1 that they were very pleased that the United States was now involved in the process. Notably, none of the Turkomans questioned the need to use the 2009 voter registration list, despite the fact that last week all had said it was unacceptable. The group included Ali Mahdi Sadiq, a member of the Iraqi Turkoman Front who is characteristically combative on this issue and a close political ally of hardline Sunni Arabs in Hawija. Sadiq subsequently called Sunni Arab MP Omar al-Jabouri at the COR to brief him on the UNAMI proposal; al-Jabouri told him he could accept "all he heard." Through Sadiq, al-Jabouri asked for a written copy of the proposal. ¶7. (C) In coordination with the Embassy, UNAMI D/SRSG Andrew Gilmour met November 1 with Turkoman COR members Saad Eddin Muhammad Ergec (Iraqi Turkoman Front),Muhammad al-Bayyati (Badr - Shi,a Turkoman) and Fawzi Akram (Sadr Trend - Shi,a Turkoman). Noting that the Kurds had already rejected a number of proposals, the trio declined to give "a final answer" to the UNAMI proposal until the UN and the United States had secured a favorable response from the Kurds. That said, they characterized the UNAMI proposal as "feasible" and said if the UN and the United States could secure Kurdish support for it, they could deliver the Turkomans and Arabs. Kirkuki Arab MP Omar Jabouri echoed the same sentiment in a chance encounter at the COR with the Ambassador and POL M/C, urging the United States to secure Kurdish support for the proposal. Kurdish Position in Question -------------- ¶8. (C) Masrour Barzani, son of KRG President Masoud Barzani, told the Ambassador in a November 1 telcon that he was "satisfied" with the UNAMI proposal, but stopped short of committing support. However, influential MP Friad Rwanduzi (PUK) -- who was possibly speaking without instruction from Erbil -- later told poloffs that the Kurds were against the proposal because it included specific mention of Kirkuk, compensatory seats for Arabs and Turkomans, and a second election in Kirkuk in 2011. Rwanduzi, who has authority to speak for President Jalal Talabani, told poloff that he planned to meet with Vice President Adel al-Mahdi to seek clarity on his now defunct proposal for voting rules in Kirkuk. Also on November 1, members of the Kirkuk Brotherhood List, a largely PUK-affiliated entity, advised the ASANI that they "strongly objected" to the UNAMI proposal and considered it unconstitutional. During the meeting with ASANI, MP Saadi Barzinji, the KDP bloc leader, called one member to castigate the proposal. (Note: Barzinji's critical call likely indicated a lack of Kurdish coordination on the UNAMI proposal. End Note.) ¶9. (C) The Ambassador relayed to ISCI Chairman Ammar al-Hakim on November 1 that the new UNAMI election law proposal takes into account multiple views and has won the approval of the Arabs and Turkomans from Kirkuk; he predicted the Kurds would eventually agree. Hakim cautioned that "his sources" say the Kurds still have reservations about the new proposal. The Ambassador replied the United States would Qproposal. The Ambassador replied the United States would discuss the draft law with Masoud Barzani this evening. Later the same day, VP Abd al-Mahdi told the Ambassador that he favors the new UNAMI proposal and recommended that the United States also engage KRG PM Barham Salih to shore up Kurdish support. Poloffs have learned that Kurdish MPs invited to an investment conference in Germany opted not to attend and thus are available to travel to Baghdad for a vote on an election law in the COR on November 2. ¶10. (C) In a separate meeting with the Ambassador, ISCI/BADR MP Humam al-Hammoudi expressed support for the UNAMI proposal to the Ambassador but emphasized that it would be important that the voter registration review committee for Kirkuk, as called for in the proposal, not blame the Kurds for fraud or other problems with the list. Hammoudi also made clear that ISCI would want to see Kurdish support for the proposal as it would not want to place itself in opposition to the Kurds. Da'wa party leader Ali al-Adeeb was also supportive but noted that pockets of Kurdish resistance to the proposal were still picking holes in it by suggesting a compensatory seat for the Kurds also, a proposal that the Ambassador rejected as unworkable. BAGHDAD 00002920 003 OF 003 ¶11. (C) On the ground in Kirkuk, a group of 15 members of the Kirkuk Brotherhood List, including Kirkuk Provincial Council Speaker Rizgar Ali (Kurd, PUK),were unanimous and emphatic in opposing the UNAMI proposal during their meeting with the ASANI. They argued the proposal would violate the constitution by allocating seats on a non-electoral basis, award Arabs and Turkomans a "gift" they had not earned at the ballot box and constitute de facto "special status" for Kirkuk, an unacceptable redline for the Kurds. In a separate meeting, members of Kirkuk's KDP chapter suggested to PRT officers that the entire country (not just Kirkuk) have a new election after one year, or that the entire election be delayed for one year. HILL