MAYSAN ELECTION: DA'WA AND SADRISTS CONFIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000291 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IR IZ SUBJECT: MAYSAN ELECTION: DA'WA AND SADRISTS CONFIDENT Classified By: PRT Team Leader Dan Foote for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is a Maysan PRT reporting cable. ¶2. (C/REL MCFI) Summary: On February 3, Da'wa leader and current Provincial Council (PC) Deputy Chairman Latif Abud told the PRT that he expects his coalition list will take nearly half of the 27 PC seats contested in Maysan's January 31 election. Sadrist PC member and Provincial Reconstruction and Development Committee (PRDC) Chairman Mohan Mahy Shabeeb explained that he expected final results would show a close finish between Da'wa's "State of Law" coalition and his own OMS/Sadrist Trend-backed Tayar al-Ahrar (Free Independent Trend). Mohan, who ran on the Tayar al-Ahrar list, anticipated a near-even split between the Sadrists and Da'wa, with each winning seven or eight seats. He predicted ISCI's poor showing at the polls would result in only two or three seats. Mohan revealed that current Sadrist Governor Adel Mohder al-Maliki could emerge as one of two leading Tayar al-Ahrar-backed candidates in potential negotiations over the Governor and/or Deputy Governor slots. End Summary. Sadrists and Da'wa: Feeling Good -------------- ¶3. (C/REL MCFI) Despite rumors of an impending sweep of the southern provinces by Prime Minister Maliki's "State of Law" coalition, Sadrist PRDC Chairman Mohan Mahy Shabeeb told the PRT that he remained optimistic about his party's showing in Maysan during a February 3 meeting with the PRT at FOB Garry Owen. Mohan, who was a leading candidate on the OMS/Sadrist Trend-backed Tayar al-Ahrar, said the Sadrists were running neck and neck with Da'wa in Maysan. He predicted that both Da'wa and the Sadrists could win seven or eight of the 27 PC seats. Similar to other provinces, ISCI does not appear to have performed well in Maysan. Mohan predicted ISCI would capture only two or three PC seats. In a separate telephone conversation, Deputy PC Chair and Da'wa provincial party chief Latif Abud Kaseem confidently told Team Leader that he anticipated Da'wa would win "12 or 13" PC seats. Names Floated for Leadership Posts -------------- ¶4. (C/REL MCFI) In discussing potential candidates for leadership roles in the new provincial government, including PC Chairman, Governor, and Deputy Governor positions, Mohan stated that he and outgoing Governor Adel Mohder al-Maliki would likely be Sadrist Tayar al-Ahrar's leading candidates for top provincial executive offices in negotiations with the incoming PC. While he cautioned that political horse trading can be unpredictable, Mohan pointed to the distinct possibility of Da'wa and the Sadrists dividing top provincial posts. When asked who Da'wa's likely top contenders would be, he speculated that current PC members Latif Abud Kaseem (Deputy PC Chair) and Mohammed Shi'a, as well as tribal leader Sheikh Ali al-Badi, were likely to be the leading Da'wa personalities in the fray. Comment -------------- ¶5. (C/REL MCFI) Despite numerous headlines and rumors of an impending Da'wa sweeping victory, Sadrists have not given up the ghost yet in Maysan. Mohan's comments about his party's possible interest in Governor Maliki was unexpected, as the Sadrist Governor did not run for a PC seat and had indicated that he would not seek another term as Governor. Whether the Sadrists maintain a significant role in the PC and garner any provincial leadership slots hinges on the final tally and back-room negotiations, but the sense is that Maysan will no longer be largely controlled by Sadrist elements. End comment. CROCKER