TURKOMANS: THE THIRD WHEEL ON ELECTION LAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002864

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: TURKOMANS: THE THIRD WHEEL ON ELECTION LAW

Classified By: Political Counselor Yuri Kim for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Turkoman intransigence on Kirkuk's treatment
in the national elections has become a key sticking point in
achieving consensus on a national election law. In
discussions over how to divvy Kirkuk's allocation of seats in
Parliament, the minority Turkoman insist on representation
equal to that of the Kurds and Arabs, who far outnumber them
in Kirkuk. The Kurds are opposed to this arrangement, as are
the Arabs. At the same time, Kirkuki Arabs are reticent to
negotiate any deal that leaves Turkoman concerns unaddressed.
The complex three-way negotiations have so far resulted in
deadlock. END SUMMARY.

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Turkoman Politics
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2. (C) There are currently 9 Turkoman MPs in the Council of
Representatives (COR) representing the community's estimated
1.7 million people who reside predominantly in the provinces
of Kirkuk and Ninewa. The 9 Turkoman MPs are politically
fractured, with four Shia MPs, including Fryad Omar Abdullah
and Muhammad al-Bayati, caucusing with the Islamic Supreme
Council of Iraq (ISCI); two MPs caucusing with the Iraqi
Islamic Party (IIP); and three independent Turkomans such as
Walid Muhammad al-Sherika of the Sunni Turkoman Brotherhood
and Sa'addin Ergec of the Iraqi Turkoman Front (ITF).
Despite their shared ethnicity, the various Turkoman parties
have shown no desire to negotiate as a cohesive bloc and in
fact in some cases openly feud with one another. Moving into
the national elections, the various Turkoman parties have
agreed to join different coalitions. On October 4, there
were press reports announcing the formation of a national
Turkoman coalition, but to date this list has not
materialized.

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Positions on Election Law
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3. (C) The one issue on which the various Turkoman MPs agree
is the inaccuracy of the Kirkuk voter registration lists, but
how to deal with those lists has them divided. On October
22, Turkey-backed Iraqi Turkoman Front leader Sa'addin Ergec
told Pol M/C that he wants open-list elections to take place
on time (January 2010),but with voters added to the 2004
voter registration list to account for reasonable demographic
growth and for those who had turned 18 years old and were now
eligible to vote since 2003. Realizing that a complete
revision of the list could probably not be concluded prior to
the election, Ergec proposed a quota system for Kirkuk that
would give four representatives (seats) each to the Arab,
Kurd and Turkoman communities and one seat to the Christians.
ITF Director Aydin Aksu was less optimistic, telling POLOFF
on October 19 that he expects a delay of up to 1-3 months in
passing the law. According to Aksu, the Turkomans favor at
least a one-month delay in order to provide time to review
the Kirkuk voter lists. (Note: Most of the major party blocs
in the Parliament appear amenable to reviewing the voter
lists as long as the effort is not focused solely on Kirkuk,
but also on other areas that have seen large demographic
growth since 2003. However, Ergec rejected any comparison of
Kirkuk to other provinces like Ninewa, insisting that the
population of Mosul had increased by 15% whereas the
population of Kirkuk had risen 100% since 2003. End note.)


4. (C) On October 18, Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI)
Shia Turkoman Mohammad al-Bayati offered Poloffs two
proposals. Al-Bayati stated that the "Arab-Turkoman"
proposal calls for creating a committee, comprised of Council
of Representatives (COR) members and representatives from
Qof Representatives (COR) members and representatives from
IHEC and the Ministries of Interior and Planning. This
committee would review the voting records of Iraqis who moved
to Kirkuk since 2003 using the 1957 census as a baseline.
The objective of the committee would be to determine who is
eligible to vote in Kirkuk. Bayati said this new committee
would take decisions based on majority rule, not consensus.
If this committee is unable to come to a decision, then
al-Bayati proposed that elections be held using the 2004
voter registry by somehow dividing Kirkuk province into four
electoral districts for this election so that the end result
is that Arabs, Kurds and Turkomans each receive an equal
number of MPs.


5. (C) Bayati's second proposal was to use the 2003 public
distribution system (food ration cards) as a baseline, with
each province allowed to accept more voters based on a 2.6%
population increase per year for the 2010 election. (Note:
Bayati said this 2.6% figure represents the international
standard for population growth. End note.) He told POLOFF
that the Kurds are asking for a 5-10% per year population

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increase in Kirkuk to account for all the newly arrived
Kurdish residents, but said this is unacceptable. Asked
whether ISCI would support the Turkoman position on the
elections law, Bayati acknowledged that ISCI has a strategic
relationship with the Kurds, but hoped that the party would
not side with the Kurds at the expense of Turkomans as it had
in the past. He claimed that during Ammar al-Hakim's speech
at last weekend's ISCI party conference, Hakim had changed
his policy on Kirkuk. Instead of calling for Kirkuk to be
resolved "through the constitution," he had said it should be
resolved "the appropriate way" implying, according to Bayati,
that ISCI no longer sees Article 140 as the only mechanism by
which to resolve Kirkuk's status.


6. (C) Another ISCI-affiliated Shia Turkoman, MP Fryad Omar
Abdullah, told POLOFF that he would prefer that Kirkuk not be
included in the national elections than that the city vote
with inaccurate voter lists. He said he did not care how
long it would take to get an accurate voter registration list
and that he would not accept compensatory seats for Kirkuk.


7. (C) Kurdish-aligned Turkoman Brotherhood Party COR MP
Walid Muhammad al-Sherika told Poloffs on October 16, that he
publicly supports an open list, but privately prefers closed
list, single district on-time election. He explained that a
closed list system would give minorities a better chance and
that he would rather delay passage of the law to allow more
time for consensus.


8. (C) COMMENT: The Turkomans' intransigence on the Kirkuk
issue has been a key factor in the COR's failure to pass a
national elections law. The impasse has forced Iraq's
political leaders to use the Political Council for National
Security (PCNS) to build a consensus on a draft law. The
Turkomans are not likely to be included in the final PCNS
deliberations given their small numbers and fractured
positions, which would enable a compromise without formal
Turkoman input. How the Turkoman react to any PCNS decision
remains to be seen. END COMMENT.
FORD