IRAQI ELECTION LAW UPDATE OCTOBER 19, 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002817

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (GARBLED TEXT)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI ELECTION LAW UPDATE OCTOBER 19, 2009

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Gary A. Grappo for Reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Iraq's Council of Representatives (COR)
failed to reach agreement October 19 to move the election law
forward. At an early meeting on October 19, Speaker Ayad
al-Samarra'i cautioned CDA and POL M/C that October 18
negotiations on a draft amendment to the 2005 election law
had broken down. He asked the U.S. Embassy, in tandem with
the Turkish Embassy and UNAMI, to engage with Sunni Arabs,
Turkomen and the Kurds to press for consensus on voting rules
for Kirkuk province. The Speaker, Kurdish MPs, and members
of the Legal Committee continued closed door negotiations
throughout the afternoon, but by early evening there was no
agreement on treatment of Kirkuk, and the COR adjourned for
the day. Following Embassy intervention, the Speaker's
planned October 20 travel to Turkey has been canceled, and
negotiations are expected to resume on October 20 as all
sides push a decision to the last possible moment. END
SUMMARY.

Two Proposals for Kirkuk Voting Rules
--------------


2. (C) Iraqi COR Speaker Ayad Samarra'i told CDA and Pol M/C
October 19 that a tentative agreement among party bloc
leaders on a work-around for the election law on the
contentious issue of Kirkuk had collapsed just hours after it
was reached October 18. According to Samarra'i, two hours
after the key players agreed to the work around, the
Arab/Turkomen representatives in the negotiation withdrew
their agreement. Samarra'i described the breakdown as
regrettable, given that the gap between the two sides had
narrowed significantly over the past few weeks.


3. (C) Samarra'i described two compromise proposals that had
been considered October 18 and would have likely formed the
basis for continuing discussions October 19. The first calls
for establishing a committee to review the voter lists for
Kirkuk province, and possibly other provinces such as Mosul,
where there have been significant population increases in the
past few years that might raise concerns about Iraqis moving
into areas to affect demographic change. Samarra'i said that
the Kurds had indicated tentative acceptance of this
procedure as long as Kirkuk and its voter lists are not
singled out. Unfortunately, he noted, the Arab/Turkomen side
insisted on making specific reference to the need to review
Kirkuk's voter registration, which is a redline for the Kurds.


4. (C) The second compromise proposal, which almost brought
the two sides to agreement, involves establishing a plan to
divide the COR seats allocated to Kirkuk among the province's
three major ethnic groups. Samarra'i could not provide
clarity on the exact formula the two sides were using for
negotiations. (NOTE: This would be 12-14 seats total,
depending on population increases there and similar
demographic shifts elsewhere. The hard-line Arab-Turkomen
position calls for equal COR seats for the three groups,
which would be divided on the basis of a 4-4-4 formula,
according to UNAMI contacts. The Kurds generally insist on a
weighted formula allotting them more seats, based on the
consensus view that the Kurdish population has increased much
faster, with Kurds now significantly outnumbering Arabs and
Turkomen. END NOTE.)


5. (C) Samarra'i did not completely dismiss potential
constitutional problems relating to the use of such a formula
but expressed confidence that if all the sides in Kirkuk
agreed to it, and it opened the way for the national
elections, the courts would likely "find a way" to avoid
Qelections, the courts would likely "find a way" to avoid
nullifying the election. In several discussions with POL
M/C, SRSG Ad Melkert has indicated UNAMI's preference for a
pre-determined seat allocation plan as it would allow all
currently registered Kirkuk voters to participate in the
elections. This would advantage the Kurds. He acknowledged,
however, that such a formulation would necessitate specific
mention of Kirkuk and, therefore, be tantamount to official
legislative admission of special status for Kirkuk.


6. (C) PUK MP Friad Rwanduzi told POLOFF that he asked
President Jalal Talabani October 18 to intervene with KRG
President Masoud Barzani to secure a deal on a quota
arrangement for Kirkuk. Reportedly, Talabani demurred and
instead told KRG PM Barham Salih to do it. We understand
that Barzani told Salih that he considered the pre-determined
seat allocation arrangement "unconstitutional" and asked
Salih to find an alternative solution. Kurdish Alliance bloc
leader Fuad Masoum told poloffs later October 18 that Barzani
opposed the seat allocation arrangement and that he and other
Kurdish leaders shared Barzani's view. (COMMENT: The KDP is
extremely sensitive about Article 140 of the constitution,
which buttresses Kurdish claims to Kirkuk; they wish to avoid
any action that could be construed as unconstitutional,
fearing it could also undermine Article 140 and their claim
to Kirkuk and other disputed areas. END COMMENT.)

COR Session Paused, Then Ended
--------------


7. (C) First Deputy Speaker Attiyah opened the October 19
COR session around 12:45 pm, taking the place of Speaker
Samarra'i who was in closed negotiations with party bloc
leaders on the Kirkuk issue. Samarra'i had called a meeting
with Kurdish MP's Fuad Masoum, Khalid Schwany, Friad
Rwanduzi, Saadi Barzinji and members of the Legal Committee.
Poloff observed other party bloc leaders coming and going
from this meeting. Barzani and Salih were in touch by phone
during the day. While poloffs in the COR observed that there
were enough MPs present to constitute a quorum, there was
never a need to convene members for a vote. By 2:30 pm,
Attiyah adjourned the session until 5:00 pm to allow more
time for Sunni Arabs and Kurds to continue the negotiations.
Late in the day, party bloc leaders ended discussions without
a solution, and COR members agreed to reconvene on October

20. In a late afternoon telcon with CDA, the Speaker
reported the day's failed efforts but asserted members will
return on October 20.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) We have been told by COR contacts that party bloc
leaders agreed to proceed on the basis of consensus, making
clear that any attempt to bring issues up for majority vote
before there is consensus will likely be thwarted by the
absence of a quorum. Post believes, therefore, that the COR
leadership and leaders of the major blocs will have to hammer
out an agreed way forward among themselves, which would then
be brought before the COR for a vote.
FORD