IRAQI ELECTION LAW UPDATE OCTOBER 14, 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002767 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV IZ SUBJECT: IRAQI ELECTION LAW UPDATE OCTOBER 14, 2009 REF: A. BAGHDAD 2756 ¶B. BAGHDAD 2766 Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Gary A. Grappo for reason s 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The COR did not address the election law in its session on October 14 (Ref A). Speaker Ayad al-Samarra'i told the Ambassador October 14 that he hopes for a vote on the election law amendments under discussion in the Council of Representatives (COR) as early as October 17 but was not certain whether discussion would begin again on October 15 (Ref B). Other COR contacts indicated it would, however. Samarra'i expressed hope that his proposal for forming a committee to scrub the voter rolls of Kirkuk would short-circuit the bruising debate on Kirkuk and enable a vote to take place. Responding to the Ambassador's concern, Samarra'i reiterated his conviction that any fallout from dismissal of electoral commissioners could be contained. PM Advisor Sadiq Rakabi separately told the A/DCM that he remained concerned about its potentially disruptive effect and obliquely questioned A/DCM whether certain parties were trying to delay the elections. COR members speaking to emboffs continued to criticize IHEC and to demand the removal of a number of its commissioners. END SUMMARY. DEPUTY PM KEEPS HIS COUNSEL -------------- ¶2. (C) Deputy PM Rafi al-Issawi agreed with A/DCM October 14 on the importance of timely passage of an election law and holding elections on time, but faulted the COR for its slow process. DPM Issawi distanced himself from election law machinations, but indicated tacit support for Samarra'i's "Kirkuk Initiative." As to whether the election law will include open or closed lists, Issawi said, "We won't know until voting day." Although parties publicly advocate open lists, he says, in private they want closed lists. PM ADVISOR CONCERNED SOME PARTIES SEEKING DELAY -------------- -- ¶3. (C) PM Advisor Sadiq Rikabi expressed concern to Acting DCM October 14 that the issue of a vote of no confidence in IHEC commissioners had not been contained politically and still had the potential to be disruptive. He concurred with the A/DCM that action on IHEC's management should wait until after the elections. He acknowledged that there were problems with the organization, but noted that "no Iraqi government institution is perfect, not the COR, not the central government, and not IHEC." Rikabi also questioned whether some political parties (besides Da'wa) were telling us privately that they wanted to delay the elections, hinting at his suspicions that this motivation lay behind the IHEC "inquisition" as well as the manipulation of the Kirkuk voter list issue. In his view, the COR was divided on the election law between those seeking a compromise formula on Kirkuk and those seeking to use it and other issues as an excuse to avoid the elections. SEEKING KIRKUK INPUT FROM UNAMI? -------------- ¶4. (C) Fadhila MPs told Poloffs on October 14 that to pass the election law, UNAMI should propose a solution to Kirkuk because Iraqi MPs on their own are unable to find compromise. The Fadhila MPs reiterated their desire to initiate a vote of no confidence to remove two or three IHEC commissioners and claimed that "most blocs" -- including the Kurds -- agreed with this move. (NOTE: Kurdish contacts tell us they oppose removing IHEC commissioners because it could harm IHEC and delay the election. END NOTE.) Fadhila bloc leader Hassan al-Shimmari appeared to believe that a mere simple majority of quorum (at minimum 70 votes) was required to Qmajority of quorum (at minimum 70 votes) was required to remove IHEC commissioners. (NOTE: COR bylaws state the COR requires a much higher threshold of 138 votes, an absolute majority, to remove "ministers" and "heads of independent commissioners." The COR speaker probably will have latitude to use this interpretation if he wished to block a move against IHEC. END NOTE.) MORE CRITICISM OF IHEC -------------- ¶5. (C) The Chairman of the Integrity Committee, Sabah al-Saedi, told Poloffs that some IHEC commissioners have already proved their incompetence and, therefore, their removal would boost the legitimacy of the national election. He suggested that these IHEC commissioners could be replaced by members of Iraq's previous electoral commission. Karim al-Yaqubi, the MP who led interrogation on October 5 of the IHEC chairman, criticized the joint Embassy-MNF-I October 13 press statement on IHEC and the elections as an example of the U.S. undercutting the COR's right to provide oversight. Poloffs stressed that altering IHEC so close to the election would be disruptive and distract attention away from the needed election law. Poloffs highlighted the close role UNAMI plays in providing technical guidance and oversight to IHEC. HILL