PROMINENT SUNNI SHEIKH TO ANNOUNCE COALITION;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002671 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: PROMINENT SUNNI SHEIKH TO ANNOUNCE COALITION; EXPRESSES WILLINGNESS TO JOIN PM MALIKI REF: BAGHDAD 2639 Classified By: A/DCM Gary A. Grappo for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Sheikh Abdallah al-Yawar al-Shammari, acting paramount sheikh of the influential al-Shammari tribe and an architect of the major Arab political party in Ninewa, told the Ambassador's Senior Advisor for Northern Iraq that he will soon announce a cross-sectarian, nationalist coalition comprising, among others, Minister of Interior Bolani (Shi'a) and Anbar-based Sons of Iraq/Sahwa leader Sheikh Ahmed al-Rishawi (Sunni). Abdallah also said his coalition would be willing to enter into an alliance with PM Maliki before the upcoming national election, a step other Sunni political leaders have so far avoided for fear of alienating their core constituencies. Such a coalition would offer a marked contrast to the Shi'a-led Iraqi National Alliance, throwing into stark relief the choice for voters between familiar sectarian politics and a more pluralistic approach. End summary. ¶2. (C) During a recent visit to Ninewa Province, the Ambassador's Senior Advisor for Northern Iraq, Alan Misenheimer, met on September 24 with Sheikh Abdallah al-Yawar al-Shammari, acting paramount sheikh of the influential al-Shammari tribal confederation and an original architect of the Ninewa-based al-Hadba Gathering. Sheikh Abdallah was joined by several of his brothers, including Ninewa First Vice Governor Faisal al-Yawar and Ajeel al-Yawar; U.S. participants were the Senior Advisor, Ninewa PRT Team Leader, Ninewa PRT Governance Chief and Embassy Baghdad Poloff. CROSS-SECTARIAN, TRIBAL COALITION ¶3. (C) Abdallah said he intends to announce in Baghdad in early October a new cross-sectarian, nationalist coalition comprising, among others, Minister of Interior Jawad Bolani (Shi,a) and Anbar-based Sons of Iraq/Sahwa leader Sheikh Ahmed al-Rishawi (aka Abu Risha). (Note: Faisal al-Yawer told Poloff on September 28 that he was in Jordan to meet with Abu Risha, who appeared to be re-considering whether to join Abdallah's coalition. End note.) The coalition includes senior figures from Ninewa, Salah al-Din, al-Tamim (mostly Kirkuk),Diyala, Baghdad, Najaf and Basra provinces; Abdallah claimed the coalition enjoyed considerable tribal support in those areas. (Note: Deputy Prime Minister Rafi al-Issawi told Emboffs in late August that Bolani had assembled a significant group of predominantly Shi'a, but also Sunni, tribal supporters from central and southern Iraq. End note.) WILLING TO JOIN MALIKI BEFORE ELECTION ¶4. (C) Although he told the Senior Advisor he would not announce a coalition with Maliki before he had publicly introduced his own group, Abdallah stressed that his coalition would be willing to enter into an alliance with PM Maliki before the upcoming national election. (Note: As reported reftel, Maliki announced on October 1 his State of Law Alliance (SLA),which featured a smattering of secular Shi'a, women, ethnic minorities and token Sunni sheikhs, but no significant Sunni or Kurdish parties that could lend weight to the claim that it represents a national gathering. End note.) Such a coalition would represent a significant development in Iraq's political landscape. A number of Sunni political leaders, including DPM al-Issawi, the Iraqi National Dialogue Front's (INDF) Saleh al-Mutlaq and Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, have variously indicated a willingness to form a governing coalition with Maliki after the elections; however, they are wary of joining him sooner for fear of undermining their core constituencies. Qfor fear of undermining their core constituencies. NINEWA, KIRKUK GUARANTEES KEY FOR MALIKI MERGER ¶5. (C) Claiming his coalition enjoyed considerable support, Abdallah said if "Maliki joined him", he &guaranteed8 Maliki would be PM again. When pressed on why he had chosen to enter the national election fray, Abdallah said he would be willing to serve in a cabinet position &if asked to do so8. He stressed that Maliki would have to agree to several conditions before the two coalitions could merge, but was reluctant to detail those. His brother, Faisal al-Yawer, later told Poloff they consisted of an agreement on dividing leadership positions and assurances by Maliki regarding "Arab interests" in Ninewa and Kirkuk. ABU RISHA, BOLANI SERIOUS POLITICAL FIGURES ¶6. (C) Characterizing Abu Risha as a serious political figure, Abdallah said if the coalition were successful in elections, Abu Risha would be expected to hold a senior position. Abdallah also spoke highly of Bolani, whom he characterized as &a dark horse8 candidate for PM, but offered that despite enormous potential, Bolani had BAGHDAD 00002671 002 OF 002 underperformed as Minister of Interior. (Comment: This may refer to criticism in the wake of the August 19 Baghdad bombings of Bolani's management of MOI security operations. Alternatively, it could reflect the belief in some quarters that Bolani was not active enough in resisting Maliki's efforts to aggregate security oversight within the PM's office. End comment.) OTHER SUNNI PAIRINGS NOT LIKELY ¶7. (C) Abdallah's brothers, Ajeel al-Yawar and Faisal al-Yawar, have conducted negotiations with potential political partners. Abdallah,s coalition has held discussions with Ninewa Governor Atheel al-Nujaifi and Ninewa-based Council of Representatives member Osama al-Nujaifi about bringing their faction of al-Hadba into Abdallah,s coalition. (Comment: Given prevailing tensions between Abdallah and Atheel,s wings of al-Hadba, this seems unlikely. End comment.) Abdallah's coalition had extensive talks with the Iraqi National List,s Ayad Allawi; however, Allawi insisted on leading the coalition and being the PM candidate, conditions unacceptable to other coalition members. Abdallah's coalition also discussed partnering with the INDF,s Saleh al-Mutlaq, but was wary of his Ba,athist connections and did not reach agreement with him. Serious talks with DPM al-Issawi,s Future Gathering had not yet born fruit, according to Abdallah. Referring to al-Issawi,s decision to leave the Iraqi Islamic Party to form the Future Gathering, Abdallah noted that his coalition would have a hard time trusting a partner who had already abandoned one set of political allies. ¶8. (C) COMMENT: A coalition comprising Abdallah, Bolani and perhaps Abu Risha would represent a significant and potentially competitive aggregation of Sunni and Shi'a tribal support. More intriguing is the possibility that Abdallah and Maliki could form a combined list of the sort that many politicians and Iraqis have claimed to want, but have yet to achieve. Such a coalition would offer a clear alternative to the Shi'a-led Iraqi National Alliance, throwing into stark relief the choice for voters between familiar sectarian politics and a more pluralistic approach. A decision by credible Sunni Arab figures in a DIBs region like Ninewa to participate in national elections and, equally important, to form potentially weighty political alliances is a positive sign, suggesting that some Sunni leaders believe that politics represents a viable means by which to protect their interests. HILL