PRT NINEWA: THE GRAINS OF WRATH: NINEWA,S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002650 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2019 TAGS: EAGR ECON IZ PHUM SUBJECT: PRT NINEWA: THE GRAINS OF WRATH: NINEWA,S UNFORGIVING DROUGHT BAGHDAD 00002650 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: PRT Ninewa Leader W. Patrick Murphy, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) 1.This is a PRT Ninewa cable. 2.(C) SUMMARY: The arrival of sporadic autumn rains in central Ninewa has brought renewed hope to thousands of impoverished farmers, mostly Sunni Arabs feeling marginalized by Kurdish control over water-rich areas within the province. Agricultural production in more remote areas of Iraq's Ninewa Province, formerly known as the breadbasket of the country, has been suffering since 2004, when a severe drought began. With approximately 95 percent of the 1.64 million hectare agricultural land in the province dependent upon rainfall for moisture, the effects of the drought have been catastrophic to many farmers as well as livestock herders, though our contacts tell us the impact varies significantly across the province. Areas that have weathered the drought most effectively are also home to significant Kurdish populations, and their relative fertility promises to make them even more contentious for final status political negotiations. The livelihood of Ninewa's farmers and livestock herders was further impacted by the reduction of GOI agricultural subsidies and financial assistance. PRT Ninewa has introduced programs to ease the impact of the drought on the province's farmers and herdsmen, and has achieved particularly encouraging results with greenhouses and conservation tillage. END SUMMARY. AN INFERTILE CRESCENT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) During a recent ten-day July agricultural assessment of the western districts of Tal Afar, Sinjar and al Ba'aj PRT Ninewa observed the dramatic difference between green, fertile lands north of Jebel Sinjar with large Kurdish populations and the arid Arab-dominated lands in the rest of the province. Before the drought struck Ninewa Province in 2004, the region received an average of 300 millimeters of rainfall annually. More rain falls in the northern third of the province than in areas to the south, and most rainfall occurs between the months of November and March. Since the drought began, average rainfall in Ninewa has dropped nearly 70 percent (to 100 millimeters) for the 2008-2009 growing season. ¶4. (SBU) Ninewa farmers closer to the Tigris River continue to grow a variety of crops and are still able to eke enough irrigation from the river, but those in most of the province who have traditionally grown small cereal grains (wheat and barley) are suffering. Prior to the drought, Ninewa supplied over twenty percent of Iraq's total production of cereal grains. Average annual yields of cereal grains from rain-fed land before the drought ranged between 1,600 ) 2,000 kilograms per donum (a donum is a 2,500 square meter area). Furthermore, the province provided pastureland for some three million sheep before the drought. Farmers in Qara Qosh, Qayyara and Nimrud (southeastern Ninewa) told us recently that annual cereal grain yields on irrigated lands typically range between 150 and 200 kilograms per donum. By contrast, the figure for production on rain-fed lands is currently zero. The current post-drought estimate for the livestock population in Ninewa puts the number of animals at 600,000 head, an 80 percent decline from pre-drought numbers. DOMESTIC AND REGIONAL WATER POLITICS -------------- ¶5. (C) The provincial Director General for Agriculture Jaffar Sedeeq Saeed told us September 27 the effects of yet another year of drought in Ninewa have been exacerbated by reduced flows in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. His comments echo remarks by farmers we talked to recently, who told us the Qremarks by farmers we talked to recently, who told us the reduced flow is due to declining rainfall and water-management policies in Turkey and Syria that have diminished river water flowing from those countries into Iraq. The vast majority of the farmers we are working with in drought-stricken areas are Sunni Arabs, while the province's Kurdish populations are mostly located in central and northern areas less affected by the drought. ¶6. (SBU) PRT Ninewa has been working since 2008 on programs to ease the impact of the drought, such as conservation tillage, greenhouse technology, improved irrigation practices, and training in water management. These initiatives have contributed to an increased awareness of the problems facing farmers and herdsmen, and also have provided assurance that such occupations remain viable, albeit by employing different methods. The key to lasting success in the agricultural sector revolves around being able to change the mindset of traditional farmers accustomed to growing traditional grains. ¶7. (SBU) With the greenhouses, we have experienced considerable success by providing green houses to farmers BAGHDAD 00002650 002.2 OF 002 associations, using a demonstration approach. With a greenhouse, a Ninewa farmer can grow non-traditional crops outside of the normal growing season, with only July and August excluded due to the summer heat. The Ninewa PRT's greenhouse program requires that participants sign an agreement to repay a portion of the profits generated by the greenhouse to the association. The resulting funds are then used to purchase additional green houses for other farmer association members, creating self-sustainability. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) The severity of the drought has widened the gap between Ninewa's fertile lands and those that have become arid desert since the drought began. Our programs appear to be making a small dent in those areas hit hardest, but our observations in some of the most impacted areas, such as Qayyara, illustrate an economic and agricultural divide between Ninewa,s haves and have-nots. Most significantly for Ninewa's political future, most of the more desirable green lands of northern Ninewa are home to majority Kurdish populations and minorities sympathetic to the Kurdish cause, while greater desperation and economic depression are the norm in the central and southern Sunni Arab-dominated areas. HILL