POLLS CLOSE AFTER A PEACEFUL DAY OF VOTING IN IRAQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000261 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2019 TAGS: IZ PGOV PINR PREL SOCI SUBJECT: POLLS CLOSE AFTER A PEACEFUL DAY OF VOTING IN IRAQ REF: BAGHDAD 0260 ¶1. (C) Summary: Iraq remained relatively peaceful as millions of Iraqis went to the polls on January 31 to elect new provincial councils. Polls closed throughout the country at 1800 after eleven hours of voting, with a one-hour extension authorized late in the day. Embassy received isolated reports of violence, intimidation of voters, and fraud. There were a number of reports of voters being turned away because their names did not appear on voter lists, a problem IHEC will have to investigate. Preliminary results are expected by 5 February. Certified results are expected to be announced by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) by 23 February. End summary. Turnout -------------- ¶2. (C) Turnout continued to be heavy in many polling stations throughout the day, prompting the IHEC to extend voting for one hour, until 1800 local. The International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) a USAID contractor acting as technical consultant to the IHEC, estimates turnout to be 55-60 percent nationwide. The United Nations Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI) was reluctant to estimate turnout, pointing out that official numbers are expected from the IHEC on the morning of 1 February. Security -------------- ¶4. (C) The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF),following plans developed in partnership with the Multi-National Force Iraq (MNF-I),provided tight security at all polling sites, and throughout Iraq. Isolated incidents of violence were reported in Salah ad Din, Ninewa, and Diyala (reftel),but they did not appear to reach a level that would impact the outcome of the elections. IHEC staff at polling centers maintained control at the entrance to polling centers. Several observer teams were denied entrance at polling centers as local staff misinterpreted the ban on armed guards entering (Comment: Post feels that these incidents were simple misinterpretations of the regulations as the IHEC had issued specific letters permitting one armed security detail to enter with credentialed international observers. Exclusions did not follow any pattern, and teams were able to move on to a secondary site without hindrance. End comment). PRT Erbil reported that a team claiming to be PUK observers was turned away as they had no credentials. One man was arrested in Najaf for spreading the rumor that Americans were inside polling stations and influencing the vote, and Maysan PRT reported that an IP Lt. Colonel was arrested for allegedly trying to influence voters to choose his candidate wife. ¶5. (C) Diyala PRT reported that many Sunni voters were turned away from polling centers in Baquba and Khalis. It is unclear as to whether these voters were attempting to vote at the designated polling centers for internally displaced persons (IDPs) or at regular polling centers for residents of Diyala. The PRT also reported that at one polling center in Muqdadiya the Iraqi Police were attempting to take ballot boxes away after the polls closed. IHEC regulations state that ballots are to remain at the polling center and be counted there. These reports have been relayed to UNAMI, and the PRT will track IHEC's response. Logistics/Mechanics -------------- ¶6. (C) Glitches in voting procedures that arose earlier appear to have been resolved as the IHEC responded to situations (Reftel). In many governorates, observers heard complaints of significant numbers of individuals being denied entry at the polls. The majority of these refusals were because the intending voter's name did not appear on the Qbecause the intending voter's name did not appear on the register of voters. In Fallujah an observation team met an angry crowd that claimed that "hundreds" of voters had been turned away due to their names not being on the registry list. One polling center in Tikrit turned away 200-250 voters, 30 percent of their potential pool of voters. In Wasit an IHEC staff member complained that the voter list was not accurate and did not include many names, and in Karbala a UNAMI representative reported that as many as 4,000 voters had been turned away. (Comment: It is unclear as to whether these exclusions were part of an orchestrated strategy, poor book keeping by the IHEC, or a lack of participation in the voter registry update exercise carried out in August 2008. The first possibility seems the least likely given the lack of a pattern. End comment). Results -------------- BAGHDAD 00000261 002 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) Vote counting began in each polling center immediately after the polls closed. Domestic election observers and political party agents are credentialed to witness the count. Counting is expected to take hours, after which tally sheets will be transported to the central Governorate Electoral Office (GEO). Once the GEO has 100 percent of the tally sheets for the governorate the sheets will be transported to a tally center located at the IHEC headquarters in Baghdad. Counting of the tally sheets will begin 2 February, and continue around the clock until complete. Preliminary results, which will indicate only a percentage of votes garnered by the top three to four lists in each governorate, will be announced by the IHEC. Certified results are expected by 23 February. The new provincial councils must be seated within 30 days of the certification. UN and IHEC Comments -------------- ¶8. (SBU) SRSG deMistura and IHEC Commissioners held a joint press conference at 2000 local. Both lauded security arrangements, and DeMistura congratulated IHEC for its professional conduct of the elections. Earlier in the day, DeMistura, who visited polling stations in Najaf and Anbar, reportedly commented that "these elections are the most heavily observed in our modern history" given the high number of domestic and international observers. Elsewhere, British Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Prentiss reportedly told the press, "I sense a great deal of enthusiasm and all the arrangements for the day seem to be going very well." Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Given all the moving parts and the variable security environment, the number of problems is not unusual; our initial assessment is that this appears to have been a successful election in terms of its mechanics. Security was particularly good, and we await further word on turnout, which based on our (limited) anecdotal evidence appears to have been respectable in spite of isolated irregularities. Four hundred forty candidates will become members of provincial councils, but 14,000 will have failed. Iraq is hardly a perfect democracy but this election certainly involved lots of competition and voters freely expressing their will. CROCKER