POLLS CLOSE AFTER A PEACEFUL DAY OF VOTING IN IRAQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000261

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2019
TAGS: IZ PGOV PINR PREL SOCI
SUBJECT: POLLS CLOSE AFTER A PEACEFUL DAY OF VOTING IN IRAQ

REF: BAGHDAD 0260


1. (C) Summary: Iraq remained relatively peaceful as
millions of Iraqis went to the polls on January 31 to elect
new provincial councils. Polls closed throughout the country
at 1800 after eleven hours of voting, with a one-hour
extension authorized late in the day. Embassy received
isolated reports of violence, intimidation of voters, and
fraud. There were a number of reports of voters being turned
away because their names did not appear on voter lists, a
problem IHEC will have to investigate. Preliminary results
are expected by 5 February. Certified results are expected
to be announced by the Independent High Electoral Commission
(IHEC) by 23 February. End summary.

Turnout
--------------


2. (C) Turnout continued to be heavy in many polling
stations throughout the day, prompting the IHEC to extend
voting for one hour, until 1800 local. The International
Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) a USAID contractor
acting as technical consultant to the IHEC, estimates turnout
to be 55-60 percent nationwide. The United Nations
Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI) was reluctant to estimate
turnout, pointing out that official numbers are expected from
the IHEC on the morning of 1 February.

Security
--------------


4. (C) The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF),following plans
developed in partnership with the Multi-National Force Iraq
(MNF-I),provided tight security at all polling sites, and
throughout Iraq. Isolated incidents of violence were
reported in Salah ad Din, Ninewa, and Diyala (reftel),but
they did not appear to reach a level that would impact the
outcome of the elections. IHEC staff at polling centers
maintained control at the entrance to polling centers.
Several observer teams were denied entrance at polling
centers as local staff misinterpreted the ban on armed guards
entering (Comment: Post feels that these incidents were
simple misinterpretations of the regulations as the IHEC had
issued specific letters permitting one armed security detail
to enter with credentialed international observers.
Exclusions did not follow any pattern, and teams were able to
move on to a secondary site without hindrance. End comment).
PRT Erbil reported that a team claiming to be PUK observers
was turned away as they had no credentials. One man was
arrested in Najaf for spreading the rumor that Americans were
inside polling stations and influencing the vote, and Maysan
PRT reported that an IP Lt. Colonel was arrested for
allegedly trying to influence voters to choose his candidate
wife.


5. (C) Diyala PRT reported that many Sunni voters were
turned away from polling centers in Baquba and Khalis. It is
unclear as to whether these voters were attempting to vote at
the designated polling centers for internally displaced
persons (IDPs) or at regular polling centers for residents of
Diyala. The PRT also reported that at one polling center in
Muqdadiya the Iraqi Police were attempting to take ballot
boxes away after the polls closed. IHEC regulations state
that ballots are to remain at the polling center and be
counted there. These reports have been relayed to UNAMI, and
the PRT will track IHEC's response.

Logistics/Mechanics
--------------


6. (C) Glitches in voting procedures that arose earlier
appear to have been resolved as the IHEC responded to
situations (Reftel). In many governorates, observers heard
complaints of significant numbers of individuals being denied
entry at the polls. The majority of these refusals were
because the intending voter's name did not appear on the
Qbecause the intending voter's name did not appear on the
register of voters. In Fallujah an observation team met an
angry crowd that claimed that "hundreds" of voters had been
turned away due to their names not being on the registry
list. One polling center in Tikrit turned away 200-250
voters, 30 percent of their potential pool of voters. In
Wasit an IHEC staff member complained that the voter list was
not accurate and did not include many names, and in Karbala a
UNAMI representative reported that as many as 4,000 voters
had been turned away. (Comment: It is unclear as to whether
these exclusions were part of an orchestrated strategy, poor
book keeping by the IHEC, or a lack of participation in the
voter registry update exercise carried out in August 2008.
The first possibility seems the least likely given the lack
of a pattern. End comment).

Results
--------------

BAGHDAD 00000261 002 OF 002




7. (SBU) Vote counting began in each polling center
immediately after the polls closed. Domestic election
observers and political party agents are credentialed to
witness the count. Counting is expected to take hours, after
which tally sheets will be transported to the central
Governorate Electoral Office (GEO). Once the GEO has 100
percent of the tally sheets for the governorate the sheets
will be transported to a tally center located at the IHEC
headquarters in Baghdad. Counting of the tally sheets will
begin 2 February, and continue around the clock until
complete. Preliminary results, which will indicate only a
percentage of votes garnered by the top three to four lists
in each governorate, will be announced by the IHEC.
Certified results are expected by 23 February. The new
provincial councils must be seated within 30 days of the
certification.

UN and IHEC Comments
--------------


8. (SBU) SRSG deMistura and IHEC Commissioners held a joint
press conference at 2000 local. Both lauded security
arrangements, and DeMistura congratulated IHEC for its
professional conduct of the elections. Earlier in the day,
DeMistura, who visited polling stations in Najaf and Anbar,
reportedly commented that "these elections are the most
heavily observed in our modern history" given the high number
of domestic and international observers. Elsewhere, British
Ambassador to Iraq Christopher Prentiss reportedly told the
press, "I sense a great deal of enthusiasm and all the
arrangements for the day seem to be going very well."

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Given all the moving parts and the variable security
environment, the number of problems is not unusual; our
initial assessment is that this appears to have been a
successful election in terms of its mechanics. Security was
particularly good, and we await further word on turnout,
which based on our (limited) anecdotal evidence appears to
have been respectable in spite of isolated irregularities.
Four hundred forty candidates will become members of
provincial councils, but 14,000 will have failed. Iraq is
hardly a perfect democracy but this election certainly
involved lots of competition and voters freely expressing
their will.

CROCKER