MAYSAN ISCI HEAD REVEALS PRE-ELECTION OPTIMISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000253

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IZ IR
SUBJECT: MAYSAN ISCI HEAD REVEALS PRE-ELECTION OPTIMISM

Classified By: Acting Deputy Robert Ford. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) This is a Maysan PRT reporting cable.


2. (C) Summary: In a January 21 meeting with the PRT, ISCI
Deputy Governor Abdul Hussein Abdul Radha expressed optimism
over the provincial election process in and his party's
chances in Maysan. Radha confidently predicted that the
ruling Sadrists' failure to deliver significant progress,
combined with ISCI's proven track record in other
ISCI-controlled provinces, would sway Maysanis to vote ISCI.
Absent any major voting violations, he predicted his party
could win up to half of the 27 Provincial Council seats.
Radha asserted campaign infractions were common, including
vandalism, parties placing posters on government buildings,
and bribery, but was confident that intimidation tactics and
pre/post-election violence were unlikely. The Deputy
Governor also expressed concern that an insufficient number
of voting centers exist to adequately cover all the rural
sub-districts in the province, which would pose difficulties
for many villagers to get to the polls. Asked about the
impact Tribal Support Councils (TSC) would have in Maysan,
Radha responded sharply that TSCs will have no bearing on the
elections. End Summary.

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ISCI Outlook is Positive
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3. (C) During a January 21 meeting with the PRT at FOB Garry
Owen, ISCI-affiliated Deputy Governor Abdul Hussein Abdul
Radha expressed optimism about ISCI's chances in the upcoming
provincial elections in Maysan. (Note: The Deputy Governor
and his fellow ISCI party members are running on the List of
the Independent Martyr of al Mihrab (Prayer) and Force
candidate list (290/C14). ISCI currently holds six of the 41
Maysan Provincial Council (PC) seats. End Note.) He
explained that ISCI was popular in most of the province,
except for the Majar al Kabir district in the center-south
and some sections of Amarah still under heavy Sadrist sway.
Radha predicted ISCI could win half of the 27 PC seats if
there were no major voting violations. He said ISCI's
chances were strong due to ISCI's proven track record in
other ISCI-run provinces coupled with the groundswell of
frustration Maysanis feel towards the ruling Sadrists for the
provincial government's failure to promote economic
development and shield Maysanis from violence.

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ISCI Platform Promotes International Exchange
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4. (C) Radha said ISCI candidates were campaigning on the
platform of improving the Maysani standard of living through
increased educational and international exchange
opportunities. He cited one major difference between ISCI
and other competing parties as ISCI's belief that progress
can be achieved through interaction with outsiders. He said
the other parties ardently disagreed, with their platform
that Iraq would not make progress while the "occupiers" are
here.

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Campaign Infractions Are Common
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5. (C) Radha reported he had heard of numerous campaign
violations, including vandalism, parties placing posters on
government buildings, and bribery. He said he had expressed
his concerns to Maysan Governorate Elections Officer (GEO)
Dr. Jaffar, in addition to warning the GEO that insufficient
polling centers to cover all the sub districts in Maysan
could negatively impact many villagers' ability to vote. He
also accused former Prime Minister Dr. Ja'afari's political
party, The National Reform Trend (153/562),of bribing
Qparty, The National Reform Trend (153/562),of bribing
Maysanis for their support at the polls, stating that he had
not heard of vote-buying from any other parties.

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TSCs Will Not Impact the Elections
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6. (C) Team leader inquired whether Tribal Support Councils
(TSC) would have any impact on the elections. Responding
sharply, Radha stated that TSCs have not made a difference.
"It is a negative thing," Radha said, claiming that Prime
Minister Maliki had made a mistake in creating TSCs.
According to Radha, TSCs hold little power and are not
involved in government or with the Iraqi Security Forces
(ISF). He explained that "educated" tribal members would not
blindly follow their tribal leaders but would vote according
to their consciences. He also noted that many tribal members
were loyal to the clerics and predicted they would pick

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religious leaders over tribal leaders.

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Comment
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7. (C) During previous PRT engagements with Maysan political
leaders, most have been somewhat taciturn in speculating
about election prospects and politics in Maysan. Recent
candid assessments from the Deputy Governor and other
candidates (to be reported septel) open a window into the
murky political landscape in this uniquely Sadrist-controlled
province. Opposition confidence and the Sadrists' quiet
concern about the possibility of a weakened bastion portend
an interesting election in Maysan. End Comment.

CROCKER