MALIKI TO FORM BASRA POST-ELECTION COALITION WITH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000251

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR IZ
SUBJECT: MALIKI TO FORM BASRA POST-ELECTION COALITION WITH
BROADER NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Classified By: Senior Advisor Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Leading provincial contacts told Senior
Advisor Gordon Gray on January 26-27 that Prime Minister (PM)
Maliki's State of Law list will form a post-provincial
election coalition on the Basra Provincial Council (PC),
including Fadhilah, Iraqi National Accord, National Dialogue
Front (NDF),and most likely the leading Sadrist parties.
The alliance was reportedly cemented during Maliki's January
24 Basra visit, following a meeting in the city two days
earlier among the PM's representatives, Sadrist
parliamentarians, and provincial officials. Governor Mohamed
Wa'eli (Fadhilah) and NDF candidate Ayad al-Abdan outlined
slightly different versions of the proposed coalition, while
Governorate Electoral Office (GEO) chief Hassim Jodah
acknowledged that the PM and the Sadrists would form an
alliance on the PC. While contacts could not confirm that
the agreement extends beyond Basra, the reconciliation
activities carried out by the PM's office and Sadrist leaders
strongly suggest, however, that the PM expects the core
alliance (Da'wa-Fadhilah-Sadrists) to be a player on the
provincial level in other areas of the South. Some Basra
contacts believed the nascent, as-of-yet unannounced alliance
would even have implications for the national politics later
this year. The PM's outreach to the Sadrists is also likely
motivated by the PM's need to repair rifts in the Shia camp
in the event he requires Sadrist support at the national
level to survive a no-confidence move against him. End
Summary.

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Alliance: The Governor's Latest Big Idea
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2. (C) Following the recent defeat of the one-province region
formation campaign that he sponsored, outgoing Governor
Wa'eli eagerly announced in his meeting with Gray a new
direction for his Fadhilah party: an alliance in Basra
Province with the Prime Minister's (PM) Da'wa-led State of
Law slate, Ayad Allawi's Iraqi National Accord, the two
Sadrist slates (Free People's Trend and Integrity and
Construction),and the National Iraqi Gathering Project, a
coalition headlined by the Sunni National Dialogue Front.
The alliance, he said, would be made public shortly after the
vote count is announced. If such a coalition were to form,
all indications suggest that it would likely command a
majority on the new 35-seat Provincial Council (PC).
Multiple sources have told the Basra REO that State of Law is
likely to gain 8-12 seats, while consensus holds that all the
others will gain at least one seat and probably more. The
alliance would aim to defeat the ISCI-backed "Martyrs of the
Pulpit" coalition list, whose members (otherwise known as the
House of Five) hold nearly half the seats on the PC presently.


3. (S/NF) Wa'eli said that the basic outline of the unlikely
alliance had been established during the PM's recent visit to
Iran, in which the Governor believes Maliki was able to talk
to Muqtada al-Sadr. (Note: Other reporting indicates that
this meeting did not take place. End Note.) Shortly
afterward, on January 22, a delegation including Sadrists and
representatives of the Prime Minister visited local
provincial leaders. The Sadrists were parliamentarians Falah
Shanshal, Bahaa al-Araji, and Dr. Lek'a Yaseen, and the
Basra-based Aqeel Abd al-Husssein. Dr. Fa'al, an advisor
from the Implementation and Follow-Up Committee for National
Reconciliation (IFCNR),represented the PM's office, along
with an unnamed Iraqi Army official from Baghdad. (Note: We
Qwith an unnamed Iraqi Army official from Baghdad. (Note: We
have also heard that the IFCNR rep was Dr. Abbud al Issawi
vice Dr. Fa'al. End Note). According to Wa'eli, he, along
with the PC Chairman and the Police Chief, agree to approve
the delegation's request to review cases of Sadrists held in
Basra-area prisons. On January 24, the Governor appeared
with the PM on his campaign stop, but did not give a public
endorsement at that time. Nevertheless, Wa'eli said that the
alliance with Fadhilah and the other parties was cemented
during the PM's visit.

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IFCNR-Sadrist Road Show?
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4. (C) While the Governor could not say with certainty that
this alliance had been forged in provinces outside Basra, he
said that the Sadrist delegation was in the process of
visiting other cities with the objective of viewing Sadrist
detainee files. Wa'eli said the delegation had already
visited Karbala and Amarah and began to review cases, and
that it would visit Nasiriyah (Dhi Qar) next. REO staff
confirmed with the composition of the delegation and its
rough visit schedule with Aqil al-Talib al-Furayji, the
spokesman for the Basra PC. The Governor said that no

BAGHDAD 00000251 002 OF 002


decisions have been made yet about Sadrist prisoners in
Basra. Neither he nor Aqil suggested that IFCNR was trying
to negotiate on behalf of the PM for purposes of establishing
a political alliance, but it was made clear that the visit
was an essential precursor to reaching an agreement.

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Partial Confirmation
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5. (C) GEO Director Jodah was less forthcoming that than the
talkative Governor, but he also said that he had heard that
Da'wa and the Sadrists would form a post-election coalition.
He acknowledged that these parties were strange bedfellows,
given last spring's Charge of the Knights Operation against
Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM). Jodah made a point, however, to
distinguish the two OMS-backed election lists, which he
viewed positively, from the Sadr al-Iraq list, which he
referred to as a haven for JAM members. He singled out the
Sadrist Free Peoples' Trend list for particular praise,
saying that it contained many respected engineers, managers,
and teachers. The GEO Director suggested that these Sadrists
would not have difficulty working with likeminded technocrats
on the PM's slate.


6. (C) Abdan, the leading candidate on National Dialogue
Front's (NDF) coalition list, confirmed after some prodding
that his party had reached an agreement to align with State
of Law (Da'wa),Fadhilah, and Iraqi National Accord. He also
said that the alliance would likely be announced sometime
shortly after election results are released. Abdan evaded
questions about a possible local Da'wa-Sadrist alliance
(which NDF would be a part of) and seemed to be uncomfortable
with the topic - though he emphasized that he did not
discount the possibility. Abdan, while taking a few jabs at
the PM (like any good NDF member),strongly praised Maliki
for his nationalist tendencies. He described the leading
State of Law candidate in Basra, Dr. Shiltaq Abud, as a
"secular candidate" and predicted that both Da'wa and
Fadhilah would change their names within the next few years
to reflect the parties' more nationalist and less religious
orientation. He praised the candidates of all the
prospective coalition for their anti-ISCI and anti-Iranian
stances.


7. (C) In a separate meeting, Sheikh Amir al-Fayez, leading
candidate of the Unity and Justice Gathering, admitted that
his party is concerned about a Da'wa-Sadrist alliance, saying
"everyone is talking about this now." Fayez, a member of the
Law Support Committee, is well respected by a range of Basra
leaders, but also has long-standing ISCI ties, which may have
precluded his party from being a candidate for a Da'wa-led
coalition. Local consensus holds that Unity and Justice will
also win at least two seats on the PC.

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Comment: National Implications?
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8. (C) It remains to be seen if the proposed coalition
described by the Governor and others crystallizes; after all,
Wa'eli has given us wrong analysis before. The alliance, if
it happens, would likely have significant implications both
at the provincial and national level. The unusual grouping
including Da'wa, OMS-backed Sadrists, and the Sunni National
Dialogue Front may not be replicable everywhere in which
these three are present, especially Baghdad and Diyala. The
reconciliation activities carried out by the PM's office and
Sadrist leaders strongly suggest, however, that the PM
expects the core alliance (Da'wa-Fadhilah-Sadrists) to be a
player on the provincial level in other areas of the South.
Both Wa'eli and Abdan view the PM's efforts to form
QBoth Wa'eli and Abdan view the PM's efforts to form
coalitions at the provincial level as a precursor of
alliances that will be set at the national level - an
assertion that seems likely. The PM's outreach to the
Sadrists is also likely motivated by the PM's need to repair
this rift in the event he requires Sadrist support at the
national level to survive a no-confidence move against him,
rumored to be in the works following the provincial
elections. Wa'eli cautioned however, that Maliki's effort to
exclude ISCI/Badr from alliances at the provincial level does
not preclude them from bringing ISCI back into a
reconstituted Shi'a alliance before the national elections.
Even so, if Dawa comes out on top in the provincial councils
of Shia Iraq, it would dramatically change power relations
among the Shi'a parties. Such a result would allow Maliki to
dictate the terms of the national Da'wa-ISCI partnership to a
great degree. End Comment.

CROCKER