MAYSAN DAWA DEPUTY PC CHAIR CONCERNED ABOUT VOTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000250 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IR IZ SUBJECT: MAYSAN DAWA DEPUTY PC CHAIR CONCERNED ABOUT VOTER FRAUD REF: BAGHDAD 212 Classified By: PRT Team Leader Dan Foote for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (U) This is a Maysan PRT reporting cable. ¶2. (C) Summary: Deputy Provincial Council (PC) Chairman and Da'wa provincial party head Latif Abud Kaseem expressed concerns about pre-election security and the potential for voter fraud committed by voting centers staff on election day in a meeting with the PRT. He asserted that campaign violations were common throughout the province. Latif estimated that 50 percent of eligible voters would go to the polls and anticipated strong support for Da'wa in the districts of Ali al Gharbi in the north and Qalat Salih in the south. Latif complained about IHEC's failure to vet all candidates for their educational credentials. Latif defended Prime Minister Maliki for establishing Tribal Support Councils (TSC) and refuted allegations that the Prime Minister was using TSCs to bolster Da'wa support through patronage to tribal leaders. Prime Minister Maliki held a large campaign rally in Maysan's capital, Amara earlier this week. Although cautiously optimistic about Da'wa's chances in Maysan, Latif was reluctant to make a prediction regarding Da'wa's chances on Election Day. End Summary. -------------- Concern About Security and Voter Fraud -------------- ¶3. (C) During a January 22 meeting with the PRT at FOB Garry Owen, Deputy Provincial Council Chairman and Da'wa provincial party head Latif Abud Kaseem expressed concern about pre-election security and the potential for voter fraud on election day. Latif said there were "security gaps," and that he and other Da'wa representatives had implored closer coordination between the Iraqi Police (IP) and Iraqi Army (IA). ¶4. (C) Expressing faint confidence in polling staff, Latif warned that other political parties would attempt to bribe voting center officials to influence illiterate voters to vote for their candidates. Team leader reminded Latif that there would be domestic NGO and political party observers present to monitor voting centers. Latif admitted that many of the voting safeguard mechanisms the IHEC had implemented would be effective deterrents to reduce fraud. -------------- -------------- Frustration with Slow Education Credentials Vetting -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Latif complained about the slow pace of vetting candidates for their educational credentials, claiming that the Ministry of Education had ample time to complete this task before January 31. He claimed there was widespread fraud involving candidates who had falsified their education credentials. (Comment: IHEC has told the Embassy in Baghdad that IHEC will verify the credentials of winning candidates, and even the Commission on Public Integrity wants to get into this act. See ref. End Comment.) -------------- Da'wa Claims Support in North and South -------------- ¶6. (C) Optimistic about Da'wa's chances, Latif said Da'wa's main areas of support in Maysan were in the Ali al Gharbi area in the north and Qalat Salih in the south. According to Latif, both cities' mayors are avid Da'wa supporters. (Note: The Deputy PC Chair and his fellow Da'wa party members are running on the Coalition Rule of Law candidate list (302/C34). Da'wa currently holds six of the 41 Maysan Provincial Council (PC) seats. End Note.) Latif said his list was running 26 candidates, seven of whom are women. He predicted that Da'wa will do well in the municipal elections Qpredicted that Da'wa will do well in the municipal elections later in the year due to strong support the party has at the municipal level. -------------- Tribal Support Councils Are For All Iraqis -------------- ¶7. (C) Team leader inquired whether Tribal Support Councils (TSC) would have any impact on the elections. Latif responded that Prime Minister Maliki had not established Tribal Support Councils (TSC) to bolster support for Da'wa through patronage to tribal leaders. "Tribal Support Councils are for all Iraqis not just Da'wa," he explained, adding that the Prime Minister had recruited tribal leaders to help counter foreign influences in Iraq. He said that tribal members also belonged to political parties and were BAGHDAD 00000250 002 OF 002 free to pick their candidates. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Like other provinces, discerning a winner in Maysan remains difficult given the shrouded political environment. One pattern that has emerged is a common platform among political entities of no false promises, the promise of reconstruction assistance, development and outside investment, and pledges to address rampant unemployment. The two strongest challengers to the incumbent Sadrist majority, ISCI and Da'wa, appear to be successfully leveraging public disenchantment with the ruling Sadrist provincial government to loosen its grip on power. Prime Minister Maliki, currently making the rounds in the south seeking to bolster support for Da'wa, visited Amarah on January 28, holding a Da'wa rally and meeting with members of the Maysan TSC. End Comment. CROCKER