IMPORTANT SIGNS FROM MARJIYAH AND IRAN ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002496

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: IMPORTANT SIGNS FROM MARJIYAH AND IRAN ON
DIRECTION OF IRAQI ELECTIONS AND POLITICAL SITUATION IN
IRAQ FROM MEETING WITH NAJAF GOVERNOR ZURFI

Classified By: PRT NAJAF TEAM LEADER ANGUS SIMMONS FOR REASONS 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On September 4, 2009, Najaf Governor Adnan
Zurfi met Multi-National Corps-Iraq Commanding General (MNC-I
CG) Jacoby to discuss upcoming elections and security
conditions. Governor Zurfi discussed his concerns related to
the upcoming campaign and elections, especially interference
from Iran and potential for violence. Zurfi also discussed
his province's economic development and need for foreign
investment. End Summary.

Political Situation remains fluid


2. (C) Najaf Governor Adnan Zurfi told MNC-I CG Jacoby on
September 4 that the Iraq government faces several challenges
ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. Zurfi
mentioned that both the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and the
Council of Representatives (CoR) are intentionally not
passing legislation or approving funding to undermine and
weaken the government. Similarly, recent security failures
have also served to weaken PM Maliki's position.


3. (C) Responding to a question about Sadrist's
effectiveness in the Provincial Council (PC),Zurfi said that
the Sadrist's have an "anxious ideology". He said that he
was trying to work with them and that they have matured in
their political skills, but lack a basic policy to work from,
requiring them to seek direction and guidance from Muqtada
Al-Sadr for nearly all decisions.


4. (C) With respect to the Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq (ISCI),Zurfi acknowledged that a real
power struggle is ongoing between Humam Hamoudi, Ammar
al-Hakim (Chairman of ISCI) and Sadir Al Deen Al-Kubanchi
(the main speaker for the Najaf Mosque) and Abdil Abid
Al-Mahdi (Vice President of Iraq). While Ammar may have
nominal power over ISCI as its leader, Zurfi believes that
the real power is derived and decreed directly from Iran.

The Role of the Marjyah in Najaf


5. (C) In recent meetings with Grand Ayatollah Ali
al-Sistani, Sistani said that "he does not want Iranian
influence to increase. We need another face." In fact,
Zurfi indicated that Sistani seemed happy that Maliki did not
join the new coalition. Zurfi stated that "We rely on
Sistani to help keep things stable." However, according to
Zurfi, representatives of the recently announced Iraqi
National Alliance (INA),who he believes really represent the
interests of Iran, have been pressuring Sistani to support
the INA. According to Zurfi, PM Maliki hopes that Sistani
will not succumb to Iran's pressure. PM Maliki needs time to
form a new coalition and find "new faces" to run on his
ticket. In Zurfi's assessment, "the only thing that would
stop Maliki is Sistani."


6. (C) Zurfi told Jacoby that he is working very hard with
the Marjiyah to obtain their blessing for their efforts.
Zurfi also met with Sayed Ayatollah Al-Hakim (cousin of ISCI
Chairman Ammar al-Hakim) who expressed frustration with
Maliki because he believed Maliki's efforts may split the
Shi'a.

Potential for Sectarian Violence is real


7. (C) Zurfi continued saying that the religious leaders are
very worried about the possibility of the Shi'a clerics
issuing a Fatwa with regard to elections (which could lead to
additional sectarian violence). However, he contended that
events today are not like 2004 and that militias do not have
the capability to launch major attacks, but rather have the
capability to conduct targeted IED attacks and
assassinations.

Interference from Iraq's Neighbors


8. (C) In discussing foreign influences in Iraq, Zurfi said
that Iraq is being squeezed on both sides by radical elements
from both Sunni and Shia camps. Zurfi said that his sources
indicate that Iranians may have security elements
infiltrating Iraq. In consultations with Prime Minister
Maliki on September 2, Zurfi reportedly told Maliki that
"ISCI and Sadrists only need a picture of Sulemani in order
to be completely Iranian." (Note: Zurfi is using a
metaphor to refer to the Iranian Intelligence Chief; Sulemani
who Zurfi believes is pulling the strings of the new Shi'a
coalition. End Note.)


9. (C) According to Zurfi, there are approximately ten to
fifteen former security organizations from the old Ba'athist
regime that were pushed out of the administration. These
individuals have become key recruitment targets for Syria and
even Iran. Governor Zurfi speculated that in the run up to
the elections the possibility exists for targeted
assassinations, bomb attacks ) particularly in Baghdad,
Mosul and Diyala. Governor Zurfi said Iranians are
recruiting ex-Intel officers who worked on the Iran desk. He
indicated that SAUDI and Syrians are doing the same thing.
Zurfi recently met with Ali Larijani (Iran's Speaker of
Parliament). He said that Larijiani objects to Iraq
appointing good Iraqi former Intel officers because they have
a poor opinion of Iran. He says that he has heard similar
comments from ISCI and Sadrists. Neverthless, Zurfi
discounted the extent of Iran's influence over Iraqi society.
While certain groups were under Iran's sway, the majority of
Iraqis view Iran negatively due to the role it has played
over the past several years.


10. (C) Zurfi indicated that SAUDI ARABIA will also attempt
to influence the elections through Iraqi tribes and
politically through the Bathists. He suggested the U.S.
should talk to the Saudis to keep them from interfering.
Monies provided directly from Iran and SAUDI ARABIA together
with non-financial assistance from Syria, Jordan and others
are actively trying to control Iraqi elections.

Insufficient Investment in Iraq continues


11. (C) Jacoby asked Zurfi about the general economy. Zurfi
explained that the economy is reasonably stable, but that
there is severe pressure on the provincial budget. As an
example, he cited the fact that the government has not built
one new police station in the province since 2003. Further,
he noted that Najaf has insufficient investment and is keen
to attract US investors. In particular, he is very
interested in attracting more banks to the region. He
divulged that the current airport manager (Al Aqeeq, a
Kuwaiti company) is not performing and may be released from
its contract. He suggested that if the province terminates
the airport manager's contract, he would be very interested
in soliciting an American firm to run the airport. Comment:
Zurfi is meeting today (September 5) with the airport
security contractor Sabre, which is currently owed USD 7
million by Al Aqeeq and is telling Al Aqeeq that it may have
to stop work if it is not paid. End Comment. Also, Zurfi was
critical of MOI for choosing to procure Chinese and
Russian-made products over American. He also asked why US
automotive manufacturers do not have a retail presence here
in Iraq.


12. (C) Comment: Zurfi clearly has the ear of Maliki and key
religious leaders in Najaf. Zurfi asked Jacoby for
additional support for training and intelligence. He asked
the US to extend its strong support for Maliki in the
upcoming elections, as well as in keeping Iraq's neighbors
out of its politics. In Zurfi's words: "It is OUR business,
not just Iraqi business." (emphasis Zurfi's) It is important
for Iraq, and the United States, to preserve the democratic
gains already made. Despite his appeals for help, Zurfi
remained optimistic saying "The elections will provide a
chance to elect good people and give new people an
opportunity to serve their country."

HILL