MINORITY QUOTAS IN NATIONAL ELECTIONS LIKELY, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002491 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2019 TAGS: KIRF PGOV PHUM SOCI IZ SUBJECT: MINORITY QUOTAS IN NATIONAL ELECTIONS LIKELY, BUT ARE THEY BENEFICIAL? REF: A. BAGHDAD 1785 ¶B. BAGHDAD 2277 Classified By: Political Counselor Yuri Kim for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) . ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Minority political leaders tell us that it is increasingly likely that the forthcoming national election law will include reserved seats for Iraq's minority communities. Such a move would continue the trend of providing for minority representation that began in the Provincial Council (PC) elections in January 2009 and continued in the KRG election in July. Nevertheless, there is debate within the minority community as to whether minority politicians elected as part of a quota system will be able to effectively represent their respective communities. The two minority quota members currently serving on the Baghdad PC tell us that they have succeeded in delivering tangible results to their communities based on the political connections they have made after being elected. END SUMMARY. -------------- National Election Law to Include Quotas? -------------- ¶2. (C) As the Iraqi Parliament begins discussions on a national elections law, there appears to be growing consensus that the law will include reserved seats for Iraq's minority communities. On September 8, Minister of Industry Fawzi Hariri, himself a Christian, told the DCM that the national elections law will likely include five seats nationwide for Christians. This was seconded in a separate meeting with Poloff on September 9 by Christian MP Yonadam Kanna who speculated that the Sabean-Mandean community was likely to receive one seat as well. Subsequent press accounts reported that quotas were included in the draft elections law approved by the Iraqi cabinet and that at least one seat was to be reserved for Iraq's Yezidi community. (NOTE: We have not seen the draft version that came from the cabinet. END NOTE.) If the national elections were to include minority quotas, it would be the third time in a year that an Iraqi election included minority quotas. In the January 2009 Provincial Council elections, six seats were reserved for minorities -- three in Ninevah (Christian, Shabak, Yezidi), two in Baghdad (Christian and Sabean-Mandean, and one in Basra (Christian); eleven seats were reserved in the KRG parliamentary elections in July -- five Christian, five Turkmen, one Armenian. �0A;¶3. (C) Nevertheless, there is still considerable debate within the minority community as to whether quotas allow these communities to maximize their political voice. For example, the Prime Minister's advisor for Christian Affairs, Georges Bakoos believed that if Christians were to run as one list, they could net as many as eight seats (ref A). Other prominent Christian leaders, including non-Muslim Endowment Director Abdullah al-Naufali and Baghdad PC representative Gorguis Barwary, argue that the Christian community should receive anywhere from six to 15 seats based on estimates that the Christian population constitutes 2-5% of all Iraqis. After the KRG elections, the two current Christian MPs Kanna and Ablahad Sawa expressed frustration with quotas, accusing the KDP of manipulating the voting to install candidates for minority seats loyal to the KDP rather than to the minority communities (ref B). On September 8, Shabak MP Hunein al-Qaddo told POLOFF that he fears the Kurds would do the same if the Shabaks were to receive reserved seats in the national elections. -------------- Baghdad PC Shows Benefits of Minority Quotas -------------- Q -------------- ¶4. (C) POLOFF met separately with the two minority representatives on the Baghdad PC -- Gorguis Barwary (Christian) and Ali Zahroon (Sabean-Mandean) -- to gauge their experiences. Despite being in the extreme minority on the 57-member council, both Barwary and Zahroon were adamant that they were able to deliver results for their communities. Barwary noted he had helped the Roman Orthodox Church obtain a land title so that it could construct a school. He also noted his efforts with the Baghdad Reconstruction Committee to rehabilitate a Christian cemetery and claimed credit for helping to push the MOI to hire additional guards after the bombings of Christian churches on July 12. Zahroon pointed to his accomplishments in getting the Governor of Baghdad to repair a Sabean-Mandean cemetery that had been destroyed in 2003 and in helping to furnish a new school were Sabean-Mandean children can go once a week for language and religious instruction. BAGHDAD 00002491 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Both Barwary and Zahroon emphasized that they had good relations with all of the political factions represented on the Baghdad PC and had their respect. Zahroon boasted that he could "control" all 57 PC members because they needed him for his expertise in finance, economics, and contracting which they were lacking. As evidence, he pointed to the fact that he had been named Chairman of the powerful Finance Committee. (Barwary was appointed Deputy Chairman of the Education Committee.) Barwary and Zahroon also attributed their success on the PC to their perceived independence from the Sunni-Shia and intra-Shia political divides, which allowed them to be honest brokers and to bridge sectarian differences on the PC. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: There is still a long road ahead before Iraq's national elections law is finalized, but it is encouraging that the representation of minority communities appears to be a priority for the GOI. Whether quotas make it into the final bill remains to be seen, but the precedent established in the January provincial elections and July KRG elections will make it difficult to reverse course. Debates will continue on whether quotas allow minority communities to maximize their political representation, but the example of the Baghdad PC suggests that small political representation can result in big dividends. END COMMENT. HILL