CONVERSATION WITH KDP REPRESENTATIVE ROWSCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002459

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2024
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: CONVERSATION WITH KDP REPRESENTATIVE ROWSCH
SHAWAYS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Gary A. Grappo for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. On September 7, former Deputy Prime
Minister Rowsch Shaways arrived in Baghdad to represent the
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) at UNAMI's September 8
High Level Task Force (HLTF) meeting. Shaways has not been a
regular fixture in Baghdad politics for over 9 months. As
KRG President Masoud Barzani's most senior and trusted
advisor, Shaways has the authority to represent Barzani's
interests and speak on his behalf. Shaways pledged to attend
weekly HLTF meetings in Baghdad but does not believe that the
GOI is taking the process seriously. Regarding the disputed
area of Kirkuk, Shaways insisted that Article 140 process
continue and that agreement on a hydrocarbons revenue sharing
law will ameliorate Arab-Kurd tensions. With the upcoming
national elections, Shaways predicts that PM Maliki will need
the Kurds to survive but warns that he will renege on
whatever deal he makes. Shaways asks that the U.S. play a
more active role in Arab-Kurd issues, recognizing that U.S.
influence will diminish as the U.S. military withdraws. END
SUMMARY.

KURDS ARE READY TO DEFINE A BORDER
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2. (C) Shaways described the UNAMI process like a "diet
drink." He agreed with UNAMI to negotiate with the GOI on
what he considers the "small stuff" - the Confidence Building
Measures of each DIBs report. However, he asserted that the
Kurds did their due diligence and studied each report
thoroughly. He is ready to discuss defining the "border."
Shaways said he still believes that GOI is not serious about
process and that GOI presentative Sadiq Rikabi who is lazy in
his approach, appears to be stalling. Shaways said that it
will take many meetings per each report. He confessed that
his second on the Kurdish side Khalid Schwany has not made an
appearance. He added that there was no sign of Rikabi's #2.

KIRKUK - ARTICLE 140 OR BUST
--------------


3. (C) When asked about the possibility of negotiating a
solution on Kirkuk, Shaways believes that an agreement on
hydrocarbons revenue sharing will simplify a resolution on
Kirkuk. He attested that hydrocarbons agreement can be
achieved with the U.S., KRG and PM Maliki in the room. He
insisted that, "No matter what, Article 140 process must
continue." He acknowledged the 'sluggishness' of the claims
process and welcomed any assistance from the U.S. to speed up
the normalization processes. Shaways does not believe in
brokering a power-sharing agreement for the Provincial
Council. Rather, he wants a provincial election vote to
determine power-sharing. He said that he does not believe
that the Kurds would overwhelm a provincial election because
he claims that there isn't an overwhelming majority of Kurds
in Kirkuk. Personally, he prefers a confirmatory referendum
on a negotiated settlement vice an up-down referendum on
Kirkuk. He has recognized that the U.S. wants a more active
role in resolving Kirkuk, but it should not disrupt or
undermine the UNAMI process that is finally underway. He
opts for a parallel discussion on Kirkuk while UNAMI DIBs and
Article 140 processes continue.

STATUS OF KRG
--------------


4. (C) In the wake of the Iraqi Kurdistan Parliamentary
elections, Shaways does not deny that President Talabani's
presence in Baghdad weakened the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) in Sulemaniyah and strengthened KDP in the KRG. It
Q(PUK) in Sulemaniyah and strengthened KDP in the KRG. It
also allowed for Goran List to perform well. He is dismayed
that KRG PM Nechirvan Barzani will not remain PM, reasoning
that PUK lost its support in Sulemaniyah to Nawshirwan
Mustafa and the Change List. "Talabani and Barham have a lot
to prove." Shaways insisted that Nechirvan will be heavily
involved in KDP politics and may still have an official role
in KRG. Shaways accused Nawshirwan Mustafa of being only
interested in consolidating power away from Talabani in
Sulemaniyah.


5. (C) He said it was important to replace Barham Salih's
DPM spot even for the remaining four months. He anticipates
a long delay in government formation and the Kurds will need
an able person in the position. He confirmed that he has
turned down the interim position. He cited that Nechirvan
wanted to come to Baghdad as DPM but his lack of Arabic was
the deciding factor. He added that neither Water Minister
Latif Rashid, Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, or former KRG
Speaker Adnan Mufti are slated for the DPM role.

BAGHDAD 00002459 002 OF 002



NATIONAL ELECTIONS - DANGEROUS GAMES
--------------


6. (C) In the run-up to the national elections, Shaways
stated that Goran List Leader Nawshirwan Mustafa does not
understand national issues and plans to jump into the game
blind. He added that KDP-PUK still hopes to persuade
Nawshirwan to form a united front at the national level to
once again make them a powerful parliamentary bloc to be
reckoned with. Shaways warned if Nawshirwan aligns with
Maliki, he will alienate himself from the Kurdish people.
Shaways stated that the Kurds will retain Iraqi Presidency
and Foreign Ministry. "A Presidency without veto is not more
than a figurehead, but we are still willing to insist that it
go to Talabani." In holding on to two of Iraq most external
positions, he expects the Kurds to lose some ministries.


7. (C) Shaways opined that Maliki's exclusion from the Iraqi
National Alliance (INA) means that Maliki will need the
Kurds. "He has to decide whether he will buy our support on
KRG-GOI issues before the elections or just wait until
after." Shaways smiled and said, "If he waits until after we
know he will renege on all promises." He added that Maliki's
exclusion from the INA will also force him to combine with a
rag tag set of Sunni groups, pushing all his Baathist
paranoia buttons. Shaways said that VP Adil Abd al-Mehdi is
the best PM candidate out there.
FORD