ANBAR CANDIDATES CONFIDENT FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000245

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ANBAR CANDIDATES CONFIDENT FOR PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS

Classified By: Classified by A/DCM Robert Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a series of recent discussions in the
week before Provincial Council (PC) elections, Anbari
candidates and the Governorate Elections Officer (GEO)
expressed enthusiasm and confidence that the elections will
be a strong step forward for Anbar. Candidates predicted the
number of seats their parties would win, and uniformly
criticized the large number of political entities running.
The GEO was confident that final preparations for the
elections were in order. One party noted that Anbari Imams
had encouraged Muslims to vote wisely. This same party
thought that the results of the provincial elections would
influence Iraq's National Parliamentary elections. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) POLOFF met separately with Anbar GEO Khalid Rajab
and several candidates running in the Anbar provincial
elections in Ramadi and Baghdad January 18, and January
24-26. Sheikh Hamid Al Heiss (Al Anbar Salvation Council
party, Iraqi Tribal Front coalition),traveled to Baghdad to
speak with us. Sheikh Daher Hameed Awad Sulayman (Conference
of the Awakening of Iraq party (MSI, the "Sahwa"),Anbar
coalition),Khamis Abtan (Deputy Anbar PC Chair, representing
Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP),running with Coalition of
Intellectuals and Tribes for Development (CITD),Dr. Jassim
Al Halboosi, (National Dialogue Front party, Iraqi National
Project Alliance coalition),Mohammed Fatha and Nehal Ahmad
Salih (National Movement for Reform and Development party
(NMRD),no coalition),Hajji Hamid Al Uwaid (independent
candidate) all traveled to Camp Ramadi. Poloffs met Khalid
in his office in downtown Ramadi.


3. (U) The candidates and the GEO felt confident about the
elections, and all agreed that the election offered an
opportunity to advance the reconstruction of Anbar and Iraq
as a whole. Despite concerns about some irregularities, all
looked forward to the elections as a successful demonstration
of Iraq's increasing sovereignty and commitment to democracy.
(NOTE: A separate cable details the candidates' concerns
about potential election irregularities. END NOTE).

--------------
TOO MANY CANDIDATES, UNEDUCATED VOTERS
--------------

4. (C) Mohammed Fatha and Nehal Ahmad Salih (NMRD) thought
that the Anbar elections were complicated by too many
political entities (39) and candidates (543). Sheikh Daher
(MSI) echoed this sentiment, and noted that Anbaris do not
have the sophistication to select the best qualified
candidates. Mohammed Fatha, Sheikh Hadi, Hajji Al Uwaid, and
Sheikh Hamid (Al Anbar Salvation) expected many to vote for
tribal candidates based on tribal affiliation.

--------------
PREDICTIONS
--------------


5. (C) Khamis Abtan (IIP),Dr. Jassim (Dialogue),and Sheikh
Daher (MSI) all claimed that their parties would win "a
majority" of seats in the new 29 seat council. Sheikh Hamid
(Al Anbar Salvation) looked forward to winning six to
seven seats.


6. (C) Mohammed Fatha and Nehal Ahmad Salih (NMRD) expected
the party would win three to four seats. Mohammed predicted
his party would have the fourth largest representation in the
new PC, behind MSI, IIP, and the Dialogue parties. They both
felt increasingly confident in their prospects for the
elections, as they claimed that representatives of the
CITD/IIP and the United National Movement lists had
separately approached Mohammed January 21-22 to create a new
alliance. NMRD declined to pursue these alliances.


7. (C) Hajji Hamid al-Uwaid is running as an individual
Q7. (C) Hajji Hamid al-Uwaid is running as an individual
candidate, without any party or coalition affiliation. He
was not confident that he would win a seat in the council,
but claimed to have 7,000-8,000 strong votes. He stated
that he ran independently of other parties, giving up the
opportunity for greater financial and campaign support, since
he was afraid that his core supporters (primarily young
people, he maintains) would abandon him. According to
al-Uwaid, Anbaris think the parties are only out for their
own interests. His comments throughout the discussion were
vague and coarse, suggesting that his campaign is rather
unsophisticated.

--------------
CLERICS
--------------


8. (SBU) Mohammed (NMRD) reported that Imams and several

BAGHDAD 00000245 002 OF 002


mosques had encouraged Anbaris not only to vote in the
provincial elections, but to consider it "a duty to vote for
the genuinely good candidates." He had no indication that
Imams were endorsing specific candidates, but did hear that
in a remote northern village of Anbar (unnamed) an Imam had
told his faithful not to vote for NMRD.

-------------- --------------
IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Mohammed (NMRD) thought that the situation of the
current national Iraqi Council of Representatives is a
tragedy. According to Nehal, radical religious parties had
reduced Iraq to its current weakness. Both thought that PC
elections will mark a reconfiguration in the entire political
map for all of Iraq. They declared that the current parties
on the national scene would disappear, to be replaced by new
parties (such as NMRD) with Iraq's best interests at heart.

--------------
GEO PREPARATIONS
--------------


10. (C) Anbar GEO Khalid reported that final preparations
for the elections were close to being finalized, from
delivery of ballots to preparations for limited sanctioned
vehicle movement on election day for internally displaced
persons and the elderly and infirm. He looked forward to
successful voting on January 28 for special needs voters
(Iraqi Army and police, hospitalized voters, and prisoners),
and general voting on January 31.

CROCKER