DEATH OF SHIA LEADER ABD AL-AZIZ AL-HAKIM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002302

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: DEATH OF SHIA LEADER ABD AL-AZIZ AL-HAKIM

REF: BAGHDAD 000380

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Gray A. Grappo for reasons
1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Shia political world marked a major
milestone with the death today of Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, the
chairman of the influential Shia party the Islamic Supreme
Council of Iraq (ISCI). Hakim's death could herald a
generational shift within ISCI and the Hakim dynasty that
could bring to the surface competing visions among the
leadership for ISCI's future. Abd al-Aziz's 37-year-old son,
Ammar, is the likely successor, but he may find his
authorities constrained by the party's old guard. Hakim's
chief of staff, Haitham al-Husseini, told POLOFF that a
delegation will retrieve Hakim's remains and bring it to Iraq
for burial; mourning ceremonies will be held in Baghdad and
the Shia holy city of Najaf. Post is developing plans for the
Ambassador intends to extend condolences in ceremonies in
Baghdad or Najaf. END SUMMARY.

Death of Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim in Tehran
--------------


2. (U) Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, born 1950 in Najaf, Iraq, was
the youngest child of the prominent Iraqi cleric Grand
Ayatollah Muhsin al-Hakim. He was also the brother of
Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim, founder of ISCI and close U.S.
partner against Saddam Hussein; Mahammad Baqir was murdered
in Najaf in 2003. Since being diagnosed with lung cancer in
May 2007, Abd al-Aziz had groomed his eldest son, Ammar (born
1971),as his successor. In the Iraqi press today, Sunni and
Shia figures offered condolences and praise; many emphasized
that ISCI has faith in Ammar's leadership.

Hakim's Legacy: Integration into the New Iraq...
-------------- --------------


3. (C) After the fall of Saddam Hussein, Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim
led the transformation of the well-disciplined, well-funded,
and Iranian-origin Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in
Iraq (SCIRI) and its associated militia, the Badr Corps, into
Iraqi political parties. This process led to a partnership
with the United States and other entities to build the new
Iraqi state. Before 2003, SCIRI and Badr fought the Ba'th
regime from Iran, often through violence and subterfuge.
Between 2003 and 2005, Abd al-Aziz encouraged SCIRI to
participate in writing the Iraqi Constitution and Badr to
fold itself into the New Iraqi Army. (Note: In contrast,
Muqtada al-Sadr's Jaysh al-Mahdi initiated an open revolt
against Coalition Forces and the Iraqi government. End Note.)


4. (C) As the Maliki government took shape in early 2006, Abd
al-Aziz was selected as the Council of Representative (COR)
bloc leader for the Unified Iraqi Alliance (UIA),the
umbrella Shia party that captured the most seats in the COR.
In December 2006, President Bush received Abd al-Aziz at the
White House. In 2007, SCIRI removed the word "revolutionary"
from its name to signify its acceptance of Iraq's new order.
Badr Corps -- no longer wishing to emphasize its militancy --
largely integrated itself into the Iraqi security forces
through Coalition Provincial Authority Order 91, and became a
political party, the Badr Organization. ISCI switched its
official religious object of emulation from Iranian Supreme
Leader Ali al-Khamenei to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the
most popular cleric among Iraqi Shia today.


5. (C) During the January 2009 provincial elections, Hakim's
ISCI performed worse than expected, losing its dominance in
provincial governments in southern Iraq. With minor protest,
Abd al-Aziz and others in ISCI accepted the results and
facilitated the peaceful transfer of power in the provinces
Qfacilitated the peaceful transfer of power in the provinces
to a coalition led by PM Maliki. However, in his last
meeting with a U.S. official, Abd al-Aziz complained bitterly
that a U.S.-funded television station unfairly attacked ISCI
during the campaign (ref A).

...But Linked with Iran
--------------


6. (C) Despite attempts to alter his image, Hakim never shed
criticism that he was influenced by (or a pawn of) Tehran, a
liability among Iraq's Sunnis and an increasingly
nationalistic Shia electorate. His death in Iran will
reinforce this image. Many of our contacts still offer vague
complaints that, through ISCI and Badr, Iran has fingers in
Iraq's ministries and security forces. For example, Hakim's
call for a nine-province southern region to consolidate Shia
local authority was seen by his detractors as an Iranian plot
to cleave Iraq. Hakim rarely criticized Tehran's Iraq policy
and would brush aside our private inquires about Iranian
lethal aid to militants in Iraq.

BAGHDAD 00002302 002 OF 002



ISCI's Likely Leadership Outcome
--------------


7. (C) The most likely near-term successor to Abd al-Aziz is
his son Ammar, ISCI's current deputy since 2007 and an
Embassy contact. Ammar has often called for closer U.S.-Iraq
ties, especially cultural and economic ties as envisioned in
the Strategic Framework Agreement (SFA),and has expressed
unease over a perceived shifting of U.S. attention away from
Iraq. Ammar makes frequent television appearances and has
become more assertive during meetings. However, Ammar was
only 11 years old when ISCI was founded, and some ISCI
members from Abd al-Aziz's generation will chafe at following
the young and more secular Ammar. During the January 2009
provincial elections, ISCI decided to run under the title
"Shahid al-Mirhab" (Martyrs of the Pulpit),the name of the
social and education organization run by Ammar. Shahid
al-Mirhab's weaker than expected showing probably has led
some to question whether ISCI can regain its political
position under Ammar.


8. (C) The most likely outcome for ISCI's near-term
leadership is a gradual diminution of the authority of ISCI
chairman. The initial outpouring of goodwill toward Ammar in
the wake of his father's death might be followed by the
strong personalities within ISCI using public sermons or
statements to recalibrate the party's message. Cleric Jalal
al-Din al-Saghir, Badr leader Hadi al-Amiri, Humam al-Hamoudi
and Shaykh Taqi al-Mawla all are likely competitors for
leadership. Former ISCI member Muhammad al-Haidari, preacher
at the Khilani mosque in Baghdad and brother of the head of
the Shia Endowment, might now look past his rivalry with the
Hakims and seek to re-enter ISCI. Vice President Adil Abd
al-Mahdi will probably use his close friendship with Ammar to
remain an influential strategic guide for ISCI. As one of
his last moves, Abd al-Aziz appointed Hamoudi in mid-May to
lead ISCI's efforts to negotiate the UIA's revival, an
acknowledgement that Hamoudi and the old guard might yet be
better able than Ammar to face down ISCI's Shia rivals.

Embassy Response to Hakim's Death
--------------


9. (C) Hakim's funeral ceremonies will likely occur over the
next three days in Najaf. Given Hakim's stature within the
Shia community and in Iraq in general, the Ambassador will
attend condolence ceremonies in Baghdad or Najaf. In the
coming weeks, we will initiate meetings with Ammar al-Hakim
and other ISCI officials to personally express our
condolences and inquire about ISCI's future.
FORD