IRAQI CABINET SUBMITS DRAFT LAW FOR REFERENDUM ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002244 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: IRAQI CABINET SUBMITS DRAFT LAW FOR REFERENDUM ON U.S.-IRAQ SECURITY AGREEMENT REF: A. BAGHDAD 1520 ¶B. BAGHDAD 1498 Classified By: POL M/C Gary A. Grappo for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: According to an August 17 press release, the Iraqi Council of Ministers has approved a draft law for holding a public referendum on the U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement (SA) in conjunction with parliamentary elections in January 2010. The move is consistent with the Cabinet's announcement in June that the referendum should be held concurrent with national elections, rather than by July 30 as required by the 2008 law ratifying the SA, in order to "save money and time." Any referendum bill will have to undergo a potentially lengthy procedural process before it reaches the floor of parliament. While PM Maliki and most political leaders do not support a referendum, they cannot afford to be seen blocking or opposing it as the electoral campaign season begins in earnest. On the USG end, we should continue to state that we are fully committed to the SA and all its terms, and simply note that the holding of a referendum is an internal Iraqi matter. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. ¶2. (U) On August 17, GOI Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh announced that the Iraqi Council of Ministers had approved a draft law for conducting a public referendum on the U.S.-Iraq Security Agreement (SA). According to Dabbagh's press release, the draft law is "necessary to implement" the 2008 law ratifying the SA and would be referred by the Cabinet to the Iraqi parliament for further action. (Note: The official title of the SA in both Arabic and English is: "Agreement Between the United States of America and the Republic of Iraq on the Withdrawal of the United States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of their Activities during their Temporary Presence in Iraq." The law parliament adopted in 2008 approving the SA required that the agreement be put to a public referendum by July 30, 2009. End Note.) Dabbagh also stated that the referendum, as envisioned by the GOI, would coincide with national parliamentary elections, currently scheduled for January 16, 2010; voters would be asked whether they agreed with the SA by answering a simple "yes or no" question. He confirmed that a simple majority of votes would be required to pass the referendum, and that the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) would be responsible for administering the referendum proceedings. ¶3. (C) While the timing of yesterday's announcement may have been unexpected, it was nevertheless consistent with the Cabinet's past actions and statements regarding the referendum. Under fire from the Sadrists, some Sunni nationalists and other interests to hold the referendum by July 30 as required by the 2008 SA ratification law, PM Maliki and his ministers successfully postponed this deadline by effectively promising to link the referendum to the January national elections. On June 9, Dabbagh announced that the Council of Ministers "wishes to organize a referendum (on the SA) on the same day as parliamentary elections to save money and time" (ref A). Embassy contacts report that the Council of Ministers quietly sent a draft referendum law on June 14 to the government Shura Council for review, but the bill went nowhere, perhaps intentionally as the Shura apparently took no meaningful action. ¶4. (C) According to our sources, IHEC recently sent the Council of Ministers a memorandum stating that if the GOI wanted to hold a referendum on the SA on January 16, it had Qwanted to hold a referendum on the SA on January 16, it had to give IHEC sufficient lead time and funds to organize the voting. (Note: IHEC previously asked parliament for a draft law on the referendum and corresponding budget. End Note.) On August 11, possibly motivated by the IHEC memo, Dabbagh issued a press release stating that the Cabinet had "suggested a draft law on holding a public referendum" on the SA for referral to the parliament. Our contacts tell us the Cabinet sent an "amended" SA referendum to the Shura Council on August 16. (Note: Post will attempt to obtain a copy of this draft law. End Note.) ¶5. (C) Under the Iraqi constitution and applicable laws, after draft legislation originating in the Cabinet is reviewed by the Shura Council, it is sent back to the Council of Ministers, which then decides whether to submit it to the parliament's Presidency Council (consisting of the Speaker, First Deputy Speaker and Second Deputy Speaker) through the Minister of State for Council of Representative Affairs. The Presidency Council should then forward the draft law to the Committee on Legal Affairs, and other relevant parliamentary committee, for study and consultations. The Legal Committee will eventually recommend to the Presidency Council whether a first (followed by a second and third) reading of the bill should be scheduled; if a positive recommendation is given, BAGHDAD 00002244 002 OF 002 the Presidency Council is responsible for placing it on the parliament's agenda. Each step in this process can be time-consuming. Currently, all three members of the Presidency Council are outside Baghdad. The Presidency Council office in parliament has confirmed it has received nothing on an SA referendum from the Cabinet to date. (Note: Parliament is out of session until September 8. End Note.) ¶6. (C) COMMENT: PM Maliki and GOI cannot afford to be seen as trying to kill this already postponed referendum, especially in the run-up to the January election. Many MPs, including Speaker Ayad al-Samarraie, are unenthusiastic about a referendum (refs A, B) but few are likely to risk being accused of not defending Iraqi sovereignty. The fact that Maliki is courting some political groups that support the referendum, including Sunni nationalists, into possibly joining him in a nationalist electoral coalition may add further pressure on him to move this subject forward. That said, by having the Cabinet, rather than parliament, originate the draft referendum law, Maliki will be better able to shape the text of the legislation. It will be important for the USG to work quietly with GOI and parliamentary leadership to shape what the referendum asks and what the answer will do. In the meantime, we need to stay out of the public debate to the fullest extent possible, other than to reiterate that we remain fully committed to the SA. END COMMENT. HILL