VOICES FROM BAGHDAD-AREA STREETS PRE-ELECTION

UNCLAS BAGHDAD 000022 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL SUBJECT: VOICES FROM BAGHDAD-AREA STREETS PRE-ELECTION REF: 08 BAGHDAD 4018 ¶1. This is an ePRT Baghdad-5 reporting cable. ¶2. SUMMARY: Following our previous report on local leaders, perceptions of the upcoming January 31 provincial council (PC) elections (reftel),we have recently focused on gauging the pulse of Iraqi voters throughout Abu Ghraib, Taji and Tarmiyah, three of Baghdad's rural districts (qadas) to the north and west of the capital. Evincing opinions similar to those of candidates, sheikhs and other persons of influence, ordinary voters are optimistic and looking forward to the PC elections at the end of the month. The overwhelming majority of shopkeepers, market-goers, barbers, tea-shop owners and fruit vendors with whom we met plan to vote, even if they are not clear on the mechanics of the open list/closed list ballot. Residents tended to identify mostly with prominent national figures (Saleh al-Mutlaq, PM Nuri al-Maliki, former PM Ayad Allawi, and others); very few could name specific candidates and most tended not to align themselves with political parties or coalitions. Surprisingly, many voters remain undecided. Residents overwhelmingly said they favored secular candidates and parties. Jobs, essential services and security are the issues of concern to voters in the region, and despite general optimism about Iraq,s future, many people were skeptical that the elections would affect their lives. Few believed that the process would be completely free and fair, though it does not appear that the potential for fraud will deter people from casting their vote. END SUMMARY. EAGER TO VOTE, BUT LACK INFORMATION ¶3. Voters throughout Abu Ghraib, Taji and Tarmiyah qadas are eager for the January 31 Baghdad PC election. Turnout is expected to be high; virtually all the local residents with whom we spoke told us that they, their families, their tribes, their friends and almost everyone they know plan to vote. Throughout the three qadas, electoral posters have suddenly appeared on all manner of walls, buildings and bridges in support of a wide variety of candidates and political lists. Despite this profusion of campaign literature in the area, most residents have learned about the elections through word-of-mouth and other informal networks of information (generally, tribal or familial); frequently, shopkeepers were not familiar with the candidates whose posters adorned their storefronts and neighborhood. No one had received any official information from the GOI or the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC, the body charged with overseeing elections in Iraq),and few expected to obtain their information through these channels. (Note: the IHEC only recently began its voter education efforts in print. End note). Additionally, very few residents were aware of the open-list/closed-list system through which they will be able to vote for either a party or a specific candidate. When informed of this, most people were pleased, and some who had expressed doubts about voting said that the ability to vote for an individual candidate might convince them to head to the polls. MORE SUPPORT FOR SECULAR CANDIDATES? ¶4. Whether Sunni or Shi'a, shopkeeper or teacher, rich or poor, few people in Abu Ghraib, Taji and Tarmiyah qadas are planning to support "religious" parties such as Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (ISCI),PM Nuri al-Maliki's Islamic Da,wa Party or the Iraqi Islamic Party. Regardless of sect, residents overwhelmingly view the 2005 election, which was boycotted by most Sunnis and dominated by the religious parties, as one of the primary reasons for the sectarian bias in the GOI and for the violence which wracked the country during 2005-2007. Most voters emphasized the need to elect "educated", secular candidates who put the needs of Iraq and its citizens ahead of all else. Yet many people are unfamiliar with the candidates running for Baghdad PC. Rather, they identify primarily with prominent national figures such as Saleh al-Mutlaq, Dr. Jamal Karbuli, or former PM Ayad Allawi, to name a few. This is reflected in many of the campaign posters littering the region's streets, which often show a candidate next to the well known head of his or her party. Indeed, many voters were unable to name a single candidate for PC even if they expressed strong support for one of the national leaders. A surprising number of people informed us that they remain undecided, and are waiting until the campaign unfolds to throw their support behind a candidate or party. Voters said they would weigh election information from diverse sources -- community leaders and media received equal mention -- but many lamented the lack of direct contact with the candidates. When asked about public debates among the candidates, a local media center director stated, "We haven't reached that point yet." SERVICES, JOBS, SECURITY ¶5. Not surprisingly, voters pointed to three issues -- improvements to essential services, an increase in job availability and the maintenance of the improved security situation -- as the subjects of most importance to them. While residents viewed the elections in a generally favorable light, few thought their everyday lives would improve greatly after January 31. Voters in each district agreed on the need to elect a candidate from their region in order that their "voice" be heard on the council, particularly on the allocation of funding for essential services projects. SKEPTICISM ABOUT ELECTION FAIRNESS ¶6. Despite optimism regarding the elections and the changes in the structure of provincial governance they will bring, voters across the board expressed doubts that the process will be completely free and fair. Few were aware of the IHEC,s role, and many requested direct monitoring by coalition forces or USG observers in the polling places. Skeptical that the ruling parties would permit a transparent and open election, some residents appeared resigned to what they termed &a foregone conclusion.8 During our visits, we noticed numerous instances of campaign posters having been ripped from walls. (Note: It did not appear that any particular parties or candidates had been singled out; posters from many parties, representing a wide range of factions, both secular and religious, looked to have been defaced. End note.) In addition, one of our local contacts running for the PC recently told us that he had been targeted and had his house ransacked by Iraqi Security Forces, alleging that such treatment was a direct result of his candidacy. He vowed to continue his campaign despite his "certainty" that the harassment will continue as the election draws near. CROCKER