KARBALANS KEEN TO CAST BALLOTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000219 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI IZ SUBJECT: KARBALANS KEEN TO CAST BALLOTS REF: BAGHDAD 178 Classified By: Karbala PRT Team Leader Don Cooke for reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d) This is a PRT Karbala Reporting Cable ¶1. (C) Summary: Karbala's citizens are eager to vote in the provincial elections on January 31. Preparations for "special needs" voting on January 28 are complete. Acting Provincial Council Chairman Abd al-Al al-Yasiri told the PRT on January 26 that there is nothing to prevent those voting on the 28th from voting again on the 31st. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visited Karbala the same day to campaign on behalf of Da'wa party candidates and, it is claimed, to counter efforts by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) to win over supporters of extremist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. End Summary. Anticipation and Anxiety ¶2. (C) During separate reconnaissance trips to the western (Ayn al-Tamr),central (Karbala City) and eastern (al-Hindiyah) sectors of Karbala Province on January 26, PRT members confirmed the locations of polling centers they will visit and observe on January 28 (the "special needs" voting date) and January 31. The atmosphere encountered throughout verged on festive, with campaign posters and flyers on virtually every wall and citizens--consistent with poll results projecting a strong turnout here (reftel)--expressing eagerness to cast their ballots. The anticipatory mood coincides with students' midwinter vacation, a convenient break enabling the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) to ready many local schools for use as polling centers. PRT members spoke with ISF and IHEC personnel at several of the "special needs" voting locations and found preparations--including the installation of appropriate signage and delivery of elections materials (but not yet ballots)--to be complete. ¶3. (C) Also on January 26, Acting Provincial Council (PC) Chairman (and ISCI sympathizer) Abd al-Al al-Yasiri requested to visit FOB Husayniyah for an "urgent" meeting. Upon arrival, he praised the PRT's support for the elections, in particular its role in observing the balloting. He then expressed concern about cheating by "parties that have control"--a clear reference to Da'wa--on Election Day. He said there is nothing to prevent those voting on the 28th from voting again on the 31st; the indelible ink used to mark voters' fingers easily can be removed in the interim, he insisted. The Acting Chairman added that he suspects polling center employees and security forces will be used to produce "fake results." Asked what he would recommend to prevent double-voting, Yasiri replied that no ISF personnel should have the day off on the 31st and that they should be monitored while on duty so they do not have a chance to slip away to cast additional ballots. The Team Chief promised to convey the Acting Chairman's concerns to the Embassy. (Note: Yasiri, who we reported in reftel has high blood-pressure, appeared anxious throughout the brief meeting, repeatedly flicking specks of lint from his suit. End Note.) Struggle of Sadr Supporters ¶4. (C) On January 26 Prime Minister and Da'wa honcho Nouri al-Maliki visited Karbala to campaign on behalf of Da'wa friendly tribal candidates in his home qadah of al-Hindiyah. According to provincial administration contacts and the local media, Maliki told tribal leaders not to believe candidates who promised to provide them or their followers with jobs in the ISF or in the government if elected. Without referring to it by name, the Prime Minister also blasted the ISCI- and Badr Corps-backed "Shaheed al-Mihrab" (Martyr of the Imam Ali QBadr Corps-backed "Shaheed al-Mihrab" (Martyr of the Imam Ali Shrine) list for violating the prohibition on using religious imagery in campaign materials, reportedly telling a tribal audience that "those whose idea of piety is using pictures of minarets" cannot be trusted. (Note: "Shaheed al-Mihrab" campaign posters feature a photo of the "martyr" Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim along with a photo of the Imam Ali Shrine's minarets. End Note.) ¶5. (C) Provincial administration contacts claim that another reason Maliki appeared in Karbala was to counter efforts by ISCI to woo supporters of extremist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. ISCI, in the person of local boss Hamad Sahib Mohammad (reftel),reportedly has been attempting to win over Sadrists through promises of a mutually beneficial, tactical alliance to prevent Da'wa from achieving greater political dominance here. According to independent tribal contacts, both Mohammad and Yasiri have been active in distributing cash, blankets, fuel and food among citizens known to sympathize with Sadr. During a visit to an impoverished neighborhood in south Karbala on January 26, dozens of residents were observed queuing up behind a flatbed truck piled high with propane tanks. Asked by a PRT member whence the propane originated, an elderly woman replied that it was "a gift from the Supreme Council" (ISCI) and, upon receiving her tank, proceeded to roll it away with her foot down the unpaved, sewage-filled street. Comment BAGHDAD 00000219 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The anticipatory mood here is remarkable, particularly in light of previous indications that Karbalans were skeptical of the electoral processes' fairness. Yasiri's hand-wringing notwithstanding, we believe the balloting will proceed according to the law and that irregularities will be minimal. Vote-buying allegations and other mischief undoubtedly will surface--along, perhaps, with additional details of the struggle between Da'wa and ISCI--in the post-election environment, but such shenanigans are unlikely to tarnish an event many here see as marking the true beginning of Iraq's autonomous future. End Comment. CROCKER