DHI QAR ELECTIONS UPDATE: SHELL GAME FAVORS DA'WA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000214

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: DHI QAR ELECTIONS UPDATE: SHELL GAME FAVORS DA'WA
IN DHI QAR

Classified By: PRT Deputy Team Leader Keith Heffern for reasons 1.4 (b)
(d)

(U) This is a PRT Dhi Qar reporting cable.


1. (C) Summary: All PRT contacts in Dhi Qar claim to want a
change from the current elected officials, but the educated
elite recognize that not many alternatives exist to the three
main religious parties (ISCI, Da'wa, and Fadhila). Out of 67
political parties on the Dhi Qar ballot, only the Communist
Party appears as a viable secular option for the educated
voter. Da'wa has likely created the best strategy to garner
the most votes. End Summary.

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Shell Game
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2. (C) Based on discussions with technocrats from the State
Board of Antiquities and Heritage and Dhi Qar University,
religious parties have changed names and candidates have even
reverted to given names (eliminating their known tribal
names) in an effort to confuse the voting populace and garner
votes. They claim that the deception is relatively obvious
for the educated voter, but will likely result in the
religious parties carrying the day. In particular, it was
thought that the new parties aligned with Da'wa were well
positioned in Dhi Qar for three main reasons: 1) voters
credit Prime Minister Maliki for bringing relative security
and stability; 2) Da'wa provides an alternative to ISCI, the
party of the current Governor, Aziz Alwan, who receives the
lion's share of criticism for any perceived failures of the
current provincial government; and 3) the Da'wa-backed Tribal
Support Councils have garnered a fair share of the rural vote.

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Communists Provide Secular Choice
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3. (C) Known as the birthplace of the Communist Party in
Iraq, Nasiriyah has long held a core group of educated
professionals who support them as an alternative to the big
three religious parties that currently dominate the
Provincial Council (PC). Persecuted and exiled by the Saddam
regime, the Communist Party did not fare particularly well in
the 2005 elections but have reorganized and gained more
traction as stability has returned to Dhi Qar. Generally they
pull favor based on their secular nature and their ability to
field technocrats. Hopeful contacts amongst the doctors and
archeologists known to the PRT, predict that the Communist
Party will gain two or three seats in the new PC.


4. (C) Comment: The ballot is confusing, not only due to the
vast number of candidates and parties but also due to the
shifting names of political parties and candidates using
names they are not known by popularly. The vast majority of
voters will probably not welcome the speculation that the
main religious parties will win in Dhi Qar, but the analysis
is probably accurate. People want change, but viable
liberal, secular alternatives have not yet taken root. The
potential for a strong independent tribal alliance, much
reported on in the early stages of the campaign, has been
co-opted by funding from the big three parties, especially
Da'wa. This is to be expected given that tribal leaders have
always tended to follow the money. End Comment.


CROCKER