GOI Budget Update: 2009 Mid-Year and First Look at 2010

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002115 SENSITIVE SIPDIS AIDAC DEPT PASS USTR STATE FOR NEA/I/ECON AND EEB/IFD/OMA E.O.12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV ETRD EAIR IZ SUBJECT: GOI Budget Update: 2009 Mid-Year and First Look at 2010 REF: (A) Baghdad 2106 (B) Baghdad 2008 (C) Baghdad 1633 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The delayed enactment of the 2009 budget law until mid-April contributed to a low rate of budget execution for the first part of 2009. Lower than expected oil prices and exports have contributed to significant deficit spending. Oil revenues were USD 3.8 billion less than anticipated for the first half of the year. While the Ministry of Finance (MoF) may look to rein in expenditures, oil revenues will be insufficient to prevent another deficit in 2010. The Cabinet has begun linking policy objectives to budget planning, looking to trim subsidies and charging for utilities in an effort to realign its expenditures. End Summary. 2009 Budget: Mid Year Review -------------- Expenditures ¶2. (SBU) Expenditures and revenues through May fell significantly below the expected levels for the first five months of the 2009 budget. (Note: the Iraqi fiscal year follows the calendar year.) Overall expenditures through May totaled about USD 12.4 billion, representing an execution rate of 21 percent, compared to an expected 41 percent. According to Ministry of Planning statistics (which tend to be higher than MoF data),ministries and provinces had executed 19 percent and 18 percent of their investment budgets respectively. ¶3. (SBU) A major reason for the low execution rate was MoF's reluctance to release funds until the Council of Representatives enacted the budget law in mid-April. Another factor was the global recession and dim outlook for oil prices, which also led the MoF to husband its resources. Revenues ¶4. (SBU) Revenues through May totaled around USD 13.4 billion, about 75 percent of the projected amount in the budget. Oil revenues through May were about USD 11 billion, or USD 4.1 billion less than projected. Through the first five months of 2009, oil prices averaged USD 40 a barrel and exports averaged about 1.79 million barrels per day (mbpd),compared with the budget's projections of USD 50 a barrel and 2.0 mbpd, respectively. In June, oil revenues rose to about USD 3.3 billion due to higher prices and sales. Nonetheless, oil revenues as of mid-year are still USD 3.8 billion below the budget's projections. Budget Outlook ¶5. (SBU) Government expenditures are likely to increase in the coming months. In May, the first full month after the budget law was passed, expenditures were about USD one billion higher than the monthly average during the first quarter. Early returns from the Ministry of Planning (MoP) on investment expenditures in June also show a rise, with ministries and provinces raising the budget execution rate another 10 percentage points, having spent 30 percent of the total budget. ¶6. (SBU) Even with recent increases in oil prices and sales, the GOI still faces a challenging budget year. If: (a) oil prices stay at present levels (world prices at around USD 66 a barrel); (b) exports average 1.8 million barrels a day over the second half of the year; and (c) the GOI executes 100 percent of its budget, the deficit would likely reach USD 18 billion. If July's oil revenue exports, which look likely to hit a recent record, are maintained for the rest of the year, the picture would improve only slightly. Given these circumstances, MoF will likely keep a tight rein on expenditures, ensuring that ministries' balances have been drawn down and funds have been used for authorized expenditures before releasing more funds. Any MoF savings would go toward funding the Qreleasing more funds. Any MoF savings would go toward funding the 2010 budget, which will be constrained by the GOI's limited means to address any financing gap. 2010 Budget: First Look -------------- Budget Strategy and 2010 Assumptions ¶7. (SBU) In June, MoF submitted a budget strategy for 2010-2012 to the Council of Ministers. The strategy's elements were gathered from weekly MoF-chaired meetings with ministries. For 2010, MoF has assumed average oil prices of USD 58 a barrel and average export sales of 2.15 million barrels a day. Even assuming that BAGHDAD 00002115 002 OF 002 expenditures would not rise next year, the oil price/export assumptions (and the estimate of a modest USD 5 billion in non-oil revenues) would leave a budget deficit of around USD 8 billion. Cabinet Energized ¶8. (SBU) The Cabinet has asked the High Economic Committee, composed of selected ministries and the Central Bank of Iraq, to examine the 2010-2012 budget strategy. According to one GOI official, the strategy came across as "a bunch of numbers," rather than reflecting longer-term plans and aspirations. For example, subsidies, such as importing refined fuel for GOI use and the ration card, are not eliminated or reduced. User fees are still not established for electricity and water. And some investment projects should be funded either by public-private partnerships or the private sector. ¶9. (SBU) Security would continue to be the budget's highest priority, according to a GOI official participating in the Cabinet discussions. He added that greater emphasis should be given to health and education. Commenting that operational expenditures have risen due to sizable salary increases in recent years, the official said the government should freeze hiring and trim automatic annual salary increases, thereby giving more room for necessary investment expenditures. ¶10. (SBU) The Council of Ministers also has tinkered with the oil assumptions in the budget strategy, raising the projected price per barrel to USD 60 and exports to 2.2 million barrels a day. Under these assumptions, oil revenues would add another USD 2.5 billion in the budget. Next Steps ¶11. (SBU) The MoF asked spending units to submit their budget requests by mid-July and maintain expenditures to this year's levels. According to MoF contacts, budget negotiations will begin earnestly this month. MoF plans to submit a budget to the cabinet by September. The cabinet, according to the Financial Management Law, should submit the budget to the Council of Representatives by October 10. Outlook ¶12. (SBU) The relative lack of GOI resources will constrain expenditure spending for the rest of the year and into 2010. Whether the GOI will have sufficient resources in reserve to fund the deficit in 2010 remains unclear. Negotiations on an IMF Stand By Arrangement (SBA) could yield USD 5.5 billion over the next eighteen months, which could fill much of the expected financing gap. The Fund has suggested that GOI authorities encourage others, particularly the World Bank, to also lend budget support. The introduction of supplemental budget legislation for this year (ref. A),however, has undermined GOI assertions that it is following a fiscal prudent policy and could complicate completing the SBA. Hill