MEK IN CAMP ASHRAF: NO GAME PLAN IN SIGHT FOR GOI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002072 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/02/2019 TAGS: PHUM PTER PGOV IR IZ SUBJECT: MEK IN CAMP ASHRAF: NO GAME PLAN IN SIGHT FOR GOI REF: BAGHDAD 2059 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: A/PMA W.S. Reid III for reasons 1.4(b)&(d). ¶1. (C) Summary. On August 2, USG officials met with GOI Ashraf Committee Chairman Ali Abdul Amir al-Yassery to discuss the GOI's near-future plans regarding the standoff with the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK) in Ashraf. (Note: The GOI has changed the name of Ashraf to Camp New Iraq. End Note.) Al-Yassery stated the situation remains calm with occasional flare-ups by the MEK when they become aware there are media on the scene. He informed USG officials that the GOI planned to drop leaflets on Ashraf and use loudspeakers advising the MEK residents that their treatment by the GOI will be in accordance with Iraqi law, the Iraqi Constitution and the GOI's international obligations. Al-Yassery further advised that the GOI still intends to move the MEK residents to Camp Echo (Diwaniya Province) in November, when the transfer from the USG to the GOI is complete. Al-Yassery declined, on legal grounds, the USG's offer of medical assistance to the 32 MEK detainees currently in the GOI's custody, stating they had refused medical care from the GOI and could not be moved due to ongoing investigations by the Iraqi judge. Since neither party is inclined to see the other as offering something it desires, we see future violent clashes likely as the GOI and MEK test each other's resolve. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On August 2, USG officials met with al-Yassery to discuss the GOI's future plans in regards to MEK residents. Al-Yassery asserted that the plans of the GOI had not changed - they intended to relocate the MEK to Camp Echo, located in Diwaniya Provence, once the camp has been vacated by U.S. forces in November. Acting Pol-Mil Couns warned, "if this is the extent of your future plans, you are underestimating the resolve of the local MEK and their international political arm, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)." USG officials further stressed that, by sticking to this ill-conceived plan, the GOI is risking more clashes with the MEK residents. ¶3. (C) Al-Yassery did not appear to understand the precariousness of the GOI's position, claiming the situation at Ashraf had calmed. However, he noted that at times the MEK has become agitated, only demonstrating when they see the media in the Ashraf area. Al-Yassery appeared to believe that information is all that is needed for the MEK residents to agree to the GOI's plan for them, stating the GOI plans to drop leaflets to the residents and use speakers to assure the residents that the GOI will treat them in accordance with Iraqi law, the Constitution and Iraqi's international obligations. ¶4. (C) USG officials informed al-Yassery that of the initial 12 MEK residents transported to Balad Air Force Base for treatment, one died enroute and three were returned on August 1 to the GOI's custody. They added that four additional MEK residents had been transported to Balad, again on August 1, with skull fractures, stating their conditions had deteriorated. USG officials conveyed MNF-I CG Odierno's offer to treat the injured MEK residents currently in the GOI's custody. After treatment, they assured the GOI they would be returned to the GOI's custody. However, GOI officials rejected this offer, claiming the detainees are refusing GOI medical treatment and, under Iraqi law, the court will not allow the detainees to leave pending further judicial review. ¶5. (C) Regarding the numbers of MEK residents allegedly Q5. (C) Regarding the numbers of MEK residents allegedly killed by the GOI, GOI officials stated that the MEK had allowed them to see the remains of the MEK killed during the clashes with the GOI. GOI officials alleged that five of the seven remains had undergone proper Islamic burial preparation (shrouded),while the other two remains appeared uncovered and neglected and were lying on open gurneys in another room. (Note: These two bodies were not shown to the visiting USG team on July 31. End Note.) The GOI stated these two sets of remains were not shrouded and displayed a note in Persian on their heads. He claimed the note read "traitor," in accordance with MEK treatment of past defectors, but admitted he could not read Farsi. Al-Yassery advised that COL Sa'di had allowed the MEK residents to bury two of their dead, although it was against Iraqi law to bury remains without an official death certificate. Ashraf Leader Madame Mojgan Parsaie disputed this assertion in a letter to acting Pol-Mil Couns, claiming the GOI had taken over the cemetery and were preventing the burial of the MEK resident's remains. ¶6. (C) UNAMI on August 2 postponed its scheduled trip. GOI officials did not agree to allow UNAMI officials access to MEK residents for interviews. USG officials asserted they BAGHDAD 00002072 002 OF 002 could provide transportation for UNAMI officials, if requested. USG officials explained that the U.S. was abiding by the GOI stipulation that the local TF-134 troops could only take the UN representatives to the GOI's current commander at Ashraf, COL Sa'di Habib Hussein al-Dulaymi. USG officials informed al-Yassery that UNAMI officials were very disappointed the GOI had not approved access to the MEK residents and could return to speak with the GOI about this issue. They advised al-Yassery to speak with the UNAMI and other international organizations about the ground rules for future trips to Ashraf. The GOI claimed the Minister of Human Rights had already met with UNHCR and ICRC regarding the MEK residents. ¶7. (C) Comment. The GOI continues down the path to further clashes with the MEK residents. The PM's public rhetoric is polarizing the situation further. Al-Yassery claims the GOI's plan to relocate the MEK residents to Camp Echo is on track, ignoring the likelihood that the MEK residents will fight any forced relocation and some may prefer to die in Ashraf rather than move. The GOI's rejection of USG medical assistance for the MEK residents detained by the GOI is worrisome. A number of the detainees have what appear to be broken arms or elbows; others with claimed cardiac or circulatory ailments appeared to be in need of regular ongoing medical treatment. Al-Yassery's claim that the court will not allow transfer for medical treatment was not persuasive. Based on the MEK's continued dismissal of the GOI dialogue overtures and the GOI's continuing plans to move forward with eventual relocation, we see little likelihood of a shift away from eventual renewed violent clashes. End Comment. FORD