MEK IN CAMP ASHRAF: CONFRONTATION LOOMING?

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002009 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2024 TAGS: PHUM PREL PTER PINR IR IZ SUBJECT: MEK IN CAMP ASHRAF: CONFRONTATION LOOMING? REF: A. BAGHDAD 1971 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. IIR 7 921 1175 09 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Robert Ford for reasons 1.4(b)&(d). ¶1. (S/NF) Summary. In a direct exchange between the GOI Ashraf Committee and the residents of Camp Ashraf, Committee Chairman Ali Abdul Amir al-Yassery announced the imminent arrival of a new site commander, plans to locate an Iraqi police station (IP station) on Camp Ashraf, and future relocation of camp residents to an alternative location in Iraq. His declarations were met with fierce objection from Madame Mojgan Parsaie, leader of Camp Ashraf. She asserted that resident relocation and placement of an IP station on Camp Ashraf were non-negotiable, countering that the residents were no longer seeking legal status in Iraq or a third country and instead claimed their desire was to return to Iran. End Summary. ¶2. (S/NF) On July 26, the GOI Ashraf Committee met with a delegation of Camp Ashraf residents, led by Madame Parsaie. GOI Committee Chairman al-Yassery made it clear that the GOI intended to place an IP station on Camp Ashraf, stating the camp was like any other Iraqi town and required a police station. Madame Parsaie appeared confused by this assertion, stating the residents are unarmed and did not have status in Iraq. She claimed that any insertion of GOI forces onto the camp will be met with resistance. ¶3. (S/NF) Al-Yassery also informed the group that the GOI intended to relocate camp residents to another location in Iraq for security purposes. He stated that Camp Ashraf is not safe and under Iraqi law this is justification for relocating the residents. (Note: Post has received an information report that the Qods Force is sending individuals into Iraq (Diyala Province) to recruit and train individuals to attack Camp Ashraf. (See ref. B.) End Note.) (Comment. While al-Yassery cites security as reason for the relocation of the residents, Post assesses that any security risk to the residents will grow only gradually, there is not an imminent threat. End Comment.) He stated that once the residents relocated it would be easier for them to receive support from international organizations like UNHCR and the ICRC for possible relocation to a third country. ¶4. (S/NF) Madame Parsaie's response appeared to surprise the GOI. She stated the residents no longer wished to relocate to 
a third country, revealing that the residents wished to return to Iran under certain conditions. This return would only take place after the Government of Iran provided written, signed assurances to the residents and international organizations. (See ref. A.) Once these assurances were received, residents would begin returning to Iran in groups of 100. Al-Yassery appeared unsure how to respond to this proposal. ¶5. (S/NF) Regarding the new site commander, Al-Yassery informed the group that COL Sa'di Habib Hussein al-Dulaymi would be deployed to Camp Ashraf on Tuesday, July 28. (See ref. A.) Madame Parsaie again informed him that no Iraqi forces would be allowed to enter Ashraf. Al-Yassery countered this was a decision of the Iraqi government and Camp Ashraf is Iraqi soil. Madame Parsaie suggested that instead of focusing on entering Camp Ashraf and pressuring camp residents the GOI should focus on the proposal put forward by the residents. She also informed the group that the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK) leadership, acting through its political arm the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI),will release a statement to the international Q(NCRI),will release a statement to the international community on Wednesday, July 29, informing them of the residents' desire to return to Iran and their conditions for return. Al-Yassery appeared to discount Madame Parsaie's fervor and concerns, stating, "the pressures are in your mind." With this dismissive response, Madame Parsaie ended the meeting. ¶6. (S/NF) Comment. Tuesday's arrival of the new site commander and his possible attempts to enter Camp Ashraf could lead to a violent confrontation. EmbOff does not anticipate that the resident group in opposition will be any larger than those in earlier confrontations (i.e. hundreds of MEK). However, Camp Ashraf residents stressed that they would not permit the entrance of GOI forces onto the camp. Meanwhile, GOI officials have made clear in the past that their patience with MEK intransigence is coming to an end. It is also apparent that any confrontation with the GOI on Tuesday will be used by the MEK as a propaganda tool to convince the international community that Camp Ashraf in indeed under siege from the GOI and that residents merely wish to return their homeland and are being prevented by the BAGHDAD 00002009 002 OF 002 GOI from doing so. Post has warned the MEK that resistance to GOI efforts could lead to violent confrontation. End Comment. FORD