C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000198

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINS IZ
SUBJECT: ANBAR LOOKS AHEAD TO AN ORDERLY ELECTION, AND A
TRANSITION

REF: A. 08 BAGHDAD 3928

B. 08 BAGHDAD 3871

C. 08 BAGHDAD 3677

D. 08 BAGHDAD 3626

E. 08 BAGHDAD 3620

F. 08 BAGHDAD 2953

Classified By: PRT ANBAR LEADER JAMES SORIANO FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (
d)


1. (U) This is a PRT Anbar reporting cable.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Anbar is on track for an orderly election,
according to recent soundings of the Governorate Elections
Officer (GEO) and local security officials. The GEO says
that the parties have thus far brought only minor campaign
infractions to his attention. Anbar's clerics are
encouraging citizens to vote, a turn-around from the January
2005 provincial election which was widely boycotted. In
recent polls, high levels of dissatisfaction with the
provincial government and with essential services mark the
public mood in the waning days of the campaign. Tribal
affiliation and technocratic credentials are dominant
campaign themes. The once-dominant governing Iraqi Islamic
Party (IIP) has entered into a coalition with a tribal
political entity; it is not running under its own name. It
appears that the election will result in the IIP's
relinquishment its 2005-08 control over the Provincial
Council as other parties are expected to win Council seats.
END SUMMARY.

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ELECTION DEVELOPMENTS
--------------


3. (SBU) Anbar Province is on track for an orderly election,
according to our soundings over the past week with the
Governorate Electoral Office, security officials, and
clerics. GEO Director Khalid Rajab told us at a January 15
meeting in his Ramadi office that the campaign period to date
has been uneventful and "calm." He did not raise any major
security concerns as potential issues and believes that
campaigning will remain orderly for election day (Refs B
through E).


4. (SBU) Khalid said that he met recently with
representatives from ten political entities to discuss "minor
campaign violations." The most common infraction, he said,
was the display of campaign posters on government buildings.
He specifically noted that he has cited the Iraqi Islamic

Party (IIP) and its main opposition, the Iraq Awakening
Conference, or Muatamar Sahwa Al-Iraq (MSI), for such
violations. Thousands of campaign posters and banners are
posted throughout the city, but the walls around the
provincial government center appear to be poster-free.


5. (C) Khalid later participated in a Provincial Security
Council meeting hosted by the Commanding General at Camp
Ramadi on January 20 to review security planning. During the
two-hour meeting, Khalid and Iraqi police and army officials
discussed election-related security plans, logistics for
transporting election materials to and from the polling
sites, and related issues. Overall, the security officials
appeared to be prepared for election day, and it was apparent
that Khalid's office has been coordinating with them.

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THE MOSQUE
--------------


6. (SBU) Khalid pointed out that Anbar's office of the Sunni
Endowment has issued a fatwa permitting Sunnis to vote in the
upcoming elections. Such a development contrasts favorably
to the position of the mosque in January 2005 when many
preachers urged a boycott of the polls in the provincial
elections of that year.


7. (SBU) The head of the Sunni Endowment, Sheikh Abdullah
Jallal, acknowledged to us on January 19 that the province's
clerics support wide participation in the election,
describing it as the province's first democratic one. His
associate, theologian Dr. Thamer Ibrahim Thaher, echoed the
sentiment, saying that having a democratic election "is a
Qsentiment, saying that having a democratic election "is a
victory in itself." Abdullah and Thamer will visit the U.S.
as part of the International Visitor Program.

--------------
THE PUBLIC MOOD
--------------


8. (C) Going into the final two weeks of the campaign, high
levels of dissatisfaction with the performance of local and

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national governments looms on the mind of the average voter.
A Gallup survey of some 2,400 Anbaris taken in December
indicates that 67 percent of those polled strongly disagreed
with the statement that the "provincial government represents
interests of people like you." A similar reading was
obtained to a question about the national government.


9. (C) On economic issues, 98 percent of those polled said
that they were "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied"
with job availability. Clean water had the highest
dissatisfaction score in the essential services category.
Some 92 per cent of those polled said that they were at least
"somewhat dissatisfied" with the availability of clean water.
Sewage had the second highest dissatisfaction score, with 89
per cent of the respondents saying that they were at least
"somewhat dissatisfied" with the availability of sewage
services. Electricity services drew a 75 percent
dissatisfaction rate.


10. (C) Such attitudes are not a revelation; they have been
apparent as long as such polls have been taken. Nonetheless,
high levels of dissatisfaction about responsive government,
jobs, and essential services are on the minds of the citizens
as election day approaches.

--------------
GUBERNATORIAL NOMINEES
--------------


11. (C) Although the election is for the Provincial Council,
some parties have gone as far as nominating candidates for
governor. MSI president Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha has presented
Qassim Al-Fahadawi for the top executive job. Qassim is
supported by the Fahad tribe and has extensive business and
engineering experience. Meanwhile, the Iraqi Tribes List,
consisting of former MSI insiders and affiliates, has tipped
Moyad Al-Thiyabi for governor. Moyad was formerly MSI's
secretary general and is a deputy Governor Ma'amoun Sami
Rasheed (REFS A, F).

--------------
POLITICS
--------------


12. (C) It is clear that the IIP's control of the Provincial
Council will end after the ballot count. The chief reason is
that the party is not fielding an independent list; it has
formed a bloc with a tribal-based entity called the Coalition
of Intellectuals and Tribes for Development (CITD), led by
Sheikh Amer Abdul al-Sulayman al-Assafi, one of Anbar's most
prominent sheikhs. In other words, due to its unpopularity
as the main incumbent party, IIP is not running as a
political brand, or burnishing its religion-based
credentials. Instead, it is emphasizing its tribal
connections (REF A).


13. (C) Meanwhile MSI, the IIP's main rival, has formed a
bloc with the smaller National Independent Gathering, a
technocratic grouping with ties to Anbar University. The
move to embrace technocrats no doubt reflects MSI's perceived
vulnerability among voters of being a party of modestly
educated tribal leaders. As noted above, former MSI
supporters have split off to form a rival political party.
It is not clear how that fragmentation will play out on
election day, but in the words of one tribal leader, "the
tribes are splintered." (REF A.)


14. (C) Thus, MSI and the IIP appear to have moved in
opposite directions in their election strategies -- the IIP,
previously the political home to many Anbari technocrats, has
taken on a tribal identity, whereas MSI, originally a tribal
security organization, has moved to appeal to technocrats
(REF A).


15. (C) The IIP and MSI are among 37 political entities on
the January ballot. Most are microscopic, but some of them,
such as The Reform and Development Party and the Iraqi
National Dialogue Front, may get enough votes to win seats on
QNational Dialogue Front, may get enough votes to win seats on
the new council. Over the past several months, we have
spoken with more than 15 of these parties, and our impression
is that they tend to be pragmatic in outlook, and cite
improving the local quality of life among their main
concerns. The views of Mohammed Fathi Abd Hantosh, head of
The Reform and Development Party, are typical of those we
heard. He talks of his party's intent to rebuild the
province through investment in agriculture and improving
basic services.

--------------
LOOKING AHEAD
--------------


BAGHDAD 00000198 003 OF 003



16. (C) Although it is not possible to predict the election
results, we can begin to discern the general shape of the
political future of the province:

-- The election campaign appears to be orderly apart from
minor complaints about infractions. The Anbaris are looking
forward to the poll. Some 360,000 resident have verified
their voter registration, a number that is one hundred times
the size of the electorate in the boycotted January 2005
provincial election. Today most Anbaris realize that the
election boycott was a strategic blunder.

-- The mosque, which played a role in fomenting insurrection
in 2005-06, has endorsed the election.

-- Tribal affiliation and technocratic credentials have been
dominant themes in the campaign. To date there has been
practically no evidence of pan-Arab, Islamist, or anti-Shi'a
rhetoric.

-- The IIP will relinquish control of the Provincial Council.
The period of one-party dominance of the Council is over.
Political power on the new council will likely be diffused
among a coalition of several entities and parties, including
some of the smaller parties.

-- The council's new leadership will likely be pragmatic in
outlook, thus continuing the present council's accommodation
with the GOI and open cooperation with Coalition Forces.
CROCKER