MAYSAN SADRISTS SEEK ENHANCED DIALOGUE WITH USG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000191 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR IR IZ SUBJECT: MAYSAN SADRISTS SEEK ENHANCED DIALOGUE WITH USG Classified By: PRT Team Leader Dan Foote for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). This is a Maysan PRT reporting cable. ¶1. (C/REL MCFI) Summary: Hardline Maysani Sadrist elements who previously eschewed engagement with the USG have expressed a desire to begin forging a relationship with the PRT, according to Zaid Khalaf al-Hoshi, current Provincial Director of Reconstruction and Development and moderate Sadrist aspirant to the Governor's office. In a January 21 meeting with the PRT, Sadrist Governor Adel Mohder al-Maliki apologized for the recent spike in attacks directed at Coalition Forces, blaming the increase on a small minority of outside political forces opposed to the Iraq-U.S. Security Agreement. The Governor stated he was not aware of any violations or intimidation tactics in the run-up to provincial elections. He estimated that nearly 50 percent of eligible voters would participate, and said he expected the provincial government transition would take place one month following the elections. Showing visible regret about his impending step down from the Governor's seat, Maliki vowed that he would remain politically active, whether in Maysan or Baghdad. End Summary. Hardline Sadrists Seek Engagement with USG -------------- ¶2. (C/REL MCFI) Following a PRT meeting with Sadrist Governor Maliki on January 21 at the Governor's office in Amarah, Zaid, leader of Maysan's moderate Sadrist-affiliated party Kafaat al-Maysan (Maysan Competencies) and current Provincial Director for Reconstruction and Development, told Team Leader (TL) that hardline Sadrist groups have requested that he facilitate engagements with the PRT in the near future. These groups include the two Sadrist parties backed by the Office of the Martyr Sadr (OMS),Nizaha Wa Bina (Integrity and Construction) and Tayar al-Ahrar al-Mustaqil (The Free Independent Trend). According to Zaid, these factions are looking to change course from their previously restricted dealings with the USG and to build a cooperative relationship with the PRT to better understand the U.S. role in Iraq. "Many agree with this idea," Zaid said, explaining that these groups have slowly come to realize the benefits of USG assistance, a message Zaid claimed the provincial government was trying to promote to all Maysanis. Zaid related that initial meetings may be possible prior to election day on January 31. �00A; Governor Apologizes for Spike in Violence -------------- ¶3. (C/REL MCFI) During the meeting with Sadrist Governor Maliki, TL expressed concerns about the recent spike in attacks directed at Coalition Forces (CF). Governor Maliki apologized and blamed the increase on a small minority of "outside political forces" opposed to the Iraqi-U.S. security agreement. He added that these groups wanted to destabilize the province and disrupt progress. Stating that instability could destroy all that has been accomplished and sends the wrong message to Maysanis, the Governor reiterated his support for the Security Agreement, affirming that it pointed Iraq in the "right direction." Elections on Track -------------- ¶4. (C/REL MCFI) The Governor stated that all parties, tribes, and civil society groups were actively engaged with the elections and challenged the notion that voter apathy was widespread. He indicated he was not aware of any major violations in the run-up to provincial elections and was optimistic about voter turnout. He estimated that 50 percent of the nearly 500,000 eligible voters in Maysan would vote on Qelection day. Governor Expresses Regret Over Vacating Office -------------- - ¶5. (C/REL MCFI) Governor Maliki congratulated TL and Ambassador Crocker on the inauguration of President Obama and said big things are expected of the new U.S. president. Nearing completion of his own term as Governor, Maliki said the provincial government transition would take place approximately one month following the elections. He admitted it would be difficult to give up the Governor's chair, adding that even in a democracy it was hard to leave a position of power. Responding to TL's inquiry of what his future plans were, Maliki explained that the situation in Iraq is very different from the U.S. "Stability creates choices, and in Iraq we do not have that many choices," lamented Maliki. He vowed that he would remain politically active, whether in Maysan or Baghdad. BAGHDAD 00000191 002 OF 002 Comment -------------- ¶6. (C/REL MCFI) Maysan's Sadrists, outwardly confident but inwardly concerned about popular reprisal at the polls in this uniquely Sadrist-controlled province, are running several parties in provincial elections, unlike their 2005 strategy of consolidating efforts under one umbrella party (Hussein Ideology Front). While PRT engagement with moderate Sadrist elements has been robust, the harder-line factions have to date maintained a comfortable distance from the USG. This effort at outreach to the PRT suggests a more serious Sadrist commitment to the political process and stronger collaboration with the USG, perhaps in an effort to bolster legitimacy in Baghdad. ¶7. (C/REL MCFI) Comment continued: Governor Maliki appears to have thrown his full support behind Zaid Khalaf al-Hoshi and Kafaat al-Maysan (Maysan Competencies; 856/390),which was not selected by the Sadrist bloc in the Council of Representatives (CoR) as one of the two preferred national candidate lists. While comprised of several known moderate Sadrist personalities, Kafaat al-Maysan is not explicitly tying its campaign to a Sadrist message, instead selling their platform as one of reconstruction and development. The PRT will explore engagements with the less moderate Sadrist groups in an attempt to better understand this change of course. Governor Maliki, who the PRT posits may have been forced to the sidelines by an undisclosed agreement with Prime Minister Maliki, is expected to stay strongly connected to Maysan,s future. End Comment. CROCKER