RRT ERBIL: LOCAL REACTIONS TO KURDISTAN REGION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001801 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM IZ SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: LOCAL REACTIONS TO KURDISTAN REGION CONSTITUTION REF: A. BAGHDAD 1800 ¶B. BAGHDAD 1799 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Peter Vrooman for reasons 1.4 (b). This is an RRT Erbil reporting cable. ¶1. (C) Summary. Public opposition to the newly-passed Kurdistan Region Constitution is primarily being voiced by the Change List, although intellectuals inside and outside of the parties view many articles as problematic. Journalists and physicians outside the parties have also publicly opposed the document. However, the majority of voters can be expected to vote in favor. End Summary. ¶2. (C) RRT Offs have sought out reactions to the Kurdistan Region Constitution, with contacts in Sulaimaniyah, Erbil and Dohuk. Views can be divided into three categories: the views of the average voter, the views of the intellectuals who follow political affairs, and the views of the opposition political parties and figures. The Average Voter -------------- ¶3. (C) Kurdistanis understand that the Iraqi Constitution calls for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to pass its own constitution. They are also aware that a regional constitution has been discussed in the Iraqi Kurdistani Parliament (IKP) for many years. They are not conversant with all of the articles of the Iraqi Constitution, and are not overly concerned that there may be discrepancies between the two documents. They may associate the passage of the constitution with political campaign that is in full swing, and understand that President Barzani will point to the constitution as a long-overdue confirmation of the region's rights and responsibilities. They would support the assertion that the areas falling within the disputed internal boundaries are historically and geographically part of "Iraqi Kurdistan" (this is how the KRG is described in the new constitution) as a statement of fact. The Intellectuals -------------- ¶4. (C) The views of the intellectuals who follow political issues are best expressed by PUK leader Fareed Assard. Assard is a member of the PUK Leadership Committee and head of a PUK think tank. As a member of a committee formed by the KRG to study the constitution, he had recommended against naming the disputed areas in earlier discussions of the draft constitution. Assard sees the Constitution as legally ambiguous and undemocratic. According to him, there is a conflict between whether the political system is parliamentarian or presidential, with the President being given such powers as the authority to dissolve parliament. Also, unlike the Iraqi Constitution, which places the Iraqi armed forces under the control of the Prime Minister, the Kurdistan Region Constitution gives that control over the Peshmerga to the KRG President. ¶5. (C) On the article naming disputed areas as "historically and geographically" part of Iraqi Kurdistan, Assard believes that this will tie the hands of future negotiators determining the status of disputed territories. If one of these areas were not to become part of the Kurdistan Region through the Article 140 process it could be considered a "betrayal" of the constitution, thereby raising the level of tension between the Government of Iraq and the KRG. And finally, Assard believes that the Parliament's term had expired when it convened to vote on the constitution, and the constitution is thus illegal. ¶6. (C) Dr. Nouri Talabany, an independent member of Parliament, and responsible for casting the lone "no" vote on June 24, explained his concern that the constitution places too much power in the Presidency. Dr. Talabany had resigned Qtoo much power in the Presidency. Dr. Talabany had resigned from the IKP drafting committee in late 2008 to protest the direction that the draft was heading and the interference by the political parties in the process. Views of the Opposition and Minority Parties -------------- ¶7. (C) Islamic opposition parties (part of a four-party coalition) can be expected to claim victory to their followers in having achieved last minute changes to the constitution which bring it in line with the Iraqi Constitution concerning Islam as the source of law. They will support a "yes" vote. However, Bazi Saeed, Head of the Dohuk Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) office confirmed that the Islamic parties had not, in fact, achieved all of their desired changes to the constitution. Many of their concerns are the same as those of the Change List. Of the many changes that the Islamic parties had proposed to President Barzani, only two were accepted. Sulaimaniyah Governor Dana informed IPAO that he understood that President Talabani had told the four parties to ensure support for a "yes" vote or risk having their stipends cut. (Comment: All political parties with members in the IKP receive a stipend from the KRG. End comment). ¶8. (C) Christian leaders )) while undoubtedly unhappy over last minute concessions to the Islamic groups )- will also support the constitution, given the very positive language in the Constitution as far as religious freedom and autonomy for minorities. ¶9. (C) The Change List, led by Nawshirwan Mustafa, has seized upon the constitution as a campaign issue, and is asking for it to be redrafted. According to Dr. Shaho Saeed, the official spokesman of the Change List, the Change List considers the IKP to have been an illegal parliament and passage of the constitution a dangerous precedent. According to him, the new constitution "illegally" allows the President to extend his term by two more terms. The authority and the power given to the President are "absolute." The authority and power given to the President are "absolute" because of the President's ability to dissolve the IKP and command the armed forces. Furthermore, the constitution "lays mines" between the central government and the KRG. Finally, the Iraqi Constitution calls for decentralization; the Kurdistan Region Constitution centralizes authority. (Comment: The new Kurdistan Region Constitution is silent on the question of Provincial Councils, although it does discuss local councils. End comment). Constitution as a Campaign Issue -------------- ¶10. (C) There are divergent views within the Change List as to the campaign strategy. According to Hishyar Abid, Head of the Change List in Dohuk, campaigning against the constitution will "set Nawshirwan up to failure" and will not be well understood by voters. Supporting this view, President Barzani's Chief of Staff, Dr. Fuad Hussein, told RRT Team Leader that the Change List's decision to campaign against the constitution was a gift to the PUK/KDP coalition. He stated that prior to this strategy shift, he had thought that the Change List might garner as many as 15 votes. But the new strategy would not be understood by the average voter: Dr. Fuad predicted now that the Change List would only receive enough votes for ten seats. Groups Outside of Government Oppose the Document -------------- --- ¶11. (U) Kurdistani newspaper Rozhnama reports that more than 50 journalists in Erbil expressed opposition to the constitution. Rozhnama also reported that 174 physicians issued a joint statement criticizing the parliamentary process by which the constitution was passed in the IKP (likely alluding to the extension of the current IKP session from June 4). Both groups called for further public consultation before holding a referendum on the constitution. Comment -------------- ¶12. (C) The last-minute passage of the constitution has set off an intense debate among a certain class of Kurdistanis, but a majority of Kurdistan Region voters can be expected to respond to the appeal of the President to vote in favor of the document, if it is put to a referendum. End Comment. HILL