NINEWA: VICE GOVERNOR CLAIMS KDP WILL WIN A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000161 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ SUBJECT: NINEWA: VICE GOVERNOR CLAIMS KDP WILL WIN A PLURALITY DESPITE DISENFRANCHISEMENT OF KURDISH IDPS BAGHDAD 00000161 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Robert S. Ford. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message. ¶1. (C) Summary: Vice Governor and KDP leader in Ninewa Province, Khasro Goran, said the KDP is deeply concerned that hundreds of thousands of Kurdish IDPs from before and after 2003 will not be able to vote in provincial elections. Goran said that, despite disenfranchisement of Kurdish IDPs, KDP will win a plurality of votes in the January 31 provincial election. Without firmly committing the KDP to any formal post-election alliance to form a working majority in the new Provincial Council, Goran said that Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) leader in Ninewa Mohammad Shaker would not be a "terrible choice" for governor. End Summary. -------------- KDP OBSTACLES IN NINEWA -------------- ¶2. (C) On January 8, PMIN met VGOV Goran at KDP headquarters in Mosul. Goran began by saying that IDP voting was a major concern for the KDP and the coalition it is a part of, the Ninewa Fraternity List (NFL). According to Goran, there are 130,000 displaced Ninewa Kurds in Dohuk and 50,000 in Erbil. Goran said that many of those IDPs were forced out during the reign of Saddam Hussein era and still had valid ration cards for Ninewa. Legally, Goran said, anyone with a valid ration card for Ninewa had a right to vote in Ninewa. (Note: The voters roll in each province is compiled from the records of the PDS, or "ration cards," as administered by the Ministry of Trade. Voters had the opportunity to confirm their registration on the IHEC voter's list during a registration update period in August 2008. If they want to vote at one of the special IDP polling centers, they must be on the MoDM list of registered IDPs. End note.) ¶3. (C) Goran also said the rivals of the KDP/NFL are in league with foreign intelligence agencies and/or terrorists. According to Goran, Turkish intelligence is supporting the Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF),Syrian intelligence is helping former Ba'ath party members, and Iranian intelligence is helping to further Syria's interests in Ninewa. In addition, Goran said that some of the parties competing in the elections are partners with the terrorists. ¶4. (C) Goran also said that Sunni Arab political entity Al-Hadba, which is led by Atheel al-Najaifi, is responsible for Article 50 of the Provincial Elections Law, which he said effectively disenfranchised the minorities of Ninewa. According to Goran, Al-Hadba was able to work with Sunni Arab allies in Baghdad to design Article 50 in such a way that minority representation would be significantly reduced. Goran pointed to the large number of minorities on the National Fraternity List to demonstrate the KDP stands for protecting the rights of all the province's minorities. -------------- POST-ELECTION ALLIANCES -------------- ¶5. (C) Goran predicted the NFL would capture the most votes, but no one party would win an absolute majority in the elections. For that reason it will be essential for parties to form post-election partnerships, Goran said. Goran also said that IIP leader Shaker would be an "okay" governor and was entirely preferable to Najaifi. Goran said that the NFL also would most likely partner with the winners of the three seats specially reserved for minorities; Iyad Allawi's Iraqiyya list; and other "small parties." Goran said that, QIraqiyya list; and other "small parties." Goran said that, after the NFL, Al-Hadba would probably take the second highest number of votes, adding that Hadba counts 70-80,000 former Ba'athists among its supporters. After Hadba, Goran said IIP, the Iraqi Supreme Council for Islam and Salih Mutlaq's Iraqi Front for National Dialogue would also perform well in elections. -------------- SECURITY AND ARTICLE 140 -------------- ¶6. (C) Goran said that security is the KDP/NFL's number one priority in the province and that it can only be stabilized once the disputed internal boundaries issues are solved. According to Goran, there were another 116 murders in Mosul in December. Goran said that thousands of civilians have been killed since 2003 and tens of thousands have left. 7.(C) PMIN underlined that any type of threats, intimidation, BAGHDAD 00000161 002 OF 002 or violence was detrimental to the elections. He noted that we had heard of problems in locales like Sinjar and Zumar. PMIN said that if the KDP is the target of threats or violence, it should report these to the IHEC, the police and the Embassy. PMIN said that he sympathized with the plight of the Saddam era IDPs but that by law it was too late to adjust the voters roll. CROCKER