MEK/CAMP ASHRAF - FORCED ENTRY INTO CITY LIKELY

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 001484 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2029 TAGS: PTER PHUM PINR PREF PREL IZ IR US SUBJECT: MEK/CAMP ASHRAF - FORCED ENTRY INTO CITY LIKELY AVERTED; MEK INCREASE DEFENSIVE BARRIERS Classified By: Political Military Minister Counselor Michael H. Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S/NF) Summary. After weeks of relative quiet, the Government of Iraq (GOI) has once again turned up the heat at Camp Ashraf. Following the forced retirement of former National Security Advisor Mowaffaq Al-Rubaie, Prime Minister (PM) Al-Maliki has reconstituted the GOI Ashraf Committee directly under the Office of the Prime Minister (PMO). One day after the first meeting of the new Committee, an Iraqi police (IP) emergency unit was dispatched to Camp Ashraf with orders to prepare to take control of the interior of the camp. The police have made a show of force but have not yet made a serious effort to enter the camp. With the MEK blocking entrance to the camp, hostile action by either the MEK or the police forces could easily escalate the situation. Post will continue to engage at the national level to ensure the GOI honors its humanitarian assurances regarding the Camp Ashraf residents. End Summary. ¶2. (S/NF) The GOI Ashraf Committee, formerly under the direction of recently retired National Security Advisor Rubaie, has been reconstituted directly under the Prime Minister (PM). Ali Abdul Amir Al-Yassery, the Director General of the PM's Situation Room, has been named chairman of the committee and former National Security Council members have been replaced by members of the Prime Minister's Office. This new committee, charged with closing Camp Ashraf and repatriating or resettling its 3400 residents, met for the first time May 27. Pol-Mil MinCouns and Commanding General Task Force-134 have offered to brief the Committee and to accompany the Committee members to Camp Ashraf to meet camp leadership and discuss the future of the camp and the residents. The Committee has thus far declined. ¶3. (S/NF) The latest flare-up began when 60-70 IP of the 2nd Emergency Battalion (EB) arrived at Camp Ashraf from Al-Khalis May 28 in 16 vehicles. (Comment: According to available information, the 2nd EB is subordinate to the Diyala Emergency Response Force, and through it to Ministry of Interior Quick Response Department. End Comment.) Upon arrival, the unit's commander LTC Ayad requested that the IA elements stationed in the Lord Slynn complex on the edge of the city of Ashraf redeploy to the perimeter of the camp so his forces could establish a base of operations. As they have done in the past when Iraqi security forces have made a show of force, shifts of Camp Ashraf residents (CAR) numbering between 50-100 began to maintain a presence at Lions' Gate, chanting in Arabic and Persian. The gate was closed and locked by the CAR, and vehicle obstacles were emplaced both inside and outside the gate. ¶4. (S/NF) On the morning of 5 June, the EB unit along with riot police dispatched by the Diyala Provincial Director of Police, Staff Major General Damouk, made an abortive move on the main entrance to Ashraf. (Comment: This action was possibly a test of the CAR's reaction. End comment.) The IA battalion commander later told U.S. forces in confidence that the EB battalion commander had told him the riot police would be back soon in greater numbers and with specialized equipment, including water cannons. The CAR increased the number of residents at the gate from approximately 200 to as many as 500, prepared vehicle tires soaked in what is assumed Qmany as 500, prepared vehicle tires soaked in what is assumed to be a flammable substance, and deployed tire spikes inside the gate. Forces of the EB remained stationed across the road through June 6, blocking all traffic attempting to enter or leave the city. End Comment.) ¶5. (S/NF) Al-Yassery told EmbOffs the evening of June 5 that he was unaware of the day's police actions, and had told the police not to engage the MEK without prior consultation with the U.S. He said he would contact the responsible parties and that offensive action by the IP was not imminent. No operation by the police occurred overnight or during the day on June 6. ¶6. (S/NF) Post will continue to engage at the national level to remind the GOI of its humanitarian assurances on this issue. FORD