BAGHDAD RESIDENTS DISCUSS IMPACT OF UPCOMING U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001312

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS MARR IZ
SUBJECT: BAGHDAD RESIDENTS DISCUSS IMPACT OF UPCOMING U.S.
FORCE WITHDRAWALS

Classified By: Classified by Acting Political Counselor John G. Fox for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Summary: In recent encounters with emboffs, Baghdad
residents and community leaders offered their views about
security and the effect of U.S. combat forces' withdrawal, to
be completed by the end of June, from urban areas. Iraqi
attitudes toward the withdrawal are somewhat schizophrenic -
pitting NATIONAL pride against sober assessments of
continuing threats. Many fear the Iraqi SECURITY Forces
(ISF) are not yet up to the task while others argue that the
absence of U.S. troops from the streets will take the wind
from the sails of extremists who depend on "foreign
occupation" as a rallying cry. End summary.


2. (C) During a May 7 visit to a social science graduate
school in Mansour, West Baghdad, a group of 15 Iraqi degree
candidates and academics (mainly Sunni Arabs, with a couple
of Shi'a and a Kurd) discussed with emboffs their views of
the current SECURITY situation and the U.S. combat troops'
withdrawal from their neighborhoods. A majority of this
group said they perceive recent declines in SECURITY and feel
less safe walking the streets of their neighborhoods than
they did a few months ago.


3. (SBU) All but one of this group said they are extremely
worried about the June withdrawal of U.S. combat troops.
Most attendees believed the Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM),the Shi'a
militia which terrorized many Sunni neighborhoods in West
Baghdad between 2005 and 2008, is dormant but still present.
The students and teachers fretted that JAM would emerge from
the shadows as U.S. troops pull out, and doubted whether the
Iraqi SECURITY Forces have either the will or the wherewithal
to challenge them.


4. (C) One Shi'a member of the group, originally from
Karbala, begged to differ. Iraq's SECURITY forces are
increasingly capable of maintaining law and order, he said,
and the time is right for CF withdrawals. Acknowledging the
help and sacrifices of the U.S. forces, "no one is happy with
foreign occupation," he added.


5. (SBU) On the margins of the Kadimiya District COUNCIL
sessions on May 16, poloffs heard a range of views about the
withdrawals. Kadimiya district, in North Baghdad, is
predominantly Shi'a, although the district also covers the
predominantly Sunni agricultural districts of Taji.
Kadimiya's gold-festooned shrine, which attracts Shi'a
pilgrims from all over Iraq, Iran, and elsewhere, has made it
a repeated target of choice for bombings by sectarian
extremists, including an April 28 suicide bombing near the
shrine which killed about 30 and wounded dozens more.


6. (SBU) SECURITY concerns overshadowed the proceedings of
the Kadimiya District Council's Essential Services Committee
meeting, which was held before a plenary session. Much of
the discussion revolved around coordination, and the lack
thereof, between the municipality and the ISF as DC members
sought to reopen streets sealed off by concrete barriers
installed as countermeasures against car bombings. Restoring
parking privileges, removing abandoned vehicles, and
facilitating the passage of city workers through check-points
were other security-related matters that concerned the
committee.


7. (C) Ali Sha'yia al-Shammari, chair of the District
Council's SECURITY Committee, told us that the authorities
are constantly working to strike the right balance between
facilitating public access to the shrine and minimizing the
risk of attacks it can attract. Shammari and Hamid
al-Bakhiti, Deputy Chair of the District Council, were
cautious in assessing the impact of coming CF withdrawals.
Qcautious in assessing the impact of coming CF withdrawals.
They expressed a strong preference that the gap be filled by
Iraqi Army (IA) units, rather than Iraqi Police (IP),whom
they view as corrupt and incompetent. (Note: Apparently
indicative of their status, IP recruits double as tea boys at
the district COUNCIL meetings. End note.)


8. (C) Shammari and Bakhiti privately worried that the IA
might not have enough units and equipment to effectively fill
the void that will be left in Kadimiya's neighborhoods when
U.S. forces withdraw. A U.S. Army officer helping to secure
the DC meeting told us that his working-level IA counterparts
privately hold the same view, hoping the CF withdrawals would
be put in slow-motion to give IA units more time to prepare.
These same working-level IA officers were loath to voice this
opinion in front of their superior officers, the U.S. officer
added. Shammari and Bakhiti admitted they took comfort in
the knowledge that U.S. units would be on Forward Operating
Bases on the edges of the city and available to assist as the
need arises.


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9. (C) Sayyed Amin, a District COUNCIL member from Taji, in
the mainly Sunni northern reaches of the district, strongly
believed that Sons of Iraq (or "Awakening Council") armed
neighborhood watch units needed to be kept intact for the
time being, notwithstanding GOI plans to integrate 20 percent
of them into the ISF and absorb the rest into public or
private sector jobs. In the last two years, the SOI had
succeeded in chasing al-Qaeda in Iraq operatives out of Taji,
Amin observed, and now is not the time to disband them.
Amin said he strongly hopes that the June withdrawal of U.S.
forces who have been mentoring the SOI would not damage the
program.


10. (C) Qays Jabbar, a civil engineer responsible for public
works projects in the Kadimiya district, told poloff he
strongly favors U.S. withdrawals and hopes they will proceed
on schedule. The withdrawals are essential for both the U.S.
and Iraqi Governments to preserve their credibility, Qays
said. They would also give the Iraqi SECURITY Forces a
needed opportunity to showcase their capabilities and earn
the public's trust. Above all, Qays underlined, the absence
of U.S. combat forces from Baghdad's streets would deprive
extremists of their principal excuse for violence, with the
net effect of greatly improving security.


11. (C) Opinion among political elites toward the withdrawals
is similarly divided. Hassan Deghan al-Janabi, a member of
the Iraqi Parliament's SECURITY and Defense Committee, told
poloffs on May 18 he is deeply worried about the withdrawals
and thinks the prospect of increased violence should outweigh
U.S. obligations to withdraw under the SECURITY Agreement.
The bottom line, he stressed, is that the ISF are not yet up
to the task of securing a country faced with myriad threats.


12. (C) Sa'ad Mutalibi, formerly on Mouafaq Ruba'ie's
National SECURITY COUNCIL STAFF and now an aide to the
Minister of State for NATIONAL Reconciliation, told poloff on
May 19 that, while he understands citizens' concerns, he
firmly believes the time is right for U.S. withdrawals.
"This will be an opportunity for the ISF to show it can
perform and force us Iraqis to solve issues we have been
putting to the side," Mutalibi stated. Mutalibi also echoed
the view that the absence of U.S. forces from the streets
would take the wind from the sails of extremists who live to
rail against the "occupation."
HILL